There are 50 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

What will Scotty do?

  • smileyman
  • Info N/A
Originally posted by Oakland-Niner:

1. You are my hero! I dont know where you find the time to research this stuff but it's appreciated.

Insomnia

Quote:

2. I wasn't agreeing or disagreeing with you just making a point about your argument

3. You dont need to include obvious star players (i.e. Gore and Addai) as everyone agrees its a good pick. The only people that need to make your list are guys that are back ups (and an explanation as to the quality of player ahead of them). Or, guys that are starters, but are not house hold names and obvious stars (i.e. Baas, Bathea). At that point you have to look at performance with the given opportunity.

Looking at that list I'd say it's fairly even. Some of those Colt players I listed as "backups" have only played in one or two games their entire careers. McC has a higher rate of players not being around but I think that a guy who plays in one game in 3 years is just about as worthless as someone who was cut and never resigned.

Quote:

P.S. Where did you get that Baas replaced Heitman?

In 2002 the center for the 49ers was Jeremy Newberry. Heitmann was drafted as a guard and played that spot for the first couple years when Newberry went down in 2004 Heitmann stepped in at center. Baas made his first start at RG in 2005 when Heitmann got moved to center full-time.

Got some of this from wikipedia. This site has an awesome list of team rosters going back to 1969 http://www.jt-sw.com/football/pro/rosters.nsf.
Originally posted by smileyman:

To say that McC is a POOR drafter is just not true.

I agree, McC is not POOR, he is AVERAGE (so far). But average isn't good enough.

The GM is the most important part of a good team, and we won't win big unless McC improves. I think that McC is a great scout, and simply needs a more experienced GM type to guide him to the right picks. But unless he improves, McC isn't good enough.
Originally posted by susweel:
Your argument holds no merit. Colts are probably the best team in the league so many there backups are better then many of our starters.

A bust for them is no longer a starter for us. Therefore the argument has basis because both teams are at least on the same level in terms of: a bust is a bust, starter is a starter, etc.

The difference is superstar talent, coaching, no major weaknesses, scheme consistency.
Looking over his past drafts, he seems to favor the powerful/bigger player over the speed demons with Daven Holly and Kory Sheets coming to mind immediately. Brandon Williams was brought in as a return specialist because he had notable return stats in college but he must not have had his head straight and been committed to pro ball and I think that's why he was let go. He has some talent as he was picked up by the Rams and apparently is now with the Steelers(?).

With that said, it's quite obvious to the common fan that there is a certain element of speed missing from the roster but specifically, scoring points. VD doesn't count because he rarely breaks tackles as originally advertised and Frank Gore gets caught from behind unless we play the 'hawks. Defensive speed is pretty good and usually you can contain vertical guys with proper zone depth and angles so I'd think the focus would be on offense. Although I'm not ruling out the no-brainer BPA pick of a CB or OT, I think he might trade down one of the 1st rounders and take one of these smaller HB/RS like McCluster or Jahvid Best. And it may seem like a reach when we do it. My take is that the defense is really close to peaking and taking off the pressure of field position and adding a homerun offensive element will do more for them than the addition of any one player could. That and we need to utilize the fullback position as an offensive threat once again otherwise we'll remain to be way too predictable with a FB in the game. Maybe we should look at the prospects there too.

FYI- His late rounders have some staying power to them. Shoot, Larry Grant is still on the Rams!
With the combine rapidly approaching, I thought that it might be timely to summarize what I have observed as Scotty's personel priorities. You can argue with whether or not you would have the same priorities. I believe that the better that you understand Scotty, the easier that it is to forecast his draft day behavior.

In order of importance:

1. FA is the most appropriate vehicle to fill immediate needs. The draft is about acquiring the best talent with a longer time frame in mind, thus BPA is the winning strategy for the draft. It's all about building sustainable excellence in terms of personel. BUT, the restrictive CBA situation makes this year's FA market much less attractive than normal.

2. Film doesn't lie. The more film available the better. Scotty is looking for CONSISTENT excellence. FA's have the most film available (so should be the lowest risk). College seniors have more tape available than college underclassmen. Singletary is not the only one with the philosophy of "Don't tell me, show me". Expect Scotty to prefer drafting seniors over slower-developing underclassmen (V. Davis, R. Smith, Rachal), at least in the early rounds.

3. All other things being relatively equal, size does matter. The larger player at any given position is likely to be more durable and thus a bvetter investment. Scotty is a Ron Wolf disciple, and Wolf had minimum size standards for most positions when he was re-building the Packers. Example: CB's must be at least 6' tall. During the Nolan years, this was described as "Jacksonville Envy", when JAX had the largest team in the NFL. Nolan is gone, but Scotty still believes in size. This doesn't mean drafting slow guys, but it does mean that someone who is "fast enough" with good size, would likely be preferred over the "fastest" guy, who might be a bit smaller. Remember that while Vernon Davis was freakishly fast, he was also freakishly strong with good size for his position.

4. Certain positions are easier to fill than others. "You can get guards" is a famous Scotty quote, and the club's low dollar expenditure for interior OL confirms this philosophy. Better to focus on OT's, and move them inside if they aren't quick enough to cut it on the edge. Don't expect a Round 1 pick to be used on an OG (Iupati). Likewise, Scotty seems to view FS/SS as positions where experience (trust) is more important than physical advantage, and developmental safeties can best be found by drafting big CB's who might not quite cut it at the CB position, or by using a low Round 7 pick, and bringing them along slowly without immediate expectations.

5. For the draft, anticipate positional turnover 1-2 years own the road. Remember that immediate needs are best filled by FA, as Scotty sees it. But consider that Franklin will be franchised in 2010. Having a back-up plan for NT beyond 2010 would be the responsible thing to do. I believe that this is why Maiocco mentions NT Dan Williams, who has had Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron coaching, as a legitimate Round 1 candidate for this Niner draft.

6. Scotty seems to share some of Nolan's belief about the importance of character, though maybe not to the same extreme. Don't expect Scotty to use an early pick on a questionable guy (Perrish Cox?), though maybe a Round 5-7 risk can be possible (example: Tarrell Brown). One way of quantifying character is to look at guys who were elected team captains by their college coaches and player peers (example: Manny Lawson).

7. Round 4-7 picks must be immediately strong ST players (primarily in coverage or as blockers). Don't expect any more Thomas Clayton's who don't contribute on ST. Only late-round exception might be a developmental QB.

Apply these criteria to your forecast for the Niner FA activity and draft. I find that they eliminate many of the supposed candidates.
Originally posted by jimbagg:
With the combine rapidly approaching, I thought that it might be timely to summarize what I have observed as Scotty's personel priorities. You can argue with whether or not you would have the same priorities. I believe that the better that you understand Scotty, the easier that it is to forecast his draft day behavior.

In order of importance:

1. FA is the most appropriate vehicle to fill immediate needs. The draft is about acquiring the best talent with a longer time frame in mind, thus BPA is the winning strategy for the draft. It's all about building sustainable excellence in terms of personel. BUT, the restrictive CBA situation makes this year's FA market much less attractive than normal.

2. Film doesn't lie. The more film available the better. Scotty is looking for CONSISTENT excellence. FA's have the most film available (so should be the lowest risk). College seniors have more tape available than college underclassmen. Singletary is not the only one with the philosophy of "Don't tell me, show me". Expect Scotty to prefer drafting seniors over slower-developing underclassmen (V. Davis, R. Smith, Rachal), at least in the early rounds.

3. All other things being relatively equal, size does matter. The larger player at any given position is likely to be more durable and thus a bvetter investment. Scotty is a Ron Wolf disciple, and Wolf had minimum size standards for most positions when he was re-building the Packers. Example: CB's must be at least 6' tall. During the Nolan years, this was described as "Jacksonville Envy", when JAX had the largest team in the NFL. Nolan is gone, but Scotty still believes in size. This doesn't mean drafting slow guys, but it does mean that someone who is "fast enough" with good size, would likely be preferred over the "fastest" guy, who might be a bit smaller. Remember that while Vernon Davis was freakishly fast, he was also freakishly strong with good size for his position.

4. Certain positions are easier to fill than others. "You can get guards" is a famous Scotty quote, and the club's low dollar expenditure for interior OL confirms this philosophy. Better to focus on OT's, and move them inside if they aren't quick enough to cut it on the edge. Don't expect a Round 1 pick to be used on an OG (Iupati). Likewise, Scotty seems to view FS/SS as positions where experience (trust) is more important than physical advantage, and developmental safeties can best be found by drafting big CB's who might not quite cut it at the CB position, or by using a low Round 7 pick, and bringing them along slowly without immediate expectations.

5. For the draft, anticipate positional turnover 1-2 years own the road. Remember that immediate needs are best filled by FA, as Scotty sees it. But consider that Franklin will be franchised in 2010. Having a back-up plan for NT beyond 2010 would be the responsible thing to do. I believe that this is why Maiocco mentions NT Dan Williams, who has had Monte Kiffin and Ed Orgeron coaching, as a legitimate Round 1 candidate for this Niner draft.

6. Scotty seems to share some of Nolan's belief about the importance of character, though maybe not to the same extreme. Don't expect Scotty to use an early pick on a questionable guy (Perrish Cox?), though maybe a Round 5-7 risk can be possible (example: Tarrell Brown). One way of quantifying character is to look at guys who were elected team captains by their college coaches and player peers (example: Manny Lawson).

7. Round 4-7 picks must be immediately strong ST players (primarily in coverage or as blockers). Don't expect any more Thomas Clayton's who don't contribute on ST. Only late-round exception might be a developmental QB.

Apply these criteria to your forecast for the Niner FA activity and draft. I find that they eliminate many of the supposed candidates.

Jim:
Can you take Mad Dogs 200 list and eliminate the ones who do not meet the above standards and then give us a draft board in a ranking similar to how you think Mc will seee things?
I don't pretend to be a draftnik, who watches lots of film on these college players. I study McCloughan. So, the best response that I can think of to the above request to filter MadDog's list (as of Feb 7), is as follows. Let's take the Niners pick spots and look +- 4 on MadDog's player list for that spot, and project how those players might fit the "McCloughan filter", as described earlier in this thread.

Pick #13:

Most likely:

ILB Rolando McClain - underclassman, but lots of championship-caliber film, vocal leader (like Spikes, unlike Willis), Saban's coach-on-the-field (potential green dot guy), film junkie, committed to football, great size for his position, a highly regarded position by Scotty.

OT Trent Williams - Senior, poor LT film but lots of supposedly good film at RT, the position for which he would be drafted (no position projection required). Is that RT film Round 1 caliber?

DE Jared Odrick - senior, very consistent film, held his own at Senior Bowl

Unlikely:

CB Haden - underclassman, talented but only average size for position, likely to be more highly valued by others and be gone by Pick #13.

WR Bryant - character issues, underclassman, not a highly-valued position, opted for WR over OT in 2009 draft, won't do that again.

RB Spiller - under-sized for RB position, no pass protection potential, not an every down player

OT Bulaga - underclassman, seemingly solid LT film, but have to project LT film to RT position (added risk), durability questions

OT Campbell - underclassman, raw and under-developed, very slim film bank, likely of no immmediate help in 2010 and with a lockout likely in 2011, this guy could take 4-5 years to generate ROI.

OG Iupati - "you can get guards", Round 2 OK, but no OG in Round 1.

Pick #17

Most likely:

OT Trent Williams - see above

DE Jared Odrick - see above

DT Dan Williams - senior, excellent coaching by Kiffin & Orgeron, lots of film in toughest conference, more NFL-ready than most college DL, rare opportunity to get a cornerstone player at a key position (NT).

OLB Brandon Graham - senior, lots of film vs good competition, has played before huge crowds, has performed well vs peers in Senior Bowl, consistency and film trump short height for OLB position.

Unlikely:

OT Bulaga - see above

OT Campbell - see above

OG Iupati - see above

DE Pierre-Paul - underclassman

DE Dunlap - character issues, underclassman

Don't have the time or the knowledge to go beyond the first 2 picks at this time.

[ Edited by jimbagg on Feb 20, 2010 at 11:24:32 ]
Jim:
That was very helpful. It gave me an evaluatory framework to process players from. It is clear to me that Mc is not a dummy. He has seen many picks and he has a lot of inside information. So some of his picks are a mystery to me, but may be perfectly clear from the process that he goes through. I love the draft and all of the evaluations that are needed in order to help the team.
Thanks again.
Jim

Awesome list and analysis. I only disagree with you on Haden. I think if he's there at #13 he becomes a 49er. They said the same things about Crabtree that you're saying about Haden. Too small/underclassmen. He's a top-10 pick and I think if he falls we draft him the same way we took Crabtree last year. Haden also played in the Florida defense, talk about championship caliber.
Great Job, Jim!

Nice framework to follow.

I still want Iupati!

  • DVDA
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,309
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Jim

Awesome list and analysis. I only disagree with you on Haden. I think if he's there at #13 he becomes a 49er. They said the same things about Crabtree that you're saying about Haden. Too small/underclassmen. He's a top-10 pick and I think if he falls we draft him the same way we took Crabtree last year. Haden also played in the Florida defense, talk about championship caliber.

Crabtree is far from undersized.
Originally posted by 23zack80:
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Jim

Awesome list and analysis. I only disagree with you on Haden. I think if he's there at #13 he becomes a 49er. They said the same things about Crabtree that you're saying about Haden. Too small/underclassmen. He's a top-10 pick and I think if he falls we draft him the same way we took Crabtree last year. Haden also played in the Florida defense, talk about championship caliber.

Crabtree is far from undersized.

I agree, but one of his knocks coming out was that he wasn't fast enough to be a speed guy and not big enough to be a possession guy.

I'm not comparing Crabtree to Haden. I'm comparing the situations.
  • DVDA
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,309
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Originally posted by 23zack80:
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Jim

Awesome list and analysis. I only disagree with you on Haden. I think if he's there at #13 he becomes a 49er. They said the same things about Crabtree that you're saying about Haden. Too small/underclassmen. He's a top-10 pick and I think if he falls we draft him the same way we took Crabtree last year. Haden also played in the Florida defense, talk about championship caliber.

Crabtree is far from undersized.

I agree, but one of his knocks coming out was that he wasn't fast enough to be a speed guy and not big enough to be a possession guy.

I'm not comparing Crabtree to Haden. I'm comparing the situations.

I heard that he wasn't a burner which everyone knows but I didn't hear anyone say he couldn't be a posession receiver. He may not be that tall but he's still a pretty big receiver at 6'1" 215.

I don't see what situations you are comparing here. Crabtree was clearly one of the best players in the draft last year, the same can't be said of Haden.
Originally posted by 23zack80:
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Originally posted by 23zack80:
Originally posted by foreign49er:
Jim

Awesome list and analysis. I only disagree with you on Haden. I think if he's there at #13 he becomes a 49er. They said the same things about Crabtree that you're saying about Haden. Too small/underclassmen. He's a top-10 pick and I think if he falls we draft him the same way we took Crabtree last year. Haden also played in the Florida defense, talk about championship caliber.

Crabtree is far from undersized.

I agree, but one of his knocks coming out was that he wasn't fast enough to be a speed guy and not big enough to be a possession guy.

I'm not comparing Crabtree to Haden. I'm comparing the situations.

I heard that he wasn't a burner which everyone knows but I didn't hear anyone say he couldn't be a posession receiver. He may not be that tall but he's still a pretty big receiver at 6'1" 215.

I don't see what situations you are comparing here. Crabtree was clearly one of the best players in the draft last year, the same can't be said of Haden.

Crabtree was supposed to go #7. In most mocks I see, Haden is going at around there in a much deeper draft. He's the best CB in the same way that Crabtree was the best WR.

I remember numerous experts saying that he didn't have elite height. Crabtree was measured at 6 foot 1 at the combine. Elite top-10 receivers usually have elite height to go along with their elite hands. Ideal height would be around 6' 3', so for a receiver he was "undersized" in the same way that Haden is. He's really not that short for a CB:

Haden - 5' 11"
Asante Samuel - 5' 10"
Darelle Revis - 5' 11"
Nmamdi - 6' 2"
Champ - 6' 0"
Clements - 6' 0"
Spencer - 6' 1"
Walt Harris - 5' 11"

You get my point... It's not like he's tiny, he's just not "ideal" size the same way that Crabtree isn't "ideal" size. That doesn't mean they aren't big enough to excel at the position.
I doubt that McCloughan has the wisdom to choose who might be winners. IMO Walsh would draft and control guys like TO and Haley. Both are eerily the same in looks, size and physique and temperament. I think the top guys often are on the edge of being very rational but guys like Walsh and Lott and Montana never had much problems with those guys because I think they were respected for who they were. Not for being able to whip them but that they would mean and do what they said. I think players respect guys who walk the walk even if it is hairy and painful. We need a few of those on the edge guys and Singletary has that sort of walking the walk type of personality needed for running a team like that. He just needs to realize that he is not Walsh and never will be. He needs offensive brains to succeed and that means hire the best he can find and keep his mouth shut about what that guy might do for the most part.
Search Podcast Draft Forum Commentary News Shop Home