MadDog49er 2019 NFLDraft Niners Review

Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.

-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soon that's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I don't understand picking Deebo at 36 when there are so many good WRs available that there's a good chance he could have been had in the 50s or even at 67.

nah Hawks would have taken him next pick.

Instead they traded down and took Metcalfe

I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

It's "couldnt care less".. just warning you cause there are several grammar nazis on here.

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

It's "couldnt care less".. just warning you cause there are several grammar nazis on here.

I was getting ready to send in the 'gestapo'. Just kidding. You're right but that's probably one of the most common errors we make. It's so common that it's nearly acceptable either way. Like nuclear and nucular.

Originally posted by MrOrange:
I don't necessarily have a problem with the guys we got, just where we got them. I mean, I get it....every team, evaluates and rates players differently (based on the scheme they run and need) than other teams, but you have to be aware of a players' value to other teams....that way you're not overdrafting players. I'm sure they do that, but it just doesn't appear that way.....The consensus is that we reached on almost every player....whether it was a little or a lot. That disappoints me more than anything else.

Even if this turns out to be an awesome draft in hindsight...it doesn't change the fact that we overdrafted players AT THE TIME and possibly could have gotten better value.

This is pretty much my position on many of the draft picks. Everyone boasts great potential more or less. But it's the where. Now if everyone succeeds, who cares. But that isn't likely. Not even for the best talent evaluators. I wish they worked the boards more. It's not a stretch to say they could've got everyone they drafted added either more picks for this year or next year.

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

Baalke used the right idea wrong. There was no fit for Tank in our defense. I can't see him as a stand-up 3-4 OLB and we saw how the 3-4 DE experiment went. The 15 pick thing matters less once you get to day 3, but on days 1 and 2 when you can move down and pick up draft capital that can land you starting caliber talent, it's bit wasteful. With that said, we have several promising position groups- Dline (FINALLY), RB, QB, WR, and to a lesser extent, LB. Time to show and prove.

Man, looking back at MD's previous drafts and majority of the teams missing on majority of the players, I think the top requirement in the formula of drafting should be the desire of the player. Yes, talent is always needed to win championships but I think teams can get more hits than misses in the draft if they value desire first.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

Baalke used the right idea wrong. There was no fit for Tank in our defense. I can't see him as a stand-up 3-4 OLB and we saw how the 3-4 DE experiment went. The 15 pick thing matters less once you get to day 3, but on days 1 and 2 when you can move down and pick up draft capital that can land you starting caliber talent, it's bit wasteful. With that said, we have several promising position groups- Dline (FINALLY), RB, QB, WR, and to a lesser extent, LB. Time to show and prove.

I think teams miss so often on drafts because they don't draft according to fit or they don't know what fits in the system. Kyle makes it very clear to John the exact type of player he is looking for. That means they will be drafting players "too soon" because if a player fits that profile, he will help the 49ers.

So if they don't take the players they want at the pick they want and trade down. Then no one will be saying they should have just drafted Hurd look at him killing us in Seattle. It just never ends.

Originally posted by Joecool:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

Baalke used the right idea wrong. There was no fit for Tank in our defense. I can't see him as a stand-up 3-4 OLB and we saw how the 3-4 DE experiment went. The 15 pick thing matters less once you get to day 3, but on days 1 and 2 when you can move down and pick up draft capital that can land you starting caliber talent, it's bit wasteful. With that said, we have several promising position groups- Dline (FINALLY), RB, QB, WR, and to a lesser extent, LB. Time to show and prove.

I think teams miss so often on drafts because they don't draft according to fit or they don't know what fits in the system. Kyle makes it very clear to John the exact type of player he is looking for. That means they will be drafting players "too soon" because if a player fits that profile, he will help the 49ers.

Part of what make the difference between a good and a bad GM is luck. You pick the guys you like but you have to hope they stay healthy and continue to improve at the next level. All the film study in the world can't guaranty this will happen. These are both things you can't know for sure so there is at least a fair amount of luck involved.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.

-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soon that's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.

What makes you think that they don't do that? It doesn't really matter where 30 teams would take a guy if that 31st team values him extremely highly. For a guy like Hurd, for whom there is not similar player in the draft, I think you have to be aggressive and just get him.

The punter in the 4th is essentially a bet that this guy is near the level of Michael Dickson. Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is, it makes perfect sense that Mitch's value would be a little inflated and go earlier than Dickson (see: the two Iowa TE's going in the first because of Kittle's domination).

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

It's "couldnt care less".. just warning you cause there are several grammar nazis on here.

I was getting ready to send in the 'gestapo'. Just kidding. You're right but that's probably one of the most common errors we make. It's so common that it's nearly acceptable either way. Like nuclear and nucular.

grammarly.com

You're welcome.

Originally posted by dj43:

Originally posted by CatchMaster80:

Originally posted by Waterbear:

Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:

I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

It's "couldnt care less".. just warning you cause there are several grammar nazis on here.

I was getting ready to send in the 'gestapo'. Just kidding. You're right but that's probably one of the most common errors we make. It's so common that it's nearly acceptable either way. Like nuclear and nucular.

grammarly.com

You're welcome.

I have that and it corrects were to we're every damn time lol

Originally posted by All22:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.

-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soon that's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.

What makes you think that they don't do that? It doesn't really matter where 30 teams would take a guy if that 31st team values him extremely highly. For a guy like Hurd, for whom there is not similar player in the draft, I think you have to be aggressive and just get him.

The punter in the 4th is essentially a bet that this guy is near the level of Michael Dickson. Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is, it makes perfect sense that Mitch's value would be a little inflated and go earlier than Dickson (see: the two Iowa TE's going in the first because of Kittle's domination).

Excellent point. This is a "monkey see. Monkey do" league. People are copy-cats. No doubt both of your examples had an impact.

Draft value is such a subjective thing. It is a fun dog to chase but it becomes the master instead of the tool. Hurd may be a good example. If Kyle really liked the guy because of the overall skill set he brings, the next thing that has to happen is to look down the draft to see if there is another player that brings the same set...and if he does, how long can you wait?

It is more than just a needs vs BPA matter when it comes to what the "experts" call value. Every year we see players drop well below where they were slotted while others are picked much higher than their rating. It all depends on the need of individual teams as well as the fact that establishing a draft value for a player is largely subjective.

...but it does fill a nice time slot between now and August 1.