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MadDog49er 2019 NFLDraft Niners Review

  • dj43
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Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.

-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soon that's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.

What makes you think that they don't do that? It doesn't really matter where 30 teams would take a guy if that 31st team values him extremely highly. For a guy like Hurd, for whom there is not similar player in the draft, I think you have to be aggressive and just get him.

The punter in the 4th is essentially a bet that this guy is near the level of Michael Dickson. Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is, it makes perfect sense that Mitch's value would be a little inflated and go earlier than Dickson (see: the two Iowa TE's going in the first because of Kittle's domination).
Excellent point. This is a "monkey see. Monkey do" league. People are copy-cats. No doubt both of your examples had an impact.

Draft value is such a subjective thing. It is a fun dog to chase but it becomes the master instead of the tool. Hurd may be a good example. If Kyle really liked the guy because of the overall skill set he brings, the next thing that has to happen is to look down the draft to see if there is another player that brings the same set...and if he does, how long can you wait?

It is more than just a needs vs BPA matter when it comes to what the "experts" call value. Every year we see players drop well below where they were slotted while others are picked much higher than their rating. It all depends on the need of individual teams as well as the fact that establishing a draft value for a player is largely subjective.

...but it does fill a nice time slot between now and August 1.
Originally posted by CatchMaster80:
Originally posted by Joecool:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

Baalke used the right idea wrong. There was no fit for Tank in our defense. I can't see him as a stand-up 3-4 OLB and we saw how the 3-4 DE experiment went. The 15 pick thing matters less once you get to day 3, but on days 1 and 2 when you can move down and pick up draft capital that can land you starting caliber talent, it's bit wasteful. With that said, we have several promising position groups- Dline (FINALLY), RB, QB, WR, and to a lesser extent, LB. Time to show and prove.

I think teams miss so often on drafts because they don't draft according to fit or they don't know what fits in the system. Kyle makes it very clear to John the exact type of player he is looking for. That means they will be drafting players "too soon" because if a player fits that profile, he will help the 49ers.

Part of what make the difference between a good and a bad GM is luck. You pick the guys you like but you have to hope they stay healthy and continue to improve at the next level. All the film study in the world can't guaranty this will happen. These are both things you can't know for sure so there is at least a fair amount of luck involved.

I think that's where value and honestly assessing the roster comes into play. If they maneuvered around and ended up with two more picks, they would have reduced their risk of a bust or injury. Similarly, if they realize that most of their safeties probably won't survive a full season, that might motivate them to put safety as a need (it's a fit if there's a need). In both cases, there is still luck involved, but they are trying to reduce risk and reducing risk is something they have control over.
Originally posted by Waterbear:
I have that and it corrects were to we're every damn time lol

Those spell checks are a pain in the ass. It's like they are trying to read your mind. And don't let Siri catch you talking to Alexa. She'll GPS you into a lake.
[ Edited by CatchMaster80 on May 1, 2019 at 1:25 PM ]
Originally posted by SanFranFanfrmVa:
I've changed my stance on drafting players. I draft players now on fit and less on value. If the 49ers take a guy 15 to 30 picks sooner then some think he should've gone then I could care less. The Trent Baalke value/talent drafting philosophy was a complete failure. The Tank Carradine first round talent that fell to the 2nd round A+ grade didn't work. Carradine was lackluster at best. Those type of picks that Baalke was saluted for never worked.

We need Trent Baalke to do the value trade backs/up, John Lynch to get the boardroom buy-in and Mike Nolan to make the final picks as GM...with Scot McCloughan building the board.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 1, 2019 at 5:38 PM ]
Originally posted by All22:
Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is...

Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by All22:
Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is...


Punters are people too damnit lol I agree with All22 and his analysis
Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Agree 100 on this year's break down

Some of MD's picks don't fit the offense, and went undrafted. People get pissed we "overdraft' but it's ok to draft undrafted guys or guys early who went later? And a RB? When we have 4 already locked into a spot?

There's no way of knowing how far some of the guys we did pick would have fallen, but it sure seems like Shanahan/Lynch fell in love with certain players and picked them extremely early to be safe (Deebo, Hurd, Wishnowsky) rather than taking a chance that their guy would be there at their next pick. It strikes me as arrogance and feels like they predetermined who they were going to pick each round.

I don't understand picking Deebo at 36 when there are so many good WRs available that there's a good chance he could have been had in the 50s or even at 67.
No way Deebo lasted till that late IMO. He went wherever was projected to go

No GTD that the Pats wouldn't have traded up for Mitch, or that he falls to round 5. Same for Hurd I'm sure one team eyed Hurd after our pick.
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
No way Deebo lasted till that late IMO. He went wherever was projected to go

No GTD that the Pats wouldn't have traded up for Mitch, or that he falls to round 5. Same for Hurd I'm sure one team eyed Hurd after our pick.

No doubt about it.

That being said I would've taken the risk on Mitch and drafted Chauncey Gardner. If he goes you take Bailey with the newly acquired 5th from Denver. Not sure Mitch Justin Skule and Tim Harris trump Chauncey and Bailey.
Originally posted by nahumse:
I agree with you MD the cards had a hell of a draft. I hope I'm wrong.

The league should take note. They are going to be a scary team very soon. Just too many weapons to cover.
Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Thanks for the kind comments. Overdrafted is somewhat subjective because the "overdrafting" really begins two selections after your pick. Unless the team directly after you was salivating at the prospect of having your pick, you technically have overdrafted (which happens in 99.9% of all cases once you go past the first round). Is a player taken 30 picks after your selection overdrafting? I will let others interpret what qualifies for that term. I think if you have a player stamped as a first round pick and they fall to the third round, I see that as value, even if they get selected a round later. That was my case with Butler. I had Williams with a third round grade (he was my RB1 from this class), so to select him in the 5th, even though he went in the 6th, is good value. No shame in having your 6th rounder go undrafted. From the back end of the draft, teams select all kinds of developmental guys, special teamers, guys that fit their unique scheme. There are a lot of guys selected by their teams that would have gone undrafted if not picked by that one team.

There have been players that I picked in my draft that were selected one pick after the Niners' selection, but that simply does not happen very often.


I don't think that way of thinking is useful for anything but comparing drafts across teams. And to do that you have to minimize all the idiosyncrasies of the team (depth chart, scheme fit, how he complements the rest of the roster etc)

Selecting a 3rd round guy in the 5th who does not fit your scheme and who will be at best 4th string is horrible value. In fact, it's a total wasted pick.

Picking a 5th round guy in the 3rd who your coach absolutely salivates over how he's a chess piece that's going to wreck other team's game plans is ultimate value.

That is if he is a 4th string. If he is a second stringer next year because they release McKinnon and Coleman, then a stud back in the 5th is great value. Not every pick is going to player right away especially if you are a Day Three selection.

As stated previously, I don't see how Williams isn't a fit in our scheme. He runs, catches, blocks. Is there some other part of the game that I am missing?

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.

-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soon that's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.

Couple notes: I think we needed both FS and SS replacements. Tartt has been injured in back to back years. Hooker can play in multiple positions, including the slot. Super versatile chess piece on defense.

As for Brown's productivity from the outside, he was moved into that role after Metcalf was injured and actually had better stats (if you look at the back end of the schedule). The versatility is attractive to me.
Originally posted by Joecool:
Man, looking back at MD's previous drafts and majority of the teams missing on majority of the players, I think the top requirement in the formula of drafting should be the desire of the player. Yes, talent is always needed to win championships but I think teams can get more hits than misses in the draft if they value desire first.

Players who love the game make up a HUGE part of my final draft grade. Captains also help in the equation. Are guys hungry to be great?
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Thanks for the kind comments. Overdrafted is somewhat subjective because the "overdrafting" really begins two selections after your pick. Unless the team directly after you was salivating at the prospect of having your pick, you technically have overdrafted (which happens in 99.9% of all cases once you go past the first round). Is a player taken 30 picks after your selection overdrafting? I will let others interpret what qualifies for that term. I think if you have a player stamped as a first round pick and they fall to the third round, I see that as value, even if they get selected a round later. That was my case with Butler. I had Williams with a third round grade (he was my RB1 from this class), so to select him in the 5th, even though he went in the 6th, is good value. No shame in having your 6th rounder go undrafted. From the back end of the draft, teams select all kinds of developmental guys, special teamers, guys that fit their unique scheme. There are a lot of guys selected by their teams that would have gone undrafted if not picked by that one team.

There have been players that I picked in my draft that were selected one pick after the Niners' selection, but that simply does not happen very often.


I don't think that way of thinking is useful for anything but comparing drafts across teams. And to do that you have to minimize all the idiosyncrasies of the team (depth chart, scheme fit, how he complements the rest of the roster etc)

Selecting a 3rd round guy in the 5th who does not fit your scheme and who will be at best 4th string is horrible value. In fact, it's a total wasted pick.

Picking a 5th round guy in the 3rd who your coach absolutely salivates over how he's a chess piece that's going to wreck other team's game plans is ultimate value.

That is if he is a 4th string. If he is a second stringer next year because they release McKinnon and Coleman, then a stud back in the 5th is great value. Not every pick is going to player right away especially if you are a Day Three selection.

As stated previously, I don't see how Williams isn't a fit in our scheme. He runs, catches, blocks. Is there some other part of the game that I am missing?
Who would the Niners cut THIS year that would even get Williams a roster spot? I cant see them releasing McKinnon, Coleman, Breida, or Mostert. Then consider that Hurd can be their short yardage back at his size. I agree that Williams would have been a terrible pick given the makeup of the Niners roster.
I just think Kyle thinks he knows best and gambles on 3rd round picks. CJ Beathard and Hurd definately were stretches. If he knew he wanted Hurd, why not trade down and pick up a low 3rd 4th and a7th and Hurd would still have been available.

The OL pick was baffling. 40 starts, but I felt there was way more OL that could have been had. When in doubt draft OL from Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and you will be ok.

I for one LOVED the punter pick. He is guaranteed to make the roster, the pay is very similar, and lots of teams needed specialists. The pats traded up to get the punter from stanford in round 5, so with the new four year contracts, I see more punters and kickers going in rounds 4 and 5 if it is a position of need. See Seattle last year
We should of addressed linebacker we have kwon and warner and nothing else behind them.
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