Originally posted by All22:Excellent point. This is a "monkey see. Monkey do" league. People are copy-cats. No doubt both of your examples had an impact.
Originally posted by NYniner85:
Thanks for the write up....agree and disagree with a little of it which is all good.
-I wanted AJ more than Deebo BUT I wonder if the fact that Deebo seems to have a little more success outside vs what AJB had kinda played a part?
-Hurd will be the big slot guy, I get the pick I just don't get it at the top of the 3rd...I think our FO needs to start looking around at other teams and have an idea if they think someone else will draft a prospect. Seems like they just draft a dude they really want even though it's like 30+ picks too soonthat's a problem...they could have very easily come away with Layne and Hurd IMO.
-Punter in the 4th is just unforgivable...I can't back that up and I don't care if the Pats moved up in the 5th to get one, they hade like 12 picks and are defending SB champs.
-in your mock you have us taking Amani Hooker which IMHO doesn't make sense? Dude is a SS and we need a FS. Coney is a 2 down thumper, they need speed at LBer in this system. Cashman made more sense than Dre. I agree with that.
What makes you think that they don't do that? It doesn't really matter where 30 teams would take a guy if that 31st team values him extremely highly. For a guy like Hurd, for whom there is not similar player in the draft, I think you have to be aggressive and just get him.
The punter in the 4th is essentially a bet that this guy is near the level of Michael Dickson. Given how insanely valuable a guy like that is, it makes perfect sense that Mitch's value would be a little inflated and go earlier than Dickson (see: the two Iowa TE's going in the first because of Kittle's domination).
Draft value is such a subjective thing. It is a fun dog to chase but it becomes the master instead of the tool. Hurd may be a good example. If Kyle really liked the guy because of the overall skill set he brings, the next thing that has to happen is to look down the draft to see if there is another player that brings the same set...and if he does, how long can you wait?
It is more than just a needs vs BPA matter when it comes to what the "experts" call value. Every year we see players drop well below where they were slotted while others are picked much higher than their rating. It all depends on the need of individual teams as well as the fact that establishing a draft value for a player is largely subjective.
...but it does fill a nice time slot between now and August 1.
