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MadDog49er 2019 NFLDraft Niners Review

  • pdc20
  • Member
  • Posts: 225
As always MadDog thanks for all your work on the draft coverage, you´re the best.
[ Edited by pdc20 on Apr 30, 2019 at 7:17 AM ]
Great stuff as always MadDog!
Agree 100 on this year's break down
Originally posted by Giedi:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Spot on. C+ was my grade as well.

The two most important areas that make both our systems run, interior pass protection and single-high free safety were never addressed in either free agency or the draft.

That's remarkable actually.

But a lot of other key pieces were certainly added overall.

I thought I saw some promising prospects they signed in the undrafted free agency period. We shall see.

Kyle was able to spot undrafteds in Breida and Bourne, hoping he has the same magic for our interior line and Free and Strong Safety areas.

We needed high-end staters for those two critical spots, not UDFA hopefuls. Guys like Risner (T/G) or in FA, Thomas or Amos.

I liked a lot of other moves a lot though. They're going to have to address those next year now and probably add, the coverage unit in general to that mix as well.

But who knows...sometimes the stars do align.
Thanks MadDog! Regardless of whether I agree with your opinions or not, your write ups are great and always a good read.

I do have a question about your draft and value...

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by MrOrange:
I don't necessarily have a problem with the guys we got, just where we got them. I mean, I get it....every team, evaluates and rates players differently (based on the scheme they run and need) than other teams, but you have to be aware of a players' value to other teams....that way you're not overdrafting players. I'm sure they do that, but it just doesn't appear that way.....The consensus is that we reached on almost every player....whether it was a little or a lot. That disappoints me more than anything else.

Even if this turns out to be an awesome draft in hindsight...it doesn't change the fact that we overdrafted players AT THE TIME and possibly could have gotten better value.

Agreed. Have to draft with value in mind.

Considering you agreed with the quote above, would you say you overdrafted the following players:

3. Hakeem Butler (drafted in the 4th)
5. Treyveon Williams (drafted in the 6th)
6. Tommy Sweeney (drafted in the 7th)
6. Te'von Coney (undrafted)
6. Mitch Hyatt (undrafted)

I understand these players were BPA on your board at the time of selection but as you said, you "have to draft with value in mind." Since these players ended up going at least a full round later than when you selected them, would you say these picks were of poor value?
Originally posted by candlestick49er:
Thanks MadDog! Regardless of whether I agree with your opinions or not, your write ups are great and always a good read.

I do have a question about your draft and value...

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by MrOrange:
I don't necessarily have a problem with the guys we got, just where we got them. I mean, I get it....every team, evaluates and rates players differently (based on the scheme they run and need) than other teams, but you have to be aware of a players' value to other teams....that way you're not overdrafting players. I'm sure they do that, but it just doesn't appear that way.....The consensus is that we reached on almost every player....whether it was a little or a lot. That disappoints me more than anything else.

Even if this turns out to be an awesome draft in hindsight...it doesn't change the fact that we overdrafted players AT THE TIME and possibly could have gotten better value.

Agreed. Have to draft with value in mind.

Considering you agreed with the quote above, would you say you overdrafted the following players:

3. Hakeem Butler (drafted in the 4th)
5. Treyveon Williams (drafted in the 6th)
6. Tommy Sweeney (drafted in the 7th)
6. Te'von Coney (undrafted)
6. Mitch Hyatt (undrafted)

I understand these players were BPA on your board at the time of selection but as you said, you "have to draft with value in mind." Since these players ended up going at least a full round later than when you selected them, would you say these picks were of poor value?

Thanks for the kind comments. Overdrafted is somewhat subjective because the "overdrafting" really begins two selections after your pick. Unless the team directly after you was salivating at the prospect of having your pick, you technically have overdrafted (which happens in 99.9% of all cases once you go past the first round). Is a player taken 30 picks after your selection overdrafting? I will let others interpret what qualifies for that term. I think if you have a player stamped as a first round pick and they fall to the third round, I see that as value, even if they get selected a round later. That was my case with Butler. I had Williams with a third round grade (he was my RB1 from this class), so to select him in the 5th, even though he went in the 6th, is good value. No shame in having your 6th rounder go undrafted. From the back end of the draft, teams select all kinds of developmental guys, special teamers, guys that fit their unique scheme. There are a lot of guys selected by their teams that would have gone undrafted if not picked by that one team.

There have been players that I picked in my draft that were selected one pick after the Niners' selection, but that simply does not happen very often.
Originally posted by pdc20:
As always MadDog thanks for all your work on the draft coverage, you´re the best.

thanks
Originally posted by TheXFactor:
Great stuff as always MadDog!

thanks
I agree with you MD the cards had a hell of a draft. I hope I'm wrong.
Originally posted by nahumse:
I agree with you MD the cards had a hell of a draft. I hope I'm wrong.

Its the cardinals, led by Steve Keim. Don't worry you're wrong.
[ Edited by OneMoreRing on Apr 30, 2019 at 10:13 PM ]

  • All22
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,064
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Thanks for the kind comments. Overdrafted is somewhat subjective because the "overdrafting" really begins two selections after your pick. Unless the team directly after you was salivating at the prospect of having your pick, you technically have overdrafted (which happens in 99.9% of all cases once you go past the first round). Is a player taken 30 picks after your selection overdrafting? I will let others interpret what qualifies for that term. I think if you have a player stamped as a first round pick and they fall to the third round, I see that as value, even if they get selected a round later. That was my case with Butler. I had Williams with a third round grade (he was my RB1 from this class), so to select him in the 5th, even though he went in the 6th, is good value. No shame in having your 6th rounder go undrafted. From the back end of the draft, teams select all kinds of developmental guys, special teamers, guys that fit their unique scheme. There are a lot of guys selected by their teams that would have gone undrafted if not picked by that one team.

There have been players that I picked in my draft that were selected one pick after the Niners' selection, but that simply does not happen very often.


I don't think that way of thinking is useful for anything but comparing drafts across teams. And to do that you have to minimize all the idiosyncrasies of the team (depth chart, scheme fit, how he complements the rest of the roster etc)

Selecting a 3rd round guy in the 5th who does not fit your scheme and who will be at best 4th string is horrible value. In fact, it's a total wasted pick.

Picking a 5th round guy in the 3rd who your coach absolutely salivates over how he's a chess piece that's going to wreck other team's game plans is ultimate value.
[ Edited by All22 on May 1, 2019 at 1:24 AM ]
Originally posted by MrOrange:
Even if this turns out to be an awesome draft in hindsight...it doesn't change the fact that we overdrafted players AT THE TIME and possibly could have gotten better value.

if the draft turns out to be awesome we got good value, the whole point of the draft is to get good players.
With all respect, I disagree MD, why a RB when we have 4 quality backs. And guys who would have been overdrafted, including 2 who went undrafted. Plus I gave it a B- for the draft, Hurd will be a swiss army knife for Shanahan.
Originally posted by lamontb:
Agree 100 on this year's break down

Some of MD's picks don't fit the offense, and went undrafted. People get pissed we "overdraft' but it's ok to draft undrafted guys or guys early who went later? And a RB? When we have 4 already locked into a spot?
Originally posted by AB81Rules:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Agree 100 on this year's break down

Some of MD's picks don't fit the offense, and went undrafted. People get pissed we "overdraft' but it's ok to draft undrafted guys or guys early who went later? And a RB? When we have 4 already locked into a spot?

There's no way of knowing how far some of the guys we did pick would have fallen, but it sure seems like Shanahan/Lynch fell in love with certain players and picked them extremely early to be safe (Deebo, Hurd, Wishnowsky) rather than taking a chance that their guy would be there at their next pick. It strikes me as arrogance and feels like they predetermined who they were going to pick each round.

I don't understand picking Deebo at 36 when there are so many good WRs available that there's a good chance he could have been had in the 50s or even at 67.
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