Originally posted by blizzuntz:
of course it is $$$ being thrown away. Smith is a product of Harbaugh. Every QB that Harbaugh has ever coached has lit it up. Harbaugh can groom another draft pick or Tolzien (if he isnt already 2nd QB material) can step in. all of which would be a fraction ( one tenth) of Smiths salary. That money can go to keeping our own players that we know are good and not worry about gambling on a 4th round pick.
$ 8.5 million is enough to pay for ALL of our next years rookie salaries. the risks/benefits of not releasing Smith before the roster bonus are obvious. keeping him to try to lure in a 4th draft pick would be a huge bone head mistake and virtually throwing away at least the million dollar roster bonus due in spring.
Who says he's only going for a 4th round pick? You're talking about a guy who if he had started one more game, would have ended up 3rd in the NFL in QB rating. Smith has value and a team will make a deal to acquire him in the offseason. If I'm Baalke, I'm starting the discussion at a 1st round pick and working my way down, playing the various teams against each other and seeing who gets the most desperate and offers the best deal. Realistically if you can get a late 2nd or early 3rd for Smith, that is a fantastic haul and will allow this team to add one more impact player.
As far as the cap goes, the 49ers will be able to have enough money to keep Smith, re-sign Goldson, add a lower tier free agent or two and sign their draft picks, that is the bottomline, regardless of what sematics you utilize, Smith could stay on this roster, be a capable backup for Kaepernick and this team would still be fine as Baalke isn't going to be dishing out big dough to free agents as it is anyways.
I highly doubt the 49ers release him because they don't want him winding up in Arizona. If they can send him to Cleveland, Oakland or Kansas City, then so much the better. Its considered to be more likely that they trade him than they release him. 49ers will have basically a month before the NFL year starts again to explore a trade for Alex. They'll have literally 2 MONTHS to explore trades before they would owe him the full amount for 2013, they can cut him anytime before April 1st and only owe a million dollars. If they can turn that million into a 2nd or 3rd round pick, it'll be worth it.
And as I mentioned, with the dearth of quality quarterbacks this year, there's no better time for an Alex trade, I mean, this literally is the perfect year for the 49ers to get back maximum value for him. Mark my words, somebody out there will get desperate and they will overpay to secure a quality starting quarterback for their team.
The San Francisco 49ers are expected to trade Alex Smith before April 1.
Smith's $7.5 million salary for the 2013 season becomes fully guaranteed on that date.
The 49ers will try to trade Smith before March 14, which is when the team would owe him nothing.
Via Adam Schefter/ESPN
Its inconceivable for a competent GM to have a valuable asset that is in demand, and to simply give them up for nothing.
"It also means Smith could be cut, but more likely, will be pushed in a trade. And it's actually a good time to trade him.
We can call Alex Smith just another Jim Harbaugh creation, but he might be a valuable one, because at the time he was benched he was playing the best football of his life. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 104.8 which, had it been sustained, would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Passer rating doesn't paint nearly a complete picture (ask the new breed of read-zone utilized by QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III), but Smith's 2012 QBR ranked seventh and is the best of his career by a mile. He was making better decisions than he ever has, throwing TD passes at a higher rate than he ever has, and driving the ball down the field more often and successfully than he ever has. He helped guide the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season (exactly where CK has them this season) and was mere bad fumble luck from starting a Super Bowl.
The 49ers didn't just try out CK because of all the things noted above, they also did it because they knew the guy who could step back in was playing well enough to take them far himself.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 28, 2013 at 12:25 AM ]