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Possible landing spot for Alex Smith

Originally posted by SkyGod:
Originally posted by theduke85:
Alex Smith does not have a ton of trade value. Yes, he had a great season, yes, he has been a pretty solid quarterback from two years now, but more important than any of that is the fact that the 49ers do not have much leverage. They're not going to hang to him and pay their backup quarterback $7M next year. It's just not going to happen. So, why would a team give up a lot in a trade when they could just wait for him to get cut!?

Yes, there's incentive for a team to acquire Smith and retain his current contract. If he gets cut, I suspect he'll get more guaranteed money that he got last offseason. However, it's not valuable enough that teams are going to give up a high draft pick for him. I think we're looking at something like a 4th round pick for compensation. That's better than nothing, but... I don't think there's any chance we sniff something as valuable as a 1st or a 2nd round pick.


A starting NFL QB who is 28 just lead his team to the conference final was playing very well before being injured who has been coached up by Jim Harbaugh is in his prime and has a good contract will be bring a hell of a lot more than a 4th round pick in a trade.

The teams that would improve by adding Smith have GM's that are under the gun to improve their teams or lose their jobs and that's why your wrong Alex does have trade value and it will be higher than a 4th rounder lol.

Trolls are obvious the posters who claim Alex will only bring a 3rd or 4th round pick in return in a trade are Alex bashers trolling.

LOL... Alex is going to not be on the team regardless. Why would a team war to trade for him?

His contract is attractive for how he played with the best offensive line and best rushing attack in the NFL. But everyone knows the contract of a draft pick is much more attractive both short term as long term.

I'm surprised that you haven't said we could get 2 1st round picks for him.
Originally posted by SkyGod:
Originally posted by Ninerjohn:
LOL. Really? I dont think I am a troll at all in any thread but think a 3rd rd pick is as high as the Niners will get for Smith. I would say that anyone who thinks the Niners will get a first rd pick is dillusional and anyone who thinks the Niners will get a 2nd is very optimistic.

You really need to quit trolling or embarrassing yourself whatever your deal is because you clearly know nothing about what the best QB on the market is worth in a trade.

You need to learn what 'troll' means. Stating an opinion about what Smith will attract in a trade is not trolling.

Arbitrarily calling someone a troll especially when it is unwarranted is a warnable offense.
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
LOL... Alex is going to not be on the team regardless. Why would a team war to trade for him?

His contract is attractive for how he played with the best offensive line and best rushing attack in the NFL. But everyone knows the contract of a draft pick is much more attractive both short term as long term.

I'm surprised that you haven't said we could get 2 1st round picks for him.

A. The 49ers don't HAVE to trade or release Alex.

B. The QB's on the free agent market are s**t.

C. The QB's in the draft are underwhelming



The 49ers have the supply, other teams have the demand. Call Alex whatever you want but he's a quality veteran quarterback with experience, with so many new GM's, they won't want to start a project and risk getting canned in a year or two, they'll want someone established and Alex will gain value, even if teams think that he's going to get cut, by trading for him, you determine his salary and you get him on your team without worrying about competition from other teams. He's the ideal stop-gap starter, a guy to play a couple seasons while your rookie develops. I'd say he's got 3rd round value right now, especially if the 49ers play up the angle of not having to cut him and realistically they don't, they can free up about 12-13 million in cap space, even with Alex still on the roster.

Urgency for QB's will only increase from here until the draft, I don't see the 49ers getting a 1st rounder for Alex, that sure as hell won't happen but I see his trading value having a ceiling of a late 2nd rounder and a basement of an early 4th round pick.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 27, 2013 at 9:58 PM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
LOL... Alex is going to not be on the team regardless. Why would a team war to trade for him?

His contract is attractive for how he played with the best offensive line and best rushing attack in the NFL. But everyone knows the contract of a draft pick is much more attractive both short term as long term.

I'm surprised that you haven't said we could get 2 1st round picks for him.

A. The 49ers don't HAVE to trade or release Alex.

B. The QB's on the free agent market are s**t.

C. The QB's in the draft are underwhelming



The 49ers have the supply, other teams have the demand. Call Alex whatever you want but he's a quality veteran quarterback with experience, with so many new GM's, they won't want to start a project and risk getting canned in a year or two, they'll want someone established and Alex will gain value, even if teams think that he's going to get cut, by trading for him, you determine his salary and you get him on your team without worrying about competition from other teams. He's the ideal stop-gap starter, a guy to play a couple seasons while your rookie develops. I'd say he's got 3rd round value right now, especially if the 49ers play up the angle of not having to cut him and realistically they don't, they can free up about 12-13 million in cap space, even with Alex still on the roster.

Urgency for QB's will only increase from here until the draft, I don't see the 49ers getting a 1st rounder for Alex, that sure as hell won't happen but I see his trading value having a ceiling of a late 2nd rounder and a basement of an early 4th round pick.

So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,139
Quote:
ATLANTA -- In a move that figures to have significant ramifications for the incumbent starters from both teams, the Atlanta Falcons on Wednesday agreed in principle to trade three-year veteran quarterback Matt Schaub to the Houston Texans.

When the trade is completed, Atlanta and Houston will flip-flop first-round picks in April's draft, and Atlanta will receive Houston's second-round picks in 2007 and 2008. The deal will be announced Thursday. Houston has the No. 8 pick in the first round of the draft, while Atlanta is slotted 10th.

Source

Quote:

PHILADELPHIA -- Kevin Kolb is a No. 1 quarterback again.

The Philadelphia Eagles have traded Kolb to the Arizona Cardinals for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick in 2012.

Source

When teams are desperate for an answer at QB, they will be willing to give up a lot to snag their guy.
Originally posted by GEEK:
Quote:
ATLANTA -- In a move that figures to have significant ramifications for the incumbent starters from both teams, the Atlanta Falcons on Wednesday agreed in principle to trade three-year veteran quarterback Matt Schaub to the Houston Texans.

When the trade is completed, Atlanta and Houston will flip-flop first-round picks in April's draft, and Atlanta will receive Houston's second-round picks in 2007 and 2008. The deal will be announced Thursday. Houston has the No. 8 pick in the first round of the draft, while Atlanta is slotted 10th.

Source

Quote:

PHILADELPHIA -- Kevin Kolb is a No. 1 quarterback again.

The Philadelphia Eagles have traded Kolb to the Arizona Cardinals for cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick in 2012.

Source

When teams are desperate for an answer at QB, they will be willing to give up a lot to snag their guy.

it was rumored that Seattle offered last years 1st and 3rd for Kolb.

With those picks the got Irvin and Wilson
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!

I don't consider it money being "thrown away", I consider it a good investment in a backup QB in case Kaepernick gets injured. The more teams think the 49ers will keep Alex, the more they will be willing to part with. Ultimately, somebody will get desperate and they will pull the trigger for him. If a team was willing to trade a 2nd round pick and a starting CB coming off a Pro-Bowl for Kevin Kolb, I have absolutely no trouble seeing the 49ers get a late 2nd/early 3rd for Alex.
  • GEEK
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 17,139
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!

I don't consider it money being "thrown away", I consider it a good investment in a backup QB in case Kaepernick gets injured. The more teams think the 49ers will keep Alex, the more they will be willing to part with. Ultimately, somebody will get desperate and they will pull the trigger for him. If a team was willing to trade a 2nd round pick and a starting CB coming off a Pro-Bowl for Kevin Kolb, I have absolutely no trouble seeing the 49ers get a late 2nd/early 3rd for Alex.

Very true. Also, Kaepernick has a very low salary. When you do an average at the position, we are spending about 11M in 2013 at the QB position, less than 10% of the salary cap.

According to Sportrac, P.Manning, Vick, Palmer, Rothlisberger, E. Manning, Rivers, and Palmer will all make more than 11M in 2013.

But realistically speaking, you don't pay 8M for a backup.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!

I don't consider it money being "thrown away", I consider it a good investment in a backup QB in case Kaepernick gets injured. The more teams think the 49ers will keep Alex, the more they will be willing to part with. Ultimately, somebody will get desperate and they will pull the trigger for him. If a team was willing to trade a 2nd round pick and a starting CB coming off a Pro-Bowl for Kevin Kolb, I have absolutely no trouble seeing the 49ers get a late 2nd/early 3rd for Alex.

of course it is $$$ being thrown away. Smith is a product of Harbaugh. Every QB that Harbaugh has ever coached has lit it up. Harbaugh can groom another draft pick or Tolzien (if he isnt already 2nd QB material) can step in. all of which would be a fraction ( one tenth) of Smiths salary. That money can go to keeping our own players that we know are good and not worry about gambling on a 4th round pick.

$ 8.5 million is enough to pay for ALL of our next years rookie salaries. the risks/benefits of not releasing Smith before the roster bonus are obvious. keeping him to try to lure in a 4th draft pick would be a huge bone head mistake and virtually throwing away at least the million dollar roster bonus due in spring.
Originally posted by GEEK:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!

I don't consider it money being "thrown away", I consider it a good investment in a backup QB in case Kaepernick gets injured. The more teams think the 49ers will keep Alex, the more they will be willing to part with. Ultimately, somebody will get desperate and they will pull the trigger for him. If a team was willing to trade a 2nd round pick and a starting CB coming off a Pro-Bowl for Kevin Kolb, I have absolutely no trouble seeing the 49ers get a late 2nd/early 3rd for Alex.

Very true. Also, Kaepernick has a very low salary. When you do an average at the position, we are spending about 11M in 2013 at the QB position, less than 10% of the salary cap.

According to Sportrac, P.Manning, Vick, Palmer, Rothlisberger, E. Manning, Rivers, and Palmer will all make more than 11M in 2013.

But realistically speaking, you don't pay 8M for a backup.

Of course you dont pay a back up this much $$$.

Saving $$$ on Kaep as a starter doesnt mean you just waste away $$ on the back up bc it "averages" out.

Instead you invest that money on other positions. whether is be retaining players or FA.
[ Edited by blizzuntz on Jan 27, 2013 at 11:37 PM ]
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
of course it is $$$ being thrown away. Smith is a product of Harbaugh. Every QB that Harbaugh has ever coached has lit it up. Harbaugh can groom another draft pick or Tolzien (if he isnt already 2nd QB material) can step in. all of which would be a fraction ( one tenth) of Smiths salary. That money can go to keeping our own players that we know are good and not worry about gambling on a 4th round pick.

$ 8.5 million is enough to pay for ALL of our next years rookie salaries. the risks/benefits of not releasing Smith before the roster bonus are obvious. keeping him to try to lure in a 4th draft pick would be a huge bone head mistake and virtually throwing away at least the million dollar roster bonus due in spring.

Who says he's only going for a 4th round pick? You're talking about a guy who if he had started one more game, would have ended up 3rd in the NFL in QB rating. Smith has value and a team will make a deal to acquire him in the offseason. If I'm Baalke, I'm starting the discussion at a 1st round pick and working my way down, playing the various teams against each other and seeing who gets the most desperate and offers the best deal. Realistically if you can get a late 2nd or early 3rd for Smith, that is a fantastic haul and will allow this team to add one more impact player.

As far as the cap goes, the 49ers will be able to have enough money to keep Smith, re-sign Goldson, add a lower tier free agent or two and sign their draft picks, that is the bottomline, regardless of what sematics you utilize, Smith could stay on this roster, be a capable backup for Kaepernick and this team would still be fine as Baalke isn't going to be dishing out big dough to free agents as it is anyways.

I highly doubt the 49ers release him because they don't want him winding up in Arizona. If they can send him to Cleveland, Oakland or Kansas City, then so much the better. Its considered to be more likely that they trade him than they release him. 49ers will have basically a month before the NFL year starts again to explore a trade for Alex. They'll have literally 2 MONTHS to explore trades before they would owe him the full amount for 2013, they can cut him anytime before April 1st and only owe a million dollars. If they can turn that million into a 2nd or 3rd round pick, it'll be worth it.


And as I mentioned, with the dearth of quality quarterbacks this year, there's no better time for an Alex trade, I mean, this literally is the perfect year for the 49ers to get back maximum value for him. Mark my words, somebody out there will get desperate and they will overpay to secure a quality starting quarterback for their team.



The San Francisco 49ers are expected to trade Alex Smith before April 1.

Smith's $7.5 million salary for the 2013 season becomes fully guaranteed on that date.

The 49ers will try to trade Smith before March 14, which is when the team would owe him nothing.

Via Adam Schefter/ESPN

Its inconceivable for a competent GM to have a valuable asset that is in demand, and to simply give them up for nothing.

"It also means Smith could be cut, but more likely, will be pushed in a trade. And it's actually a good time to trade him.

We can call Alex Smith just another Jim Harbaugh creation, but he might be a valuable one, because at the time he was benched he was playing the best football of his life. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 104.8 which, had it been sustained, would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Passer rating doesn't paint nearly a complete picture (ask the new breed of read-zone utilized by QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III), but Smith's 2012 QBR ranked seventh and is the best of his career by a mile. He was making better decisions than he ever has, throwing TD passes at a higher rate than he ever has, and driving the ball down the field more often and successfully than he ever has. He helped guide the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season (exactly where CK has them this season) and was mere bad fumble luck from starting a Super Bowl.

The 49ers didn't just try out CK because of all the things noted above, they also did it because they knew the guy who could step back in was playing well enough to take them far himself.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8859495/five-trade-fits-san-francisco-49ers-alex-smith-nfl
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 28, 2013 at 12:25 AM ]
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
LOL... Alex is going to not be on the team regardless. Why would a team war to trade for him?

His contract is attractive for how he played with the best offensive line and best rushing attack in the NFL. But everyone knows the contract of a draft pick is much more attractive both short term as long term.

I'm surprised that you haven't said we could get 2 1st round picks for him.

A. The 49ers don't HAVE to trade or release Alex.

B. The QB's on the free agent market are s**t.

C. The QB's in the draft are underwhelming



The 49ers have the supply, other teams have the demand. Call Alex whatever you want but he's a quality veteran quarterback with experience, with so many new GM's, they won't want to start a project and risk getting canned in a year or two, they'll want someone established and Alex will gain value, even if teams think that he's going to get cut, by trading for him, you determine his salary and you get him on your team without worrying about competition from other teams. He's the ideal stop-gap starter, a guy to play a couple seasons while your rookie develops. I'd say he's got 3rd round value right now, especially if the 49ers play up the angle of not having to cut him and realistically they don't, they can free up about 12-13 million in cap space, even with Alex still on the roster.

Urgency for QB's will only increase from here until the draft, I don't see the 49ers getting a 1st rounder for Alex, that sure as hell won't happen but I see his trading value having a ceiling of a late 2nd rounder and a basement of an early 4th round pick.

So you are saying the Niners should risk getting stuck with an $8 million back up???? Cmon, risk throwing away $8million for maybe a 4th round pick? think about that for a second. We should throw away $8 million for the chance to draft a 4th round talent, the draft is a gamble starting with the 1st round!!!!!


stuck with a $8 million dllar backup....another way of looking at is they have under $10 million invested in the qb position, very reasonable for a super bowl caliber team===but i still think they parts way with smith, however if baalke cant get his price, who knows
Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
I don't agree at all, Smith is the best available QB this offseason, draft or FA.

This. If a GM really wants a QB, they're not simply going to throw their hands up and say "well, there's nobody out there." If they do, they'll likely be looking for a new job in a year or two. They'll do what it takes to get someone of quality in there and this year is like a perfect storm in terms of the demand that will be there for a quarterback like Alex. You're not talking about one or two teams vying for him, you're talking about five, six or seven teams vying for him and with that sort of competition, somebody will make a pretty off-the-wall offer that Baalke will be all over like a fat kid on a cupcake.

Will it be a first rounder? Nope. But a late 2nd round pick is a possibility, an early 3rd rounder, or a combination of picks, maybe a 4th rounder this year and a 3rd rounder next year...etc.


Originally posted by hofer36:
stuck with a $8 million dllar backup....another way of looking at is they have under $10 million invested in the qb position, very reasonable for a super bowl caliber team===but i still think they parts way with smith, however if baalke cant get his price, who knows

He'll get traded one way or another, there's literally no downside to trading him and they'll have 2 months to do it before they have to be on the hook for the $7.5 million portion.


So essentially the question is, do you dump a valuable commodity for zip, zero, nada......or do you hold on to him, taking the $1 million hit and get the best possible deal from a desperate team, giving you a 2nd or 3rd round choice to select another cornerback, wide receiver, or upgrade at some other position. To me its simply a no-brainer, especially this year, there's no Andrew Luck or RG3, Alex is about as good as it gets.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 28, 2013 at 12:35 AM ]
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
of course it is $$$ being thrown away. Smith is a product of Harbaugh. Every QB that Harbaugh has ever coached has lit it up. Harbaugh can groom another draft pick or Tolzien (if he isnt already 2nd QB material) can step in. all of which would be a fraction ( one tenth) of Smiths salary. That money can go to keeping our own players that we know are good and not worry about gambling on a 4th round pick.

$ 8.5 million is enough to pay for ALL of our next years rookie salaries. the risks/benefits of not releasing Smith before the roster bonus are obvious. keeping him to try to lure in a 4th draft pick would be a huge bone head mistake and virtually throwing away at least the million dollar roster bonus due in spring.

Who says he's only going for a 4th round pick? You're talking about a guy who if he had started one more game, would have ended up 3rd in the NFL in QB rating. Smith has value and a team will make a deal to acquire him in the offseason. If I'm Baalke, I'm starting the discussion at a 1st round pick and working my way down, playing the various teams against each other and seeing who gets the most desperate and offers the best deal. Realistically if you can get a late 2nd or early 3rd for Smith, that is a fantastic haul and will allow this team to add one more impact player.

As far as the cap goes, the 49ers will be able to have enough money to keep Smith, re-sign Goldson, add a lower tier free agent or two and sign their draft picks, that is the bottomline, regardless of what sematics you utilize, Smith could stay on this roster, be a capable backup for Kaepernick and this team would still be fine as Baalke isn't going to be dishing out big dough to free agents as it is anyways.

I highly doubt the 49ers release him because they don't want him winding up in Arizona. If they can send him to Cleveland, Oakland or Kansas City, then so much the better. Its considered to be more likely that they trade him than they release him. 49ers will have basically a month before the NFL year starts again to explore a trade for Alex. They'll have literally 2 MONTHS to explore trades before they would owe him the full amount for 2013, they can cut him anytime before April 1st and only owe a million dollars. If they can turn that million into a 2nd or 3rd round pick, it'll be worth it.


And as I mentioned, with the dearth of quality quarterbacks this year, there's no better time for an Alex trade, I mean, this literally is the perfect year for the 49ers to get back maximum value for him. Mark my words, somebody out there will get desperate and they will overpay to secure a quality starting quarterback for their team.



The San Francisco 49ers are expected to trade Alex Smith before April 1.

Smith's $7.5 million salary for the 2013 season becomes fully guaranteed on that date.

The 49ers will try to trade Smith before March 14, which is when the team would owe him nothing.

Via Adam Schefter/ESPN

Its inconceivable for a competent GM to have a valuable asset that is in demand, and to simply give them up for nothing.

"It also means Smith could be cut, but more likely, will be pushed in a trade. And it's actually a good time to trade him.

We can call Alex Smith just another Jim Harbaugh creation, but he might be a valuable one, because at the time he was benched he was playing the best football of his life. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 104.8 which, had it been sustained, would rank behind only Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning. Passer rating doesn't paint nearly a complete picture (ask the new breed of read-zone utilized by QBs like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III), but Smith's 2012 QBR ranked seventh and is the best of his career by a mile. He was making better decisions than he ever has, throwing TD passes at a higher rate than he ever has, and driving the ball down the field more often and successfully than he ever has. He helped guide the Niners to the NFC Championship Game last season (exactly where CK has them this season) and was mere bad fumble luck from starting a Super Bowl.

The 49ers didn't just try out CK because of all the things noted above, they also did it because they knew the guy who could step back in was playing well enough to take them far himself.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8859495/five-trade-fits-san-francisco-49ers-alex-smith-nfl

Of course Smith could stay on the team in term of mathematics. But Smith isnt worth $8.5 million as a back up. I cant believe you are OK with paying a back up $8.5 million!!!!

How in the world do you think Baalke, who has been extremely cheap with FA, is all of a sudden going to splurge on a back up player at the ring of $8.5 million?

And you think we would pay Smith $8.5 million just so he doesnt go to Arizona?

Harbaugh was willing to part ways when he was pursuing Manning. Now that he has Kaep, you think he is all of sudden attatched to Smith?