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MadDog's 49ers Draft Board- Stacking the Board

Originally posted by Amir:
NOBODY can be right all the time, we all get that. Our issue with you is that you won't admit when you're wrong. For example, you rated Gabbert higher than Cam and Andy. Let's be real. I know it's only been a year but Gabbert is looking like a bust and Cam and Andy look like they're gonna be great players. Again, I'll give you a few more years for you to try and be correct about that. But instead of saying you may have been wrong about Gabbert, you say how you and OTC and other GM's had Gabbert rated higher than Cam so therefore we can't rag on you because other people were wrong.

If you're gonna bring up the times you're right, don't get butt-hurt when we bring up the times you're wrong. Simple as that. And don't say you don't bring up the times you would have been right. You did it in this very thread.

Nobody is butt hurt and nobody is right or wrong at this point. I think a lot of fans were personally hurt that I did not give a glowing grade to Aldon and CK and they made it a personal issue. Instead of arguing the merits of cases, they went on personal attacks, or attempts to discredit me through a pick or two from the hundreds I have analyzed over the years on the board. They demanded that I admit I was wrong, that I apologize, and a lot of other silly things.

As stated before, I dont apologize for an honest evaluation, and I don't admit fault or error within a few games or a year of a player's performance. I have readily admitted dozens of times, to angry board members that I undervalued how Aldon would do his first year, and he appears to be on the way to a successful career. But nobody is right or wrong about a first year player. CK cold end up better than Newton or Dalton, but as of right now, it doesnt look good, just like it doesn't for Gabbert. Nobody is right or wrong. My pick, Watt, had a great first year, but he could end up being a bust. A late round WR could emerge better than ProBowler AJ Green, who I had on the top of my board.

People just take things way too seriously. This is for fun.
5280, My point, as stated numerous times in the past, is that if you are going to use a 7th overall on a 34 backer, the dude better have elite athleticism. Aldon has great length, and size, but the other measurables were not outstanding. Smith did look on tape, but much of his production was as an interior rusher on passing downs at Missouri. He didnt have a lot of impressive tape of beating OT's off the line. There was only about 1 1/2 years of tape anyways.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks, based on tape and the measurables at the combine and ProDay that Aldon would have the explosiveness we saw his rookie year. He was a pleasant surprise for the team.

I feel we are revisiting the same arguments from the past
[ Edited by MadDog49er on May 3, 2012 at 9:42 AM ]
  • Amir
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Nobody is butt hurt and nobody is right or wrong at this point. I think a lot of fans were personally hurt that I did not give a glowing grade to Aldon and CK and they made it a personal issue. Instead of arguing the merits of cases, they went on personal attacks, or attempts to discredit me through a pick or two from the hundreds I have analyzed over the years on the board. They demanded that I admit I was wrong, that I apologize, and a lot of other silly things.

As stated before, I dont apologize for an honest evaluation, and I don't admit fault or error within a few games or a year of a player's performance. I have readily admitted dozens of times, to angry board members that I undervalued how Aldon would do his first year, and he appears to be on the way to a successful career. But nobody is right or wrong about a first year player. CK cold end up better than Newton or Dalton, but as of right now, it doesnt look good, just like it doesn't for Gabbert. Nobody is right or wrong. My pick, Watt, had a great first year, but he could end up being a bust. A late round WR could emerge better than ProBowler AJ Green, who I had on the top of my board.

People just take things way too seriously. This is for fun.

Fair enough. Again, I'm simply saying that when you bring up times that you are right, expect people to bring up times you're wrong. That is all.
  • dj43
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I know I don't have any chips in this game but, Blaine Gabbert was widely regarded as the best QB in the draft last season. However, he was dumped into a terrible situation last season, and as the season wound down, the lack of support he had at all levels ate away his confidence and it showed in his performance.

Andy Dalton (AJ Green) and Cam Newton (Stevie Smith) came into MUCH better situations and excelled. Let's see a couple of seasons roll around and see what happens. To grade Gabbert based on just last year is FAR too premature. Put either Newton or Dalton in the same situation as Gabbert and I doubt the results would have been any better than Gabbert.

As to Aldon Smith; we all hope he far exceeds MD's projections but again, we should not get too over-the-top about him quite yet. He was not asked to do very much last season other than rush the passer. Fangio did a good job of keeping his role and his requirements very basic. He snuck up on a lot of teams who did not have much film on him. What he does this coming season when other teams will have scouted him thoroughly, and what he does when he is asked to become a more complete OLB will give us a much better picture of his value to the team. If he can become a 3-down player and perform all that is expected of an OLB, including dropping into coverage, then we can all look back and say that the pundits were wrong. OTOH, if all he winds up doing well is rushing the passer, then he will be considered to have been a very poor value for the #7 overall pick.

This is why grading a draft until three years have passed is a rather academic, unrealistic exercise.
  • Amir
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Originally posted by dj43:
I know I don't have any chips in this game but, Blaine Gabbert was widely regarded as the best QB in the draft last season. However, he was dumped into a terrible situation last season, and as the season wound down, the lack of support he had at all levels ate away his confidence and it showed in his performance.

Andy Dalton (AJ Green) and Cam Newton (Stevie Smith) came into MUCH better situations and excelled. Let's see a couple of seasons roll around and see what happens. To grade Gabbert based on just last year is FAR too premature. Put either Newton or Dalton in the same situation as Gabbert and I doubt the results would have been any better than Gabbert.

As to Aldon Smith; we all hope he far exceeds MD's projections but again, we should not get too over-the-top about him quite yet. He was not asked to do very much last season other than rush the passer. Fangio did a good job of keeping his role and his requirements very basic. He snuck up on a lot of teams who did not have much film on him. What he does this coming season when other teams will have scouted him thoroughly, and what he does when he is asked to become a more complete OLB will give us a much better picture of his value to the team. If he can become a 3-down player and perform all that is expected of an OLB, including dropping into coverage, then we can all look back and say that the pundits were wrong. OTOH, if all he winds up doing well is rushing the passer, then he will be considered to have been a very poor value for the #7 overall pick.

This is why grading a draft until three years have passed is a rather academic, unrealistic exercise.

Andy DEF came into a betters situation. Cam's situation was slightly better than Gabberts. Both Cam and Dalton had good RB's and yes Cam had Steve Smith but many questioned if he was any good. Again, I agree that for every prospect, it takes atleast 2-3 years to judge them but Cam didn't just play well, he played LIGHTS OUT. Again, he may end up being a bust and Gabbert might end up being better but don't discredit what Cam did last year.
I'd be SHOCKED if Cam ending up being a bust, barring an incredibly severe injury. He wasn't just good, he was electric. He was one of the few personnel changes on the offensive side of the ball (IIRC) for the Panthers last year, and his presence alone improved them immensely. To me it's already clear that he's on a completely different level than Gabbert.
  • Amir
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Originally posted by LA9erFan:
I'd be SHOCKED if Cam ending up being a bust, barring an incredibly severe injury. He wasn't just good, he was electric. He was one of the few personnel changes on the offensive side of the ball (IIRC) for the Panthers last year, and his presence alone improved them immensely. To me it's already clear that he's on a completely different level than Gabbert.

Agreed. Cam looks like the real deal while Sunshine looks to be a bust. Again, I'll give Sunshine another two years to turn it around.

  • dj43
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Originally posted by Amir:
Originally posted by dj43:
I know I don't have any chips in this game but, Blaine Gabbert was widely regarded as the best QB in the draft last season. However, he was dumped into a terrible situation last season, and as the season wound down, the lack of support he had at all levels ate away his confidence and it showed in his performance.

Andy Dalton (AJ Green) and Cam Newton (Stevie Smith) came into MUCH better situations and excelled. Let's see a couple of seasons roll around and see what happens. To grade Gabbert based on just last year is FAR too premature. Put either Newton or Dalton in the same situation as Gabbert and I doubt the results would have been any better than Gabbert.

As to Aldon Smith; we all hope he far exceeds MD's projections but again, we should not get too over-the-top about him quite yet. He was not asked to do very much last season other than rush the passer. Fangio did a good job of keeping his role and his requirements very basic. He snuck up on a lot of teams who did not have much film on him. What he does this coming season when other teams will have scouted him thoroughly, and what he does when he is asked to become a more complete OLB will give us a much better picture of his value to the team. If he can become a 3-down player and perform all that is expected of an OLB, including dropping into coverage, then we can all look back and say that the pundits were wrong. OTOH, if all he winds up doing well is rushing the passer, then he will be considered to have been a very poor value for the #7 overall pick.

This is why grading a draft until three years have passed is a rather academic, unrealistic exercise.

Andy DEF came into a betters situation. Cam's situation was slightly better than Gabberts. Both Cam and Dalton had good RB's and yes Cam had Steve Smith but many questioned if he was any good. Again, I agree that for every prospect, it takes atleast 2-3 years to judge them but Cam didn't just play well, he played LIGHTS OUT. Again, he may end up being a bust and Gabbert might end up being better but don't discredit what Cam did last year.

The question wasn't whether or not Smith was good. It was whether or not he was STILL good. What he proved was that with Newton, he was still very good, and that certainly helped Newton to do what he did.

We will never know but I highly doubt Newton would have done anything close to his Carolina numbers if he was in Gabbert's shoes.

As I recall it, people did not question Newton's skill set. What they questioned was whether or not it would translate to the NFL and how long it might take.

It is interesting to reflect back on RGIII and what people are expecting of him in Washington. Newton's year has put a great deal of pressure on RG to do something similar. If he doesn't, he will be a HUGE disappointment all around.
Maddog is a great contributor to this board and I for one appreciate all the work and input he gives the zone. I find it odd how people take joy in pointing out every time he is wrong since no one can be perfect.
Thaddeus Gibson - another guy I felt we could have really developed into a star. Too bad he was a head case!
MadDog.....the only reason we go over this again is when you do your revisited Top Five evaluation pick of the 2011 draft........Aldon Smith doesn't make the top five. And you have had time to watch the Niners plenty........so rating Aldon out of the top five is a little strange. And dude props to you for nailing the JJ WATT pick, but I think most people on the board would taken Aldon.

It's that kind of thinking that drives some people on the board nuts over your posts. But again if it's to be contriversial, you are doing a good job.
Originally posted by Oldschool9erfan:
MadDog.....the only reason we go over this again is when you do your revisited Top Five evaluation pick of the 2011 draft........Aldon Smith doesn't make the top five. And you have had time to watch the Niners plenty........so rating Aldon out of the top five is a little strange. And dude props to you for nailing the JJ WATT pick, but I think most people on the board would taken Aldon.

It's that kind of thinking that drives some people on the board nuts over your posts. But again if it's to be contriversial, you are doing a good job.

Thanks for the kind thoughts. You are right about a revisit of the board. In a normal year, the Smith would be a top 5 pick. However, the draft was so outstanding last year that he wouldn't make the top 5. If you had to put a gun to my head, I'd probably put this as the board:
1. Cam Newton
2. AJ Green
3. Patrick Peterson
4. JJ Watt
5. Von Miller

The challenge for Smith this year is to step in as an every-down starter, and improve dropping into coverage. This year, he will be standing up much more than putting his hand on the ground. I wish the kid the best of luck.
No way! If last years draft was revisited now, Aldon would be much more coveted than Von Miller. Smith is an established pass rusher from the inside or out, and a higher valuable position at 3/4 backer who has the strength to overpower Offensive tackles and the length to shed blockers. A team would even trade up for that talent--I believe, before going after Von Miller
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
No way! If last years draft was revisited now, Aldon would be much more coveted than Von Miller. Smith is an established pass rusher from the inside or out, and a higher valuable position at 3/4 backer who has the strength to overpower Offensive tackles and the length to shed blockers. A team would even trade up for that talent--I believe, before going after Von Miller

Highly doubtful Smith would go before Miller. Miller was in contention for Defensive Player of the Year from some sportswriters early in the year, but was a shadow of himself after breaking his hand. I think Niners' fans have a tendency to forget that, but writers realized it in their final vote.

As much as Smith played very well, he was a situational pass rusher. If he can start and show a better well-rounded game as a 34 backer, you may have a stronger argument. Miller did it all as a rookie, from dropping into coverage as well as attacking off the edge on passing downs. Smith was, in essence a 43 DE.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
5280, My point, as stated numerous times in the past, is that if you are going to use a 7th overall on a 34 backer, the dude better have elite athleticism. Aldon has great length, and size, but the other measurables were not outstanding. Smith did look on tape, but much of his production was as an interior rusher on passing downs at Missouri. He didnt have a lot of impressive tape of beating OT's off the line. There was only about 1 1/2 years of tape anyways.

You would be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks, based on tape and the measurables at the combine and ProDay that Aldon would have the explosiveness we saw his rookie year. He was a pleasant surprise for the team.


I don't think it's fair to say to say that the team was surprised by Aldon Smith's athleticism, because as you said, if a team is spending the 7th pick overall on a 3-4 linebacker, the dude better have elite athleticism. I don't think you give the team enough credit for their picks, it's not like they just aggregate a bunch of draft sites and then pick the best "value," they went against the grain/pundits and picked the guy they liked because they thought he had the explosion/length/size/ability to be a premier pass rusher (and I still maintain Smith was not a reach given his draft stock was a mid 1st round pick).

They scouted him in person to see his athleticism, both at the combine and at his pro day, and so I'd think they'd have a good idea of how he moved regardless of the combine. And honestly, his measurables are elite, as far as I'm concerned. His 40 time wasn't great, if that's how you define athleticism, but if you look closer, his 10 yard split, which is more important, is pretty great at 1.66, although not a Mario Williams type freak (for comparison, JPP was a 1.65, Ware a 1.62, Mario a 1.60). His vertical/broad jump were pretty good too. I wouldn't call him a freak athlete, but I think he's certainly explosive enough to be a great player. Claiming him to have mediocre measurables is selling it quite short.

For what it's worth, Michael Lombardi loved Aldon Smith (in addition to the 49ers).