MadDog's 49ers Draft Board- Stacking the Board

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Nice work, Mad Dog. Couple of questions for you:

What are your thoughts on Charles Brown? Under the radar, LT only, fit for a zone blocking scheme only, etc.

What are your thoughts about Devin McCourty? IMO he fits the Niners mold perfectly with his size, speed and special teams ability. But where does he fit value wise?

I think Brown is the odds-on favorite to be the pick at 17, unless the Giants grab himat 15, or the Seahawks take Berry at 6 and then Brown at 14.

Brown has gained some weight to be in the 300-305 pound range, and can probably still stack on ten more pounds. He'll never be a 325 jumbo-sized guy like Davis. Brown has a lot in common with Staley: former TE's, guys who added weight to get to 300 pounds before the draft, both players flying under the radar until the end, and a solid pass protector who needs to work on the running game. Strikingly similar.

Brown played in a pro-style set at USC, and appears more than nimble enough to play in a zone scheme, or in our hybrid-style system (I'm not sure what direction our team will head in blocking schemes this year). Probably best at LT, but there is enough there to think that RT is not going to be an issue.

I have been a big fan of McCourty for some time. He presents late first, early second round value. Great size/speed combo, sensational footwork, hustle. He can play on an island. Excellent special teamer (probably top 5 in the draft) who will play nickle this year, and then start next year when Clements is released.

If the Niners do not draft Haden, Thomas, Wilson in the first round, then I think they target Owusu-Ansah in the second, especially with his return ability. He is a brilliant return man.

MD, I believe you said Williams will be the first tackle selected. I would have said, "No" a few months ago, but in looking at the Redskins and doing a little deeper background on them, they do not feel they need another left tackle, and many fans say the Okung pick wouldn't make any sense.

I say take the BPA, but I can indeed see Washington selecting Williams regardless because of his athleticism and the belief that, even though they would play him at RT, he could be a better left tackle in the future anyways than Okung.

I understand the 49ers have in fact conducted some scouting at the Indiana-Pennsylvania university, and surely hope that what they've seen in Akwasi will push them to select him in the 2nd. I say the 2nd, because I see zero indications that he will come anywhere near our 3rd rounder, who I still believe we are targeting Ricky Sapp for if he makes it there.

What's up, brother?

The word seems to be building that the Skins like Williams better in their zone blocking scheme. I think KC would do backflips if this scenario played out.

Owusu-Ansah is a terrific target at number 49, although I think the Niners have Haden VERY high on their boards. The big question is whether someone will trade above the Niners to grab him. There are a ton of teams in that 18-24 range that might make a leapfrog over us.

I don't think Haden is going to make it to us. I also do not believe Spiller is going to make it to us either.

I see Jacksonville and Miami as the potential landing spots for both players. If Seattle selects Berry, Cleveland will take Haden. I am curious as to what the 49ers think about Earl Thomas. I am not a fan of Thomas whatsoever, but I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that they could take him with #17 in the right scenario.

If Buffalo selects a tackle, we could be choosing between Brown and Bulaga at #13. I believe we'd choose Brown, and the Seahawks would then take Bulaga.

My bewildered mind is swirling with thoughts of scenario after scenario.

My ideal 1st round would have us land a combination of OT, and OLB Brandon Graham. Somehow, I think the chances of the 49ers drafted Graham are quite low.

So many scenarios. It is nuts, I agree.

I pretty much agree across the board. I don't see Spiller, nor Haden, on the board at 13, and I don't think Graham will be strongly considered. I think they are going to target Arthur Moats with their fourth rounder.

The first five picks in the draft seem pretty set to me, with Bradford, Suh, McCoy, Williams, and Okung appearing to be interchangeable, but fitting in that top group. Seattle really begins the draft at number 6. I think they are going Anthony Davis, but wouldn't be shocked if they selected Berry (I'd chose Berry over Davis without even thinking). If Cleveland loses out on Berry, the seventh overall could be a shock selection: Spiller or Odrick or Thomas. I think the team will pass on Haden after the trade for Sheldon Brown, but who knows? Maybe they double-up at CB? Maybe they solve the biggest issue on defense: free safety. I would lay big money they would do everything in their power to trade down.

The Rams-Browns prospectful trade would also throw a major curveball. I just don't see the Rams moving down that far.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jta854:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jta854:
Hey MadDog, what is your specific reason for having Jason Pierre-Paul so low? I can think of two reasons he would be that low, 1) he only played one season, 2) He may be better in a 4-3. Did you have a different reason in mind, or was it a combination of a couple of reasons?

I think he would be great as a 3-4 OLB, but he has so little film I would drop his value, I just think that would put his value at ~13.

Very inexperienced, and dumb as a brick. Maybe the least intelligent player in the draft. I want our OLB's to be sharp.

Wow. I hadn't heard that. Is that coming form his wonderlic score, or rumors about his interviews?

Talk before and after the combine. Some speculated his Wonderlic would be microscopic. Not sure on the final numbers, but some scouts are worried that the complexities of an NFL defense would be too much for him as a 3-4 OLB.

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jta854:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by jta854:
Hey MadDog, what is your specific reason for having Jason Pierre-Paul so low? I can think of two reasons he would be that low, 1) he only played one season, 2) He may be better in a 4-3. Did you have a different reason in mind, or was it a combination of a couple of reasons?

I think he would be great as a 3-4 OLB, but he has so little film I would drop his value, I just think that would put his value at ~13.

Very inexperienced, and dumb as a brick. Maybe the least intelligent player in the draft. I want our OLB's to be sharp.

Wow. I hadn't heard that. Is that coming form his wonderlic score, or rumors about his interviews?

Talk before and after the combine. Some speculated his Wonderlic would be microscopic. Not sure on the final numbers, but some scouts are worried that the complexities of an NFL defense would be too much for him as a 3-4 OLB.

Also, just to add, word is that he interviewed quite poorly as well.

Pierre-Paul is a player I believe could have some risk of falling out of the first round.

Originally posted by Kalen49ers:
Interesting that you would place Charles Brown ahead of Bulaga

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:

Originally posted by m_brockalexander:
Nice work, Mad Dog. Couple of questions for you:

What are your thoughts on Charles Brown? Under the radar, LT only, fit for a zone blocking scheme only, etc.

What are your thoughts about Devin McCourty? IMO he fits the Niners mold perfectly with his size, speed and special teams ability. But where does he fit value wise?

I think Brown is the odds-on favorite to be the pick at 17, unless the Giants grab himat 15, or the Seahawks take Berry at 6 and then Brown at 14.

Brown has gained some weight to be in the 300-305 pound range, and can probably still stack on ten more pounds. He'll never be a 325 jumbo-sized guy like Davis. Brown has a lot in common with Staley: former TE's, guys who added weight to get to 300 pounds before the draft, both players flying under the radar until the end, and a solid pass protector who needs to work on the running game. Strikingly similar.

Brown played in a pro-style set at USC, and appears more than nimble enough to play in a zone scheme, or in our hybrid-style system (I'm not sure what direction our team will head in blocking schemes this year). Probably best at LT, but there is enough there to think that RT is not going to be an issue.

I have been a big fan of McCourty for some time. He presents late first, early second round value. Great size/speed combo, sensational footwork, hustle. He can play on an island. Excellent special teamer (probably top 5 in the draft) who will play nickle this year, and then start next year when Clements is released.

If the Niners do not draft Haden, Thomas, Wilson in the first round, then I think they target Owusu-Ansah in the second, especially with his return ability. He is a brilliant return man.

MD, I believe you said Williams will be the first tackle selected. I would have said, "No" a few months ago, but in looking at the Redskins and doing a little deeper background on them, they do not feel they need another left tackle, and many fans say the Okung pick wouldn't make any sense.

I say take the BPA, but I can indeed see Washington selecting Williams regardless because of his athleticism and the belief that, even though they would play him at RT, he could be a better left tackle in the future anyways than Okung.

I understand the 49ers have in fact conducted some scouting at the Indiana-Pennsylvania university, and surely hope that what they've seen in Akwasi will push them to select him in the 2nd. I say the 2nd, because I see zero indications that he will come anywhere near our 3rd rounder, who I still believe we are targeting Ricky Sapp for if he makes it there.

What's up, brother?

The word seems to be building that the Skins like Williams better in their zone blocking scheme. I think KC would do backflips if this scenario played out.

Owusu-Ansah is a terrific target at number 49, although I think the Niners have Haden VERY high on their boards. The big question is whether someone will trade above the Niners to grab him. There are a ton of teams in that 18-24 range that might make a leapfrog over us.

I don't think Haden is going to make it to us. I also do not believe Spiller is going to make it to us either.

I see Jacksonville and Miami as the potential landing spots for both players. If Seattle selects Berry, Cleveland will take Haden. I am curious as to what the 49ers think about Earl Thomas. I am not a fan of Thomas whatsoever, but I have this feeling in the pit of my stomach that they could take him with #17 in the right scenario.

If Buffalo selects a tackle, we could be choosing between Brown and Bulaga at #13. I believe we'd choose Brown, and the Seahawks would then take Bulaga.

My bewildered mind is swirling with thoughts of scenario after scenario.

My ideal 1st round would have us land a combination of OT, and OLB Brandon Graham. Somehow, I think the chances of the 49ers drafted Graham are quite low.

So many scenarios. It is nuts, I agree.

I pretty much agree across the board. I don't see Spiller, nor Haden, on the board at 13, and I don't think Graham will be strongly considered. I think they are going to target Arthur Moats with their fourth rounder.

The first five picks in the draft seem pretty set to me, with Bradford, Suh, McCoy, Williams, and Okung appearing to be interchangeable, but fitting in that top group. Seattle really begins the draft at number 6. I think they are going Anthony Davis, but wouldn't be shocked if they selected Berry (I'd chose Berry over Davis without even thinking). If Cleveland loses out on Berry, the seventh overall could be a shock selection: Spiller or Odrick or Thomas. I think the team will pass on Haden after the trade for Sheldon Brown, but who knows? Maybe they double-up at CB? Maybe they solve the biggest issue on defense: free safety. I would lay big money they would do everything in their power to trade down.

The Rams-Browns prospectful trade would also throw a major curveball. I just don't see the Rams moving down that far.

We definitely see eye to eye on Moats -- I can certainly see it happening. We seem in no hurry to take a pass-rusher early. I've been a major supporter of this kid this year. I'm glad he finally got some publicity and recognition.

I would be dumbfounded if Cleveland took Mays. I wonder if they would actually be that crazy?

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
With the draft only one week away, I wanted to reveal my draft board, if put in the position of GM's for this 2010 draft.

As you all know, when creating draft boards, teams can use various strategies. They may create a best player avaliable (BPA) board: stack their players based on how they rank overall, and draft in that order, regardless of position. The Rams did this years ago by selecting Steven Jackson, even though Marshall Faulk was a star for the team. It was a head scratcher then, but makes perfect sense now.

Other teams downgrade players from positions of less importance to the team, or due to a strong depth chart in that position, and create a needs-based board. Or, in the case of Dez Bryant, the riskiness of a player's off the field actions may move them slightly, or dramatically, down a draft board (in my opinion, Bryant is the fourth best player in the entire draft, but I have stacked him lower due to character concerns).

Finally, teams rarely draft players who do not fit their schemes. That is why I don't even stack Sean Weatherspoon, Daryl Washington, Brian Price, and others on this board. And, why I have players who may, or may not, fit our scheme, such as Derrick Morgan, stacked lower than expected. These players present a greater risk than others who fit the scheme, but do pose value later in the draft as someone who may be able to transition successfully (if they magically fall that low).

There are pros and cons to a BPA approach and a needs-based approach. I tend to lean toward the best player available, regardless of position. However, I do make exceptions. I do not feel Bryan Bulaga is the 15th best overall player, but move him slightly higher on my board due to the critical team need, someone who can pass block.

Undoubtably, there will be surprises in this draft board. I have not been ashamed to trumpet the skills of Mike Iupati, Eric Berry and Akwasi Owusu-Ansah. I think Iupati is a future Pro-Bowl star. I also think that Eric Berry is the best player in the draft, and the one that will make the most impact in the league. To me, Owusu-Ansah is a terrific player, and someone who will surprise in this league. And, I really respect two safeties who would present a major upgrade for the team, if on the board at number 49: Nate Allen and Morgan Burnett.

On the flip side, I am highly skeptical toward Taylor Mays, Patrick Robinson and Tim Tebow. I see major flaws in each of their games that will be highly problematic in the NFL. I could write a dissertation on Mays, who I have have never liked as an NFL player (feel free to read my posts from two years ago).

Have fun, and feel free to ask questions, rip me for being an idiot, etc.
I will be posting a new Big 255 Board this weekend.

Cheers.


MadDog's 49ers Draft Board- Stacking the Top 50 Players

Board Rank Name Position
1 Eric Berry S
2 Ndamukong Suh DT/DE
3 Russell Okung OT
4 CJ Spiller RB
5 Sam Bradford QB
6 Gerald McCoy DT/DE
7 Joe Haden CB
8 Mike Iupati G/OT
9 Brandon Graham OLB
10 Dez Bryant WR
11 Trent Williams OT
12 Anthony Davis OT
13 Charles Brown OT
14 Maurkice Pouncey C/G
15 Bryan Bulaga OT
16 Kyle Wilson CB
17 Earl Thomas CB/S
18 Dan Williams NT
19 Jared Odrick DE
20 Ryan Matthews RB
21 Rolando McClain LB
22 Bruce Campbell OT
23 Rodger Saffold OT
24 Nate Allen S
25 Morgan Burnett S
26 Devin McCourty CB
27 Akwasi Owusu-Ansah CB/S
28 Arrelious Benn WR
29 Sergio Kindle OLB
30 Jason Pierre-Paul OLB
31 Jerry Hughes OLB
32 John Jerry G/OT
33 Jahvid Best RB
34 Golden Tate WR
35 Jon Asamoah G
36 Jason Worilds OLB
37 Everson Griffen OLB
38 Derrick Morgan OLB/DE
39 Jimmy Clausen QB
40 Chad Jones S
41 Jermaine Gresham TE
42 Dexter McCluster RB
43 Vladimir Ducasse OT
44 Aaron Hernandez TE
45 Jared Veldheer OT
46 Koa Misi OLB
47 Demaryius Thomas WR
48 Kareem Jackson CB
49 Terrence Cody NT
50 Thaddeus Gibson OLB

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
According to my draft board, the Niners picked up the 8th and 12th best players for the 11th and 17th overall picks. Good value selections.

Brilliant start so far.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Based on my board, at the 30th pick, the best avaliable players are now (passing on the OL):
1) Nate Allen
2) Morgan Burnett
3) Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
4) Arrelious Benn
5) Sergio Kindle
6) Jerry Hughes

Originally posted by OnTheClock:

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Based on my board, at the 30th pick, the best avaliable players are now (passing on the OL):
1) Nate Allen
2) Morgan Burnett
3) Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
4) Arrelious Benn
5) Sergio Kindle
6) Jerry Hughes

Well, no more Hughes now. I had him going 43rd overall to Miami.

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Based on my board, at the 30th pick, the best avaliable players are now (passing on the OL):
1) Nate Allen
2) Morgan Burnett
3) Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
4) Arrelious Benn
5) Sergio Kindle
6) Jerry Hughes