Offseason Post: Thoughts on the Draft... | Page 5

Marvin49 · 2015-05-04T09:56:56-07:00

Seemed like it was time. :) BTW, adding my link again here to the ESPN and NFL Network coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CWK_cXUoNY Before I get into the players, some thoughts on the draft strategy in general: So much has been made of the Niners not addressing their "needs". They lost a bunch of players and they needed immediate starters, right? Well I think it's pretty obvious that the perceived needs of the team differed greatly between the media and fans and the team itself. I mean, "OMG, they lost BOTH starting corners, they lost 2 LBs, Frank Gore, Justin Smith might retire and Iupati and Crabtree left as FAs!! The world is ending and the Niners need to draft and hit on every pick at those positions where they lost players!!!". Right? Wrong. That popular viewpoint that is earning the Niners horrible draft grades all over the country is based on a fallacy. Its based on the impression that the Niners desperately needed to find replacements for all of those lost free agents. The truth? In many cases, they already had. They are untested for sure and time will tell if they are adequate replacements, but outside of Borland, they didn't lose a single player they didn't EXPECT to lose this year or in the near future. Willis was something of a surprise, but they knew it was coming at some point and was a big reason they selected Borland in the first place. Lost Gore? Already drafted Hyde and Hunter. Lost Iupati? Already drafted Martin and Thomas. Lost Crabtree? Already drafted Patton and Ellington AND signed Torrey Smith. Lost BOTH starting Corners (not really true to begin with...Brock was a starter)? Drafted Dontae Johnson, Kenneth Acker, and Keith Reaser last year. All the complaining about Niners not taking immediate day 1 starters? Well, you are about to see why. They selected the above players KNOWING what was coming down the line. Would drafting a bunch of players at those positions with no guarantee that they are any better than the guys they took the last two years be the smart move what they have a whole NEW lost of players whom they may lose NEXT year. Tell me if these positions sound familiar... DE: Justin Smith retiring, Ray McDonald released. SS: Antoine Bethea is 30. OLB: Ahmad Brooks likely short for the Team. TE: Vernon Davis likely in his final year WR (and more specifically, big, strong, possession WR): Anquan Boldin possibly in final year OG: Alex Boone in final year of contract. Now look at those needs next year and compare them to the players they selected. Do ya see it? What I'm saying here is that the 49ers ARE drafting for positions of need. NEXT years need. That may drive some of you crazy, but you are failing to realize they've been doing this for a few years now and they ALREADY HAVE players they like who they drafted to fill the positions they EXPECTED to need help with this year. While people are all up in arms over drafting for future need, it IS the future now for those picks from years past. The frustration over this to me is just really short sighted and misses the entire point of their draft strategy from the beginning. Are the players they selected last year for this years need and this year for next years need adequate replacements? Well that's an entirely different conversation, but does taking a CB in the 4th round address a need when they already took 3 guys last year that they like? Is adding a FOURTH guy to that mix smarter than addressing needs down the road? One more thing. "Projects". I keep reading criticism of Niners taking projects. Well, 1) ALL college players are projects, 2) Just because a player is considered a project doesn't mean that he should not be taken fairly high if his ceiling is off the charts, 3) I'm reminded of a line from York about the coaches he wanted. "Teachers". That really stuck in my mind when Tomsula was hired along with his staff and they selected player after player with huge potential but with work to do. On to the picks themselves... 1) Arik Armstead: "Project". Off the charts athleticism. I have to admit to not being stoked about the pick. I knew it was a very real possibility in the weeks leading up to the draft but I fell into the "I want a sexy pick" trap at 15. Truth be told, some of Niners best picks in round 1 have NOT been "sexy" picks. When they focus on the big guys up front, good things tend to happen. Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati...all interior players drafting in first round. Staley was also a big project pick BTW. Peeps keep citing Kentwan Balmer. I think that's ludicrous. That's like saying Megatron was a bad pick because Detroit selected Mike Williams a previous year. Different players. Kid has off the charts tools and even though he's a project, he actually has more experience at the position than most other players would coming in. It won't be a Tank Carradine transition. Tank was an edge rusher learning to player a completely different style. Armstead while he needs refinement, already knows the position. 2) Jaquiski Tartt: I have to admit, this one was a major WTF moment. Denzel Perryman was sitting there and I really thought he's be the pick...and they take a safety? Really? Now tho, while I still wish they'd found a way to take Perryman, I really like Tartt. As I stated above, it doesn't fill an immediate need, but I positional need aside, I really like the player. Bruiser who can run. Watching highlights I really like the way he closes on ball carriers. Seems to accelerate through the player. This went from being a major WTF to one of my favorite picks. 3) Eli Harold: Again...OLB? Seems they are stacked there. Another case of really liking the player, but not understanding immediately what they were doing. I think this was the pick where I was kinda starting to realize that they were looking at next years needs, not this years. Pretty obvious in retrospect. You can never have enough pass rushers. Seems a little light and skinny to me, but seems a great value in that spot. 4) Blake Bell: Reminds me a bit of Brent Jones and Gronk. No idea if he's close to the player eventually that either of those guys are, but that's really what my initial thoughts were after the pick. 5) Mike Davis: Shocker. Baalke took a RB. It's only 7 years in a row now that they've done so. :) Like the player. I like that he's a load and not a scat back. They have enough of that with Bush and Hunter. I like that they have 2 bruisers now. 6) DeAndre Smelter: Love this pick. They didn't need to look for a speed WR anymore. With Simpson and Smith on the roster, they need to be looking at a guy to take over for Anquan down the road. This guy is perfect. big, strong, compact, faster than you'd expect, and HUGE hands. Tremendous athlete. LOVE this pick. 7) Bradley Pinion: I must confess another major WTF moment when I saw this pick, but again...kinda makes sense. I've read peeps trippin' on Niners selecting a punter, but it seems people quickly forget that Andy Lee was a 6th round pick himself. He's also 32 and making 2.5 mil. The age for a punter not really an issue, but the money might be. That's a big savings AND he addresses two other issues....HUGE leg on kickoffs (which Dawson doesn't have anymore) and long FG attempts. Dude is a freakin' 6'5" and 230 lb monster of a punter. I'm not sure I want to see Lee go as I think he's the best in the league, but this pick isn't nearly as preposterous as some peeps let on. 8) Ian Silberman: Around this point of the draft I must confess to having no clue what to say. Clearly OG is a need moving forward with Iupati gone and Boone likely to follow. 9) Trenton Brown: See above....tho 6'8", 355!?! I mean seriously? If nothing else that size piques my curiosity. 10) Rory "Busta" Anderson: Must admit I knew very little about him prior to the draft, but I'm sitting there watching his ESPN highlights and then listening to Kiper and McShay talk about him and I'm thinkin, "huh? He looks pretty damn good for a 7th round pick". I'm sure there are some holes there and they mentioned him not really being a blocker and bad some bad drops...but couldn't we say the same about Delanie Walker coming in? Just sayin'.

May 4, 2015 at 1:02 PM

#61

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,938

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

I'm going off of what he said that all of these players are going to be replacements in the future via his examples above. Seems like this was a rehash of the plan in 2012 which clearly didn't work out:

WR AJ Jenkins for Randy Moss
RB LaMichael James for Frank Gore
C/OG Joe Looney for Jonathan Goodwin
OLB Darius Flemming for Ahmad Brooks
S Trenton Robinson for Dashon Goldson
T Jason Slowey for Mike Person
OLB Cam Johnson for Parys Haralson

Can't use an entire draft hoping half of the project players you draft pan out to be solid pros when there were guys on the board at the picks that could have made an impact this year.

Most players DON'T pan out and it's that way on every NFL team. BTW, LMJ was NEVER thought to be even close to a replacement for Frank Gore.

AJ for Moss, LMJ for Gore, Robinson for Goldson...your stretching it man.

May 4, 2015 at 1:03 PM

#62

LasVegasWally
Veteran
Posts: 24,853

THANKS marv!

Cool, calm and collected,

We needed this post!

May 4, 2015 at 1:07 PM

#63

PhillyNiner
Veteran
Posts: 8,995

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.

And some likely to blindly believe that our GM has never made a mistake and is above all criticism. To each their own.

Noooo but you cant just say 2012 every time you don't like something and expect everybody nod sagely like it is a good argument about every player we draft that isn't your crush either.

May 4, 2015 at 1:11 PM

#64

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,938

Originally posted by SoCold:
Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO

who says Peters plays over Wright or DJ anyway? both have experience in the NFL and a rookie is just that a rookie, same could be said for Perryman, I don't think he would start over MW....maybe Baalke didn't think there was value at those positions hence going to FA before the draft to grab Wright/Cook and Bishop/Wheeler

people keep forgetting about all of the players he's drafted the past two years that really haven't had a chance to play yet.

May 4, 2015 at 1:12 PM

#65

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.

And some likely to blindly believe that our GM has never made a mistake and is above all criticism. To each their own.

Noooo but you cant just say 2012 every time you don't like something and expect everybody nod sagely like it is a good argument about every player we draft that isn't your crush either.

It's not about a draft crush for me, it's the mentality of drafting players that can help the team this year in the early rounds. Nothing is ever 100% but taking one of the top CB's with the first round pick and getting an ILB in the 2nd would have at least made somewhat of an impact on two areas of the team where they either lost two of last years starters or had a future-HOF and a promising rookie retire.

May 4, 2015 at 1:17 PM

#66

PhillyNiner
Veteran
Posts: 8,995

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.

And some likely to blindly believe that our GM has never made a mistake and is above all criticism. To each their own.

Noooo but you cant just say 2012 every time you don't like something and expect everybody nod sagely like it is a good argument about every player we draft that isn't your crush either.

It's not about a draft crush for me, it's the mentality of drafting players that can help the team this year in the early rounds. Nothing is ever 100% but taking one of the top CB's with the first round pick and getting an ILB in the 2nd would have at least made somewhat of an impact on two areas of the team where they either lost two of last years starters or had a future-HOF and a promising rookie retire.

And while I agree with that in principle almost every single expert stated without qualification that there were virtually no day one starters outside the top ten at any position. So with that being said our GM decided to let us ride with the guys we have at those positions " of need" who have a year in the system even if they were injured and did not play last year and took guys who would have an opportunity to play next year in the same fashion given that none of them were likely to be ready to take over for the incumbent starter anyway. If there was a guy out there they felt was glaringly better than what we have in the pipeline from last year do you really think they would have said no and passed him over in favor of a guy who is a year out from playing?

[ Edited by PhillyNiner on May 4, 2015 at 1:18 PM ]

May 4, 2015 at 1:18 PM

#67

buck
Veteran
Posts: 13,137

Originally posted by English:
Nice work Marv. But the disconnect between the team's regularly stated intention and the fans short term expectations may not be bridgeable right now.

True. Your posts are entirely too positive for the current narrative.

good work.

May 4, 2015 at 1:19 PM

#68

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,938

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.

And some likely to blindly believe that our GM has never made a mistake and is above all criticism. To each their own.

Noooo but you cant just say 2012 every time you don't like something and expect everybody nod sagely like it is a good argument about every player we draft that isn't your crush either.

It's not about a draft crush for me, it's the mentality of drafting players that can help the team this year in the early rounds. Nothing is ever 100% but taking one of the top CB's with the first round pick and getting an ILB in the 2nd would have at least made somewhat of an impact on two areas of the team where they either lost two of last years starters or had a future-HOF and a promising rookie retire.

Or maybe DJ/Wright/Cook/Acker/Reaser would play over a rookie CB and MW, Bishop,Wheeler,or Moody would be playing over a rookie ILB in the 2nd. Baalke clearly didn't think the talent was there at those positions. (I didn't either)

Why would Baalke draft/sign all these players if he didn't think they could compete for a snaps? He clearly values pass-rushers and the interior d-line over CBs.

May 4, 2015 at 1:24 PM

#69

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
And while I agree with that in principle almost every single expert stated without qualification that there were virtually no day one starters outside the top ten at any position. So with that being said our GM decided to let us ride with the guys we have at those positions " of need" who have a year in the system even if they were injured and did not play last year and took guys who would have an opportunity to play next year in the same fashion given that none of them were likely to be ready to take over for the incumbent starter anyway. If there was a guy out there they felt was glaringly better than what we have in the pipeline from last year do you really think they would have said no and passed him over in favor of a guy who is a year out from playing?

I'm going to respectfully disagree with you there as I think picks 12-16 have a good chance of being day one starters without question, one of which was a CB we could have taken and the CB taken after us (Peters) has a good chance of opening the season as a starter also. I just don't agree with drafting for depth in the first round.

May 4, 2015 at 1:27 PM

#70

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

I don't get the whole argument that none of these draft picks will compete this year and make an immediate impact. Most draft picks don't start unless the team sucks or have a gaping hole. Even more rare is that rookie that comes in and blows everyone's hair back and he's a must start from day 1 and an instant pro bowler/all pro.

The reality though is that these rookies are being pegged for a LOT of playing time this year in some form or fashion (package players, ST, etc.) but that said, if ANY of them look fantastic out of the gate, every single one of them has a real shot to earn a FT job. Every one. And that's not something I could honestly say during the Harbaugh era.

[ Edited by NCommand on May 4, 2015 at 1:29 PM ]

May 4, 2015 at 1:28 PM

#71

SoCold
Hall of Dumb
Posts: 132,848

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SoCold:
Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO

who says Peters plays over Wright or DJ anyway? both have experience in the NFL and a rookie is just that a rookie, same could be said for Perryman, I don't think he would start over MW....maybe Baalke didn't think there was value at those positions hence going to FA before the draft to grab Wright/Cook and Bishop/Wheeler

people keep forgetting about all of the players he's drafted the past two years that really haven't had a chance to play yet.

then why in the heck trade back to gain a pick in round 4th and pick a TE ? do we need 5 TE's ? just stay put and draft the best player on your board.

I wanted them to take Kevin Johnson cause I think he will be the best pro CB out of this draft

and the draft went Kevin Johnson, Arik, Peters lol

Corner is high demand, can't have too many good ones imo

May 4, 2015 at 1:31 PM

#72

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Or maybe DJ/Wright/Cook/Acker/Reaser would play over a rookie CB and MW, Bishop,Wheeler,or Moody would be playing over a rookie ILB in the 2nd. Baalke clearly didn't think the talent was there at those positions. (I didn't either)

Why would Baalke draft/sign all these players if he didn't think they could compete for a snaps? He clearly values pass-rushers and the interior d-line over CBs.

I think Donte Johnson has a lot of potential but don't think he's better than Marcus Peters or Kevin Johnson. Wright and Cook are mediocre at best and Acker and Reaser are completely unknown. The MLBs taken in the 2nd are all possible starters at the very least which means their GMs thought they were upgrades at the position. I'm not a huge Wilhoite fan and thought there was room for an upgrade (36th ranked MLB in PFF last year) at the position.

Still could have gotten Eli Harold in the 3rd (I liked that pick a lot) and used some of the 4th rounders to draft some interior d-lineman that needed some development considering our HC is thought of as good at developing late-round defensive talent.

[ Edited by itlynstalyn on May 4, 2015 at 1:32 PM ]

May 4, 2015 at 1:31 PM

#73

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by SoCold:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SoCold:
Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO

who says Peters plays over Wright or DJ anyway? both have experience in the NFL and a rookie is just that a rookie, same could be said for Perryman, I don't think he would start over MW....maybe Baalke didn't think there was value at those positions hence going to FA before the draft to grab Wright/Cook and Bishop/Wheeler

people keep forgetting about all of the players he's drafted the past two years that really haven't had a chance to play yet.

then why in the heck trade back to gain a pick in round 4th and pick a TE ? do we need 5 TE's ? just stay put and draft the best player on your board.

I wanted them to take Kevin Johnson cause I think he will be the best pro CB out of this draft

and the draft went Kevin Johnson, Arik, Peters lol

Corner is high demand, can't have too many good ones imo

Good thing we're top 5 every year no matter who we play at CB....even street CB's. I wonder why that is...

May 4, 2015 at 1:37 PM

#74

SoCold
Hall of Dumb
Posts: 132,848

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by SoCold:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SoCold:
Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO

who says Peters plays over Wright or DJ anyway? both have experience in the NFL and a rookie is just that a rookie, same could be said for Perryman, I don't think he would start over MW....maybe Baalke didn't think there was value at those positions hence going to FA before the draft to grab Wright/Cook and Bishop/Wheeler

people keep forgetting about all of the players he's drafted the past two years that really haven't had a chance to play yet.

then why in the heck trade back to gain a pick in round 4th and pick a TE ? do we need 5 TE's ? just stay put and draft the best player on your board.

I wanted them to take Kevin Johnson cause I think he will be the best pro CB out of this draft

and the draft went Kevin Johnson, Arik, Peters lol

Corner is high demand, can't have too many good ones imo

Good thing we're top 5 every year no matter who we play at CB....even street CB's. I wonder why that is...

yeah good thing all our CB's got hurt at some point last year and we gave up 3 passing TD's to the Raiders

May 4, 2015 at 1:40 PM

#75

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by SoCold:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by SoCold:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by SoCold:
Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO

who says Peters plays over Wright or DJ anyway? both have experience in the NFL and a rookie is just that a rookie, same could be said for Perryman, I don't think he would start over MW....maybe Baalke didn't think there was value at those positions hence going to FA before the draft to grab Wright/Cook and Bishop/Wheeler

people keep forgetting about all of the players he's drafted the past two years that really haven't had a chance to play yet.

then why in the heck trade back to gain a pick in round 4th and pick a TE ? do we need 5 TE's ? just stay put and draft the best player on your board.

I wanted them to take Kevin Johnson cause I think he will be the best pro CB out of this draft

and the draft went Kevin Johnson, Arik, Peters lol

Corner is high demand, can't have too many good ones imo

Good thing we're top 5 every year no matter who we play at CB....even street CB's. I wonder why that is...

yeah good thing all our CB's got hurt at some point last year and we gave up 3 passing TD's to the Raiders

I ain't excusing that...still ended top 5 and #1 in TO's with dude's ending the year named Cromartie, McFadden, Johnson moved to the slot, etc. The point is this year, with that monster rotation along the DL and 6 legit pass rushers: Brooks/Lynch, Aldon/Harold, Carradine/Dockett and adding Tartt to middle of the field as the enforcer, no matter who wins the CB battles outside, they should have a huge year...they should be able to sit back there and order pizza...maybe do some laundry.

It's not like we're worried about Baalke finding quality DB's or something. Are we?

[ Edited by NCommand on May 4, 2015 at 1:42 PM ]