Offseason Post: Thoughts on the Draft... | Page 3

Marvin49 · 2015-05-04T09:56:56-07:00

Seemed like it was time. :) BTW, adding my link again here to the ESPN and NFL Network coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CWK_cXUoNY Before I get into the players, some thoughts on the draft strategy in general: So much has been made of the Niners not addressing their "needs". They lost a bunch of players and they needed immediate starters, right? Well I think it's pretty obvious that the perceived needs of the team differed greatly between the media and fans and the team itself. I mean, "OMG, they lost BOTH starting corners, they lost 2 LBs, Frank Gore, Justin Smith might retire and Iupati and Crabtree left as FAs!! The world is ending and the Niners need to draft and hit on every pick at those positions where they lost players!!!". Right? Wrong. That popular viewpoint that is earning the Niners horrible draft grades all over the country is based on a fallacy. Its based on the impression that the Niners desperately needed to find replacements for all of those lost free agents. The truth? In many cases, they already had. They are untested for sure and time will tell if they are adequate replacements, but outside of Borland, they didn't lose a single player they didn't EXPECT to lose this year or in the near future. Willis was something of a surprise, but they knew it was coming at some point and was a big reason they selected Borland in the first place. Lost Gore? Already drafted Hyde and Hunter. Lost Iupati? Already drafted Martin and Thomas. Lost Crabtree? Already drafted Patton and Ellington AND signed Torrey Smith. Lost BOTH starting Corners (not really true to begin with...Brock was a starter)? Drafted Dontae Johnson, Kenneth Acker, and Keith Reaser last year. All the complaining about Niners not taking immediate day 1 starters? Well, you are about to see why. They selected the above players KNOWING what was coming down the line. Would drafting a bunch of players at those positions with no guarantee that they are any better than the guys they took the last two years be the smart move what they have a whole NEW lost of players whom they may lose NEXT year. Tell me if these positions sound familiar... DE: Justin Smith retiring, Ray McDonald released. SS: Antoine Bethea is 30. OLB: Ahmad Brooks likely short for the Team. TE: Vernon Davis likely in his final year WR (and more specifically, big, strong, possession WR): Anquan Boldin possibly in final year OG: Alex Boone in final year of contract. Now look at those needs next year and compare them to the players they selected. Do ya see it? What I'm saying here is that the 49ers ARE drafting for positions of need. NEXT years need. That may drive some of you crazy, but you are failing to realize they've been doing this for a few years now and they ALREADY HAVE players they like who they drafted to fill the positions they EXPECTED to need help with this year. While people are all up in arms over drafting for future need, it IS the future now for those picks from years past. The frustration over this to me is just really short sighted and misses the entire point of their draft strategy from the beginning. Are the players they selected last year for this years need and this year for next years need adequate replacements? Well that's an entirely different conversation, but does taking a CB in the 4th round address a need when they already took 3 guys last year that they like? Is adding a FOURTH guy to that mix smarter than addressing needs down the road? One more thing. "Projects". I keep reading criticism of Niners taking projects. Well, 1) ALL college players are projects, 2) Just because a player is considered a project doesn't mean that he should not be taken fairly high if his ceiling is off the charts, 3) I'm reminded of a line from York about the coaches he wanted. "Teachers". That really stuck in my mind when Tomsula was hired along with his staff and they selected player after player with huge potential but with work to do. On to the picks themselves... 1) Arik Armstead: "Project". Off the charts athleticism. I have to admit to not being stoked about the pick. I knew it was a very real possibility in the weeks leading up to the draft but I fell into the "I want a sexy pick" trap at 15. Truth be told, some of Niners best picks in round 1 have NOT been "sexy" picks. When they focus on the big guys up front, good things tend to happen. Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati...all interior players drafting in first round. Staley was also a big project pick BTW. Peeps keep citing Kentwan Balmer. I think that's ludicrous. That's like saying Megatron was a bad pick because Detroit selected Mike Williams a previous year. Different players. Kid has off the charts tools and even though he's a project, he actually has more experience at the position than most other players would coming in. It won't be a Tank Carradine transition. Tank was an edge rusher learning to player a completely different style. Armstead while he needs refinement, already knows the position. 2) Jaquiski Tartt: I have to admit, this one was a major WTF moment. Denzel Perryman was sitting there and I really thought he's be the pick...and they take a safety? Really? Now tho, while I still wish they'd found a way to take Perryman, I really like Tartt. As I stated above, it doesn't fill an immediate need, but I positional need aside, I really like the player. Bruiser who can run. Watching highlights I really like the way he closes on ball carriers. Seems to accelerate through the player. This went from being a major WTF to one of my favorite picks. 3) Eli Harold: Again...OLB? Seems they are stacked there. Another case of really liking the player, but not understanding immediately what they were doing. I think this was the pick where I was kinda starting to realize that they were looking at next years needs, not this years. Pretty obvious in retrospect. You can never have enough pass rushers. Seems a little light and skinny to me, but seems a great value in that spot. 4) Blake Bell: Reminds me a bit of Brent Jones and Gronk. No idea if he's close to the player eventually that either of those guys are, but that's really what my initial thoughts were after the pick. 5) Mike Davis: Shocker. Baalke took a RB. It's only 7 years in a row now that they've done so. :) Like the player. I like that he's a load and not a scat back. They have enough of that with Bush and Hunter. I like that they have 2 bruisers now. 6) DeAndre Smelter: Love this pick. They didn't need to look for a speed WR anymore. With Simpson and Smith on the roster, they need to be looking at a guy to take over for Anquan down the road. This guy is perfect. big, strong, compact, faster than you'd expect, and HUGE hands. Tremendous athlete. LOVE this pick. 7) Bradley Pinion: I must confess another major WTF moment when I saw this pick, but again...kinda makes sense. I've read peeps trippin' on Niners selecting a punter, but it seems people quickly forget that Andy Lee was a 6th round pick himself. He's also 32 and making 2.5 mil. The age for a punter not really an issue, but the money might be. That's a big savings AND he addresses two other issues....HUGE leg on kickoffs (which Dawson doesn't have anymore) and long FG attempts. Dude is a freakin' 6'5" and 230 lb monster of a punter. I'm not sure I want to see Lee go as I think he's the best in the league, but this pick isn't nearly as preposterous as some peeps let on. 8) Ian Silberman: Around this point of the draft I must confess to having no clue what to say. Clearly OG is a need moving forward with Iupati gone and Boone likely to follow. 9) Trenton Brown: See above....tho 6'8", 355!?! I mean seriously? If nothing else that size piques my curiosity. 10) Rory "Busta" Anderson: Must admit I knew very little about him prior to the draft, but I'm sitting there watching his ESPN highlights and then listening to Kiper and McShay talk about him and I'm thinkin, "huh? He looks pretty damn good for a 7th round pick". I'm sure there are some holes there and they mentioned him not really being a blocker and bad some bad drops...but couldn't we say the same about Delanie Walker coming in? Just sayin'.

May 4, 2015 at 12:05 PM

#31

9moon
Veteran
Posts: 22,149

I too was very excited about the future of Patton.. but stupid Baalke and coaching staff had to sign and use players like Lloyd... which really never helped the team..

While the Cardinals are using free agents, and rookie WRs in order have better speed and the advantage of not having too many film for the opposing teams to study, we (last year) continue to let our young players sit and learn from the sideline..

May 4, 2015 at 12:09 PM

#32

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by Marvin49:
OBTW....

Another thought I forgot to add...

The drafting of Tartt makes me wonder if Wards move to CB may be a permanent one...so add that to Johnson, Acker, and Reaser drafted last year.

Most likely, yes...another play maker in the middle of the field (i.e. "Strong down the middle of the field"). You nailed this draft plan very well.

Just look at the players we drafted. Most will be package players this year which is the perfect way to work rookies into starters for the NEXT year while still making us stronger THIS year:

DE Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
OLB Eli Harold for Ahmad Brooks
RB Mike Davis for whichever RB gets hurt this year (like every year)
WR DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
P/PK Bradley Pinion for Any Lee (hell, maybe Phil Dawson)
T Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
G Trenton Brown for Joe Looney
X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Boldin's backup

This isn't hard to see, right?

[ Edited by NCommand on May 4, 2015 at 12:10 PM ]

May 4, 2015 at 12:13 PM

#33

glorydayz
Veteran
Posts: 15,167

Originally posted by English:
Nice work Marv. But the disconnect between the team's regularly stated intention and the fans short term expectations may not be bridgeable right now.

This is true as I usually can't wait to see the rookies play in the preseason games. This year I am not to excited about watching these rookies suit up and may just skip the preseason all together.

Knowing that these guys will not be used this year makes this draft seem weak. These guys could turn out to be studs, but I find it hard to believe that these guys are going to come in and take a position;

Armstead over J. Smith, Dockett, Tank, Dial, TJE.
Tartt over Bethea, Ried
Harold over Aldon, Brooks, Lynch,
Bell over VD, McDonald, Celick (sp)
Davis over Hyde, Bush, Hunter.

You guys get the point. Maybe Baalke didn't see the need for impact players. I think we lost a few impact players that were not replaced in this years draft: Gore, Willis, Borland, Culliver, and Cox.

May 4, 2015 at 12:15 PM

#34

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Just a note on something you touched on with Tartt...I recall reading somewhere that they planned to stick with the same defense in terms of the front 7 but that they wanted to revamp the way the secondary played.

For what it's worth...

If you can link me to where you read that I'd like to read that. Mangini comes from the school of pattern matching so I'd be very surprised if he didn't continue what Fangio and Donatell had going.

thl, here is Baalke's presser: http://blogs.mercurynews.com/49ers/2015/05/01/gm-trent-baalke-we-wanted-to-stay-big-get-faster-and-guys-that-could-contribute-on-four-downs/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+49ersHotRead+%2849ers+Hot+Read%29

Here is a comment re: how he'd like to use Tartt:

How are Ward and Tartt's job descriptions different?

"That's up to the coaching staff. There are different things we can do schematically. Obviously with (Tartt's) size and speed, there's some things we can do with him in different packages that we couldn't do with Jimmie. But there's things we can do with Jimmie that we potentially couldn't do with Jaquiski. It's a good combination to have and we're high on both guys."

Can Tartt be a linebacker?

"No, he's not a linebacker. Could he be in some of the dime looks? Yes. But down in, down out, no, he's a safety."

Thanks NC. I'm surprised Baalke said that about Tartt being a dime LB. That means he's replacing Bow and that's a pretty bold statement. When an offense goes 4 WR, which is when a defense usually counters with their Dime package, there is still a RB on the field. This means Bow is still needed on the field. Also, it's not like Bow is a liability in pass coverage.

Personally I think Tartt replaced Wilhoite in the dime...then you have both Bowman and Tartt on the field as your ILB's (basically)...two enforces and both very good in coverage. He may be thinking Bowman to start the year until he feels he's 100% healthy and can get his lateral quickness back...but as Bowman gets healthier, the more and more he'll stay on the field and Wilhoite will give-way.

May 4, 2015 at 12:15 PM

#35

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
OBTW....

Another thought I forgot to add...

The drafting of Tartt makes me wonder if Wards move to CB may be a permanent one...so add that to Johnson, Acker, and Reaser drafted last year.

Most likely, yes...another play maker in the middle of the field (i.e. "Strong down the middle of the field"). You nailed this draft plan very well.

Just look at the players we drafted. Most will be package players this year which is the perfect way to work rookies into starters for the NEXT year while still making us stronger THIS year:

DE Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
OLB Eli Harold for Ahmad Brooks
RB Mike Davis for whichever RB gets hurt this year (like every year)
WR DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
P/PK Bradley Pinion for Any Lee (hell, maybe Phil Dawson)
T Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
G Trenton Brown for Joe Looney
X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Boldin's backup

This isn't hard to see, right?

This is assuming each and every one of the players that were drafted to replace starters down the line will pan out to be solid pros. Which is pretty obviously very rarely the case.

May 4, 2015 at 12:16 PM

#36

NYniner85
Veteran
Posts: 118,883

Originally posted by 9moon:
I too was very excited about the future of Patton.. but stupid Baalke and coaching staff had to sign and use players like Lloyd... which really never helped the team..

While the Cardinals are using free agents, and rookie WRs in order have better speed and the advantage of not having too many film for the opposing teams to study, we (last year) continue to let our young players sit and learn from the sideline..

I agree that older WR vets haven't helped our younger WRs that's for sure...I think Baalke was in full SB mode when they were bringing in Moss,Edwards,Lloyd,SJ, Boldin etc...I think we will be seeing what Patton/Ellington and the 2015 UDFA class have.

I'm pumped with the Smelter pick though....if he comes back 100% he has all the measurables you want in a WR, perfect fit for SF IMO.

May 4, 2015 at 12:19 PM

#37

Jesu80ncleats
Veteran
Posts: 2,527

Another nice job putting things into perspective

I found myself not very excited for this draft but after watching and reading about alot of these players picked im really starting to warm up to a lot of them. Really love the Eli pick, Lynch, Aldon, Harold and Brooks rotating

the season cant get here soon enough lol

May 4, 2015 at 12:24 PM

#38

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
OBTW....

Another thought I forgot to add...

The drafting of Tartt makes me wonder if Wards move to CB may be a permanent one...so add that to Johnson, Acker, and Reaser drafted last year.

Most likely, yes...another play maker in the middle of the field (i.e. "Strong down the middle of the field"). You nailed this draft plan very well.

Just look at the players we drafted. Most will be package players this year which is the perfect way to work rookies into starters for the NEXT year while still making us stronger THIS year:

DE Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
OLB Eli Harold for Ahmad Brooks
RB Mike Davis for whichever RB gets hurt this year (like every year)
WR DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
P/PK Bradley Pinion for Any Lee (hell, maybe Phil Dawson)
T Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
G Trenton Brown for Joe Looney
X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Boldin's backup

This isn't hard to see, right?

This is assuming each and every one of the players that were drafted to replace starters down the line will pan out to be solid pros. Which is pretty obviously very rarely the case.

It's actually the BEST way to ensure success. Why? B/c they aren't being thrown in to the wolves. These players are young and need to develop slowly (diet, muscle, playbook, film work, refinement, technique, etc.) and properly behind quality coaching while being taken under wing by their very successful mentors.

May 4, 2015 at 12:27 PM

#39

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
OBTW....

Another thought I forgot to add...

The drafting of Tartt makes me wonder if Wards move to CB may be a permanent one...so add that to Johnson, Acker, and Reaser drafted last year.

Most likely, yes...another play maker in the middle of the field (i.e. "Strong down the middle of the field"). You nailed this draft plan very well.

Just look at the players we drafted. Most will be package players this year which is the perfect way to work rookies into starters for the NEXT year while still making us stronger THIS year:

DE Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
OLB Eli Harold for Ahmad Brooks
RB Mike Davis for whichever RB gets hurt this year (like every year)
WR DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
P/PK Bradley Pinion for Any Lee (hell, maybe Phil Dawson)
T Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
G Trenton Brown for Joe Looney
X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Boldin's backup

This isn't hard to see, right?

This is assuming each and every one of the players that were drafted to replace starters down the line will pan out to be solid pros. Which is pretty obviously very rarely the case.

It's actually the BEST way to ensure success. Why? B/c they aren't being thrown in to the wolves. These players are young and need to develop slowly (diet, muscle, playbook, film work, refinement, technique, etc.) and properly behind quality coaching while being taken under wing by their very successful mentors.

You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

May 4, 2015 at 12:28 PM

#40

MRNINESEVEN
Veteran
Posts: 10,730

Originally posted by iLL49er:
andy lee is pretty useless if you ask me, he's fallen off the last couple of years. he RARELY directional puns and pins teams inside the 10yd line, everything is a freaking touchback. This pinion kid apparently specializes in pinning teams deep in their territory, that's a weapon...something lee isn't anymore

agreed. he's not all that anymore. Andy that is

May 4, 2015 at 12:30 PM

#41

crake49
Veteran
Posts: 13,201

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

May 4, 2015 at 12:37 PM

#42

itlynstalyn
Veteran
Posts: 38,533

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

I'm going off of what he said that all of these players are going to be replacements in the future via his examples above. Seems like this was a rehash of the plan in 2012 which clearly didn't work out:

WR AJ Jenkins for Randy Moss
RB LaMichael James for Frank Gore
C/OG Joe Looney for Jonathan Goodwin
OLB Darius Flemming for Ahmad Brooks
S Trenton Robinson for Dashon Goldson
T Jason Slowey for Mike Person
OLB Cam Johnson for Parys Haralson

Can't use an entire draft hoping half of the project players you draft pan out to be solid pros when there were guys on the board at the picks that could have made an impact this year.

May 4, 2015 at 12:38 PM

#43

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Jim Tomsula also gave us some great insight into how the draft process works...in that when Baalke was about to pick based on BPA/Team Need from his Board, he'd go out and talk to each position coach first and get a feel for whether or not they can coach that player up to their potential. So that mantra of "teachers" really was exercised for these picks and the following coaches are going to have fun molding and developing the aforementioned players and it will be up to Mangini and Geep to use them properly:

Jason Tarver - Linebackers Coach/Sr. Defensive Assistant (OLB Eli Harold)
Clancy Pendegrast - Inside Linebackers Coach (SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt)
Tim Lewis - Secondary Coach (SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt)
Ejiro Evero - Assistant Secondary Coach/Defensive Assistant
Scott Brown - Defensive Line Coach DE (Arik Armstead)
Aubrayo Franklin - Defensive Assistant/Entry Level

Steve Logan - Quarterbacks Coach (TE Blake Bell)
Tom Rathman - Running Backs Coach (RB Mike Davis)
Chris Foerster - Offensive Line Coach (T Ian Silberman & G Trenton Brown)
Eric Wolford - Offensive Line Assistant
Tony Sparano - Tight Ends Coach (TE Blake Bell)(X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson)
Ronald Curry - Wide Receivers Coach/Offensive Assistant
Adam Henry - Wide Receivers Coach (WR DeAndre Smelter)(X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson)

Thomas McGaughey - Special Teams Coordinator (DE Arik Armstead)(SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt)(OLB Eli Harold)(TE Blake Bell)(RB Mike Davis)(WR DeAndre Smelter)(X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson)
Richard Hightower - Special Teams Assistant (P/PK Bradley Pinion)

And don't forget about the other 8 UDFA's including 5 WR's (all three positions)

May 4, 2015 at 12:43 PM

#44

verb1der
Member
Posts: 15,613

Well of course these coaches are going to tell their boss that they can "coach these picks"!!! Hahahaha NC are you seriously buying that?! Don't do it.

[ Edited by verb1der on May 4, 2015 at 12:44 PM ]

May 4, 2015 at 12:43 PM

#45

crake49
Veteran
Posts: 13,201

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:

Originally posted by crake49:

Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

I'm going off of what he said that all of these players are going to be replacements in the future via his examples above. Seems like this was a rehash of the plan in 2012 which clearly didn't work out:

WR AJ Jenkins for Randy Moss
RB LaMichael James for Frank Gore
C/OG Joe Looney for Jonathan Goodwin
OLB Darius Flemming for Ahmad Brooks
S Trenton Robinson for Dashon Goldson
T Jason Slowey for Mike Person
OLB Cam Johnson for Parys Haralson

Can't use an entire draft hoping half of the project players you draft pan out to be solid pros when there were guys on the board at the picks that could have made an impact this year.

Most players DON'T pan out and it's that way on every NFL team. BTW, LMJ was NEVER thought to be even close to a replacement for Frank Gore.