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Offseason Post: Thoughts on the Draft...

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Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

I never said 100% of them would pan out. I will say that you have a much higher probability that they could pan out given how they will be developed (i.e. package-players transitioning into FT starters).

2012 was a flop from the start. No doubt. Now, how many from 2010, 2011, 2013 have panned out? You're about to see other ones pan out this year based on last year's draft and development. You'll see more next year based on this years picks. Other ways to develop players is through the PS (Boone), developing UDFA's (Williams), building up high draft pick players acquired via FA (Dorsey), through the I.R. pipeline (Carradine), etc.
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
OBTW....

Another thought I forgot to add...

The drafting of Tartt makes me wonder if Wards move to CB may be a permanent one...so add that to Johnson, Acker, and Reaser drafted last year.

Most likely, yes...another play maker in the middle of the field (i.e. "Strong down the middle of the field"). You nailed this draft plan very well.

Just look at the players we drafted. Most will be package players this year which is the perfect way to work rookies into starters for the NEXT year while still making us stronger THIS year:

DE Arik Armstead for Justin Smith
SS/ILB Jaquiski Tartt for Antoine Bethea
OLB Eli Harold for Ahmad Brooks
RB Mike Davis for whichever RB gets hurt this year (like every year)
WR DeAndre Smelter for Anquan Boldin
P/PK Bradley Pinion for Any Lee (hell, maybe Phil Dawson)
T Ian Silberman for Eric Pears
G Trenton Brown for Joe Looney
X WR Rory 'Busta' Anderson for Boldin's backup

This isn't hard to see, right?

This is assuming each and every one of the players that were drafted to replace starters down the line will pan out to be solid pros. Which is pretty obviously very rarely the case.

It's actually the BEST way to ensure success. Why? B/c they aren't being thrown in to the wolves. These players are young and need to develop slowly (diet, muscle, playbook, film work, refinement, technique, etc.) and properly behind quality coaching while being taken under wing by their very successful mentors.

You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

I don't think he's saying that. I just look at it as the 49ers are prepared in the event of _____. It could be anything. Retirement, injury, high salary cap number, or declining play are all reasons players have gotten replaced in the past. I am not going to say Tartt is taking over for Bethea just yet. Not even in 2016. But I do feel that should he develop properly, the 49ers will feel they will have some options going forward at safety. Two years may seem too long for many people, but if there isn't any noticeable drop off in Antoine Bethea's game, I don't mind it. All I want from the 2015 class at the moment is that they can fulfill whatever role that they have assigned to them and offer great special teams value so we don't have to go out and get special team's vets this year.

The pressure is more so on the 2013 and 2014 classes this year. We are going to find out if Tank Carradine can hold down a starting position. He already has the advantage. We are going to find out if McDonald can make a suitable TE. Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton will finally get some significant playing time. Quinton Dial will get to show if he has some starter ability or is a career backup. BTW, if Dial doesn't win the starting job, it doesn't mean he's a career backup. There's a difference between being beat out for a job because of better play by the other player as opposed to losing a job because of your own poor performance. If the latter takes place, then he's probably a career backup. Will Nick Moody show any growth as an ILB? And can Eric Reid have a healthy season? All of these are questions and that's just for the 2013 class, with the exception of Bruce Ellington.

The 2014 class in some respects has already outperformed the 2013 class if you don't count Eric Reid and I think when is all said and done, will really be the shining stars of this season. It's likely that there will be three starters from this group (Carlos Hyde, Dontae Johnson, and Brandon Thomas/Marcus Martin), so they already will have more opportunities. Then the guys likely to be backups (Aaron Lynch and the CBs) could push their competition. In my opinion if the 2013 and 2014 draft classes come through, everyone will have to get off of Baalke's back.
Originally posted by verb1der:
Well of course these coaches are going to tell their boss that they can "coach these picks"!!! Hahahaha NC are you seriously buying that?! Don't do it.

"What are they supposed to say? No? I don't like that pick and there is nothing I can do to make that pick work!"
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

I never said 100% of them would pan out. I will say that you have a much higher probability that they could pan out given how they will be developed (i.e. package-players transitioning into FT starters).

2012 was a flop from the start. No doubt. Now, how many from 2010, 2011, 2013 have panned out? You're about to see other ones pan out this year based on last year's draft and development. You'll see more next year based on this years picks. Other ways to develop players is through the PS (Boone), developing UDFA's (Williams), building up high draft pick players acquired via FA (Dorsey), through the I.R. pipeline (Carradine), etc.

From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by crake49:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

I'm going off of what he said that all of these players are going to be replacements in the future via his examples above. Seems like this was a rehash of the plan in 2012 which clearly didn't work out:

WR AJ Jenkins for Randy Moss
RB LaMichael James for Frank Gore
C/OG Joe Looney for Jonathan Goodwin
OLB Darius Flemming for Ahmad Brooks
S Trenton Robinson for Dashon Goldson
T Jason Slowey for Mike Person
OLB Cam Johnson for Parys Haralson


Can't use an entire draft hoping half of the project players you draft pan out to be solid pros when there were guys on the board at the picks that could have made an impact this year.

Yeah, way off on this one. For starters, AJ's skill set is NOTHING like Moss...quite the opposite actually and they play two different WR positions. James for Gore? Maybe James for Hunter, but not Gore. Looney is still here but I don't believe he was seen as the heir to Goodwin...Kilgore and M.Martin were though. So on, so forth.

Now let me ask you this...did the 2012 draft hurt our chances of getting to 3 straight NFCCG and from being an 8-win team last year? If not...why is that?
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

I never said 100% of them would pan out. I will say that you have a much higher probability that they could pan out given how they will be developed (i.e. package-players transitioning into FT starters).

2012 was a flop from the start. No doubt. Now, how many from 2010, 2011, 2013 have panned out? You're about to see other ones pan out this year based on last year's draft and development. You'll see more next year based on this years picks. Other ways to develop players is through the PS (Boone), developing UDFA's (Williams), building up high draft pick players acquired via FA (Dorsey), through the I.R. pipeline (Carradine), etc.

From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

I think you're missing the boat completely on not only what I'm saying but the premise of this thread.
Originally posted by iLL49er:
andy lee is pretty useless if you ask me, he's fallen off the last couple of years. he RARELY directional puns and pins teams inside the 10yd line, everything is a freaking touchback. This pinion kid apparently specializes in pinning teams deep in their territory, that's a weapon...something lee isn't anymore

Also, the coaches and Trent know a lot more about how each player is performing and health status.

maybe they see Andy slowing down and has hit his peak.

He could possibly be used for a trade??
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by verb1der:
Well of course these coaches are going to tell their boss that they can "coach these picks"!!! Hahahaha NC are you seriously buying that?! Don't do it.

"What are they supposed to say? No? I don't like that pick and there is nothing I can do to make that pick work!"

Exactly. Only a dummy would admit that to their boss.
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by qnnhan7:
Was this draft not so good at WR or have depth at the position? I notice WR needy teams like 49ers and the Chiefs that signed a FA receiver, didn't seemed to go after a WR beyond the 1st or 2nd round.


Very deep...but my guess is Niners knew whomever they selected wouldn't start (Boldin and Smith are your starters) and would compete in 3 or 4 WR sets with Simpson, Patton, and Ellington anyway.

I guess the way I see it is if there isn't a home run type guy sitting there at that pick (and my guess is they'd have taken Parker if he'd been there at 15), why just add a guy to a position where you have a 2 starters and some young guys who need a chance already.

Probably also had their eye on Smelter from the start.

Those 3rd or 4th round comp picks seems to be pigeon holed for Red Shirt players. Lattimore (4th), Thomas (3rd), and Smelter (4th) have all been the teams first comp pick.

In addition, IMO, it shows they have a lot of confidence in Patton and Ellington moving forward.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by crake49:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

Easy there. I don't see that assumption in NC's post. I see a legitimate appraisal of what the plan is, not an assumption that it will work out 100%.

I'm going off of what he said that all of these players are going to be replacements in the future via his examples above. Seems like this was a rehash of the plan in 2012 which clearly didn't work out:

WR AJ Jenkins for Randy Moss
RB LaMichael James for Frank Gore
C/OG Joe Looney for Jonathan Goodwin
OLB Darius Flemming for Ahmad Brooks
S Trenton Robinson for Dashon Goldson
T Jason Slowey for Mike Person
OLB Cam Johnson for Parys Haralson


Can't use an entire draft hoping half of the project players you draft pan out to be solid pros when there were guys on the board at the picks that could have made an impact this year.

Yeah, way off on this one. For starters, AJ's skill set is NOTHING like Moss...quite the opposite actually and they play two different WR positions. James for Gore? Maybe James for Hunter, but not Gore. Looney is still here but I don't believe he was seen as the heir to Goodwin...Kilgore and M.Martin were though. So on, so forth.

Now let me ask you this...did the 2012 draft hurt our chances of getting to 3 straight NFCCG and from being an 8-win team last year? If not...why is that?

No one is ever going to be Moss, but AJ was considered a deep threat with 4.2/4.3 speed when he was drafted. These examples are all the same as replacing older vets that are transitioning out of the system which was seemingly what Baalke was trying to do in 2012.

No, it didn't because the team had a lot of solid depth and talent those years. This year's team compared to 2012 and 2013's pales in comparison in that regard.
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.
  • SoCold
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Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by SoCold:
what if I told you that punter was the 11th ranked punter on cbs sports line dot com

what if I told you that OL was the 47 ranked OT on cbs sports line dot com

this draft doesn't make a lot of sense to me at all


I'd tell you it doesn't matter how CBS ranked them because they aren't scouts whose job it is to draft players for a living.

You are talking about a Tackle taken in 6th or 7th round. If they were taken in the 1st or second, I could see it.

Punter? So what? They liked THAT punter. We have no idea how the rest of the teams ranked him. Should also be noted that they KNEW they could get him a bit later so bounced down 15 picks or so, picked up a 7 and then parlayed a 7 into a 6 next year.

Ya know how every single year it looks like teams get steals in low rounds because guys are projected much higher? That because people take players projected lower BEFORE them.

Is the issue that the teams are stupid? Maybe, just maybe, its because teams rank players differently than media scout organizations.

Smelter had a draft projection of 7th or FA

per cbs rankings even if they are not pro scouts, they do get close on a lot of picks where they end up going

every pick was a reach except the 3rd round pick

I really wanted to see something like

Peters CB
Perryman ILB
with the first two picks then if Trent want's to draft 4 TE's after that fine put you need to land solid potential starters in the first couple of rounds
IMO
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
You're still making a gross assumption that 100% of these draft picks will in fact pan out. The 2012 draft is a good indication otherwise.

I never said 100% of them would pan out. I will say that you have a much higher probability that they could pan out given how they will be developed (i.e. package-players transitioning into FT starters).

2012 was a flop from the start. No doubt. Now, how many from 2010, 2011, 2013 have panned out? You're about to see other ones pan out this year based on last year's draft and development. You'll see more next year based on this years picks. Other ways to develop players is through the PS (Boone), developing UDFA's (Williams), building up high draft pick players acquired via FA (Dorsey), through the I.R. pipeline (Carradine), etc.

From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.


And one bad draft will forever be the only argument needed when someone wants crap on a draft pick until Baalke retires or is fired.
Originally posted by NCommand:
I think you're missing the boat completely on not only what I'm saying but the premise of this thread.

No, it's a comparison of drafting players that fit the holes and have a chance to start this year instead of hoping players that need development work out down the line when they're needed to replace aging/expensive vets. Doing either exclusively can blow up a draft, 2012 is a perfect example.
Originally posted by crake49:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
From your examples above to show that Baalke is preparing for the future it seems that's what you're expecting to happen. Seems like Baalke was doing the same thing in 2012 and it completely backfired. Fact of the matter remains, there were two relatively decent holes on defense (ILB, CB) that could have been filled with better players in the first few draft picks while still getting a backup DE with the same size/measurables as Armstead in the 3rd.

blah, blah, blah, 2012, blah, blah, blah, 2012....... 2012!!!!!!

Some fans sure do like to concentrate on one out of Baalke's many drafts as if it characterizes all of the drafts.

And some likely to blindly believe that our GM has never made a mistake and is above all criticism. To each their own.
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