Offseason Post: Thoughts on the Draft... | Page 29

Marvin49 · 2015-05-04T09:56:56-07:00

Seemed like it was time. :) BTW, adding my link again here to the ESPN and NFL Network coverage. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8CWK_cXUoNY Before I get into the players, some thoughts on the draft strategy in general: So much has been made of the Niners not addressing their "needs". They lost a bunch of players and they needed immediate starters, right? Well I think it's pretty obvious that the perceived needs of the team differed greatly between the media and fans and the team itself. I mean, "OMG, they lost BOTH starting corners, they lost 2 LBs, Frank Gore, Justin Smith might retire and Iupati and Crabtree left as FAs!! The world is ending and the Niners need to draft and hit on every pick at those positions where they lost players!!!". Right? Wrong. That popular viewpoint that is earning the Niners horrible draft grades all over the country is based on a fallacy. Its based on the impression that the Niners desperately needed to find replacements for all of those lost free agents. The truth? In many cases, they already had. They are untested for sure and time will tell if they are adequate replacements, but outside of Borland, they didn't lose a single player they didn't EXPECT to lose this year or in the near future. Willis was something of a surprise, but they knew it was coming at some point and was a big reason they selected Borland in the first place. Lost Gore? Already drafted Hyde and Hunter. Lost Iupati? Already drafted Martin and Thomas. Lost Crabtree? Already drafted Patton and Ellington AND signed Torrey Smith. Lost BOTH starting Corners (not really true to begin with...Brock was a starter)? Drafted Dontae Johnson, Kenneth Acker, and Keith Reaser last year. All the complaining about Niners not taking immediate day 1 starters? Well, you are about to see why. They selected the above players KNOWING what was coming down the line. Would drafting a bunch of players at those positions with no guarantee that they are any better than the guys they took the last two years be the smart move what they have a whole NEW lost of players whom they may lose NEXT year. Tell me if these positions sound familiar... DE: Justin Smith retiring, Ray McDonald released. SS: Antoine Bethea is 30. OLB: Ahmad Brooks likely short for the Team. TE: Vernon Davis likely in his final year WR (and more specifically, big, strong, possession WR): Anquan Boldin possibly in final year OG: Alex Boone in final year of contract. Now look at those needs next year and compare them to the players they selected. Do ya see it? What I'm saying here is that the 49ers ARE drafting for positions of need. NEXT years need. That may drive some of you crazy, but you are failing to realize they've been doing this for a few years now and they ALREADY HAVE players they like who they drafted to fill the positions they EXPECTED to need help with this year. While people are all up in arms over drafting for future need, it IS the future now for those picks from years past. The frustration over this to me is just really short sighted and misses the entire point of their draft strategy from the beginning. Are the players they selected last year for this years need and this year for next years need adequate replacements? Well that's an entirely different conversation, but does taking a CB in the 4th round address a need when they already took 3 guys last year that they like? Is adding a FOURTH guy to that mix smarter than addressing needs down the road? One more thing. "Projects". I keep reading criticism of Niners taking projects. Well, 1) ALL college players are projects, 2) Just because a player is considered a project doesn't mean that he should not be taken fairly high if his ceiling is off the charts, 3) I'm reminded of a line from York about the coaches he wanted. "Teachers". That really stuck in my mind when Tomsula was hired along with his staff and they selected player after player with huge potential but with work to do. On to the picks themselves... 1) Arik Armstead: "Project". Off the charts athleticism. I have to admit to not being stoked about the pick. I knew it was a very real possibility in the weeks leading up to the draft but I fell into the "I want a sexy pick" trap at 15. Truth be told, some of Niners best picks in round 1 have NOT been "sexy" picks. When they focus on the big guys up front, good things tend to happen. Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati...all interior players drafting in first round. Staley was also a big project pick BTW. Peeps keep citing Kentwan Balmer. I think that's ludicrous. That's like saying Megatron was a bad pick because Detroit selected Mike Williams a previous year. Different players. Kid has off the charts tools and even though he's a project, he actually has more experience at the position than most other players would coming in. It won't be a Tank Carradine transition. Tank was an edge rusher learning to player a completely different style. Armstead while he needs refinement, already knows the position. 2) Jaquiski Tartt: I have to admit, this one was a major WTF moment. Denzel Perryman was sitting there and I really thought he's be the pick...and they take a safety? Really? Now tho, while I still wish they'd found a way to take Perryman, I really like Tartt. As I stated above, it doesn't fill an immediate need, but I positional need aside, I really like the player. Bruiser who can run. Watching highlights I really like the way he closes on ball carriers. Seems to accelerate through the player. This went from being a major WTF to one of my favorite picks. 3) Eli Harold: Again...OLB? Seems they are stacked there. Another case of really liking the player, but not understanding immediately what they were doing. I think this was the pick where I was kinda starting to realize that they were looking at next years needs, not this years. Pretty obvious in retrospect. You can never have enough pass rushers. Seems a little light and skinny to me, but seems a great value in that spot. 4) Blake Bell: Reminds me a bit of Brent Jones and Gronk. No idea if he's close to the player eventually that either of those guys are, but that's really what my initial thoughts were after the pick. 5) Mike Davis: Shocker. Baalke took a RB. It's only 7 years in a row now that they've done so. :) Like the player. I like that he's a load and not a scat back. They have enough of that with Bush and Hunter. I like that they have 2 bruisers now. 6) DeAndre Smelter: Love this pick. They didn't need to look for a speed WR anymore. With Simpson and Smith on the roster, they need to be looking at a guy to take over for Anquan down the road. This guy is perfect. big, strong, compact, faster than you'd expect, and HUGE hands. Tremendous athlete. LOVE this pick. 7) Bradley Pinion: I must confess another major WTF moment when I saw this pick, but again...kinda makes sense. I've read peeps trippin' on Niners selecting a punter, but it seems people quickly forget that Andy Lee was a 6th round pick himself. He's also 32 and making 2.5 mil. The age for a punter not really an issue, but the money might be. That's a big savings AND he addresses two other issues....HUGE leg on kickoffs (which Dawson doesn't have anymore) and long FG attempts. Dude is a freakin' 6'5" and 230 lb monster of a punter. I'm not sure I want to see Lee go as I think he's the best in the league, but this pick isn't nearly as preposterous as some peeps let on. 8) Ian Silberman: Around this point of the draft I must confess to having no clue what to say. Clearly OG is a need moving forward with Iupati gone and Boone likely to follow. 9) Trenton Brown: See above....tho 6'8", 355!?! I mean seriously? If nothing else that size piques my curiosity. 10) Rory "Busta" Anderson: Must admit I knew very little about him prior to the draft, but I'm sitting there watching his ESPN highlights and then listening to Kiper and McShay talk about him and I'm thinkin, "huh? He looks pretty damn good for a 7th round pick". I'm sure there are some holes there and they mentioned him not really being a blocker and bad some bad drops...but couldn't we say the same about Delanie Walker coming in? Just sayin'.

May 15, 2015 at 1:33 AM

#421

elguapo
Veteran
Posts: 26,383

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by itlynstalyn:
This dude we drafted in the third round last year at ILB seemed to do pretty well for us if I remember correctly.

By midyear he did well but he wasn't starting over Wilhoite, but because both Willis and Bowman were injured. As good as he was he had difficulty with some assignments, getting lost at times. And even with this he was an exceptional rookie ILB. But I absolutely never use absolutes!

Regardless, Borland had he HIGHEST PFF grade of any rookie ilb since Willis and that is sick, considering all the good rookie ilbs that have come in since willis. We had yet another pro bowler and probably all pro. Talk about great drafting.
Willis
Bowman
Aldon smith
Borland

And lynch is very good

No other team is close. Balt is pretty good and Pitt to a lesser degree but dam are we spoiled. Wilhoite is a solid to good starter on most every team so if that's our weak link at kb we are good.

May 15, 2015 at 6:23 AM

#422

matt49er
Veteran
Posts: 7,459

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Just a note on something you touched on with Tartt...I recall reading somewhere that they planned to stick with the same defense in terms of the front 7 but that they wanted to revamp the way the secondary played.

For what it's worth...

Yeah, if Ward is a "starter" on the field 60% of the time in the slot according to Fangio, wouldn't Tartt be on the same amount swapping out Wilhoite or Bowman for better coverage?

This is exactly my thoughts, I touched on this in the nickle LB thread but I think it's worth repeating here;

It's been frustrating to me reading all the hate the Tartt pick from media and fans, especially when people say that him and Ward are competing for the same spot. I view them both as nickle guys right now but in completely different roles. Ward is a nickle CB and backup FS, Tartt is a nickle S/LB hybrid who will backup Bethea at SS. I truly believe the 49ers drafted Tartt to be the future starting SS and a guy who right away can be a big part of ST's and come in on nickle packages, play close to the LOS and help out covering big TE's and supporting the run.

May 15, 2015 at 6:36 AM

#423

Big_Daddy
Veteran
Posts: 1,808

Originally posted by matt49er:
This is exactly my thoughts, I touched on this in the nickle LB thread but I think it's worth repeating here;

It's been frustrating to me reading all the hate the Tartt pick from media and fans, especially when people say that him and Ward are competing for the same spot. I view them both as nickle guys right now but in completely different roles. Ward is a nickle CB and backup FS, Tartt is a nickle S/LB hybrid who will backup Bethea at SS. I truly believe the 49ers drafted Tartt to be the future starting SS and a guy who right away can be a big part of ST's and come in on nickle packages, play close to the LOS and help out covering big TE's and supporting the run.

If Tartt was in there, it wouldnt be nickel, it would be dime. And he's not a LB by any means, as Baalke has said.

May 15, 2015 at 7:12 AM

#424

dtg_9er
Veteran
Posts: 33,204

Originally posted by elguapo:
Regardless, Borland had he HIGHEST PFF grade of any rookie ilb since Willis and that is sick, considering all the good rookie ilbs that have come in since willis. We had yet another pro bowler and probably all pro. Talk about great drafting.
Willis
Bowman
Aldon smith
Borland

And lynch is very good

No other team is close. Balt is pretty good and Pitt to a lesser degree but dam are we spoiled. Wilhoite is a solid to good starter on most every team so if that's our weak link at kb we are good.

This is why I trust Baalke when he decides not to take an ILB in the draft. If there had been a Willis among them, or even an upgrade to Wilhoite, he would have taken him. Will they sign another FA? Maybe, but I'll bet they are somewhat comfortable with the guys they have or they would have reached in the draft.

The niners took Hyde, Borland and M Martin...all thought by many to be the top guys at their positions.

May 15, 2015 at 9:03 AM

#425

Luckycharms
Veteran
Posts: 950

I think special teams played a big part in this draft and Baalke even said so himself in wanting 4 down players. I think Baalke was tired of using up valuable roster spots on players that just played ST (osgood, ventrone, spillman, etc). Most all of our draft picks can play ST's this year and play them well and it looks like we only have 1 player who will be ST specific with Bellore.

Also a quick note to everyone hating on the 5th round punter pick. Pinion came out and entered the draft as a junior. They have a draft advisory board that players can use to gauge how they are viewed by scouts and coaches to get a rough estimate of where they would be drafted if they were to enter the draft. Now, to all the arm chair GM's who listen to mock drafts etc that say Pinion was the 14th rated punter, do you think he would leave school early if he was told that he was not well thought of as a prospect? Clearly he left school early for a reason and clearly he was seen as a TOP kicking prospect. We know Baalke loves versatility and he picked up his #1 rated punter who can not only punt but is also a kick off specialist and can be used for 60 yard fg's. It's not a sexy pick but grabbing your guy who can help dominate when it comes to field position and who is capable of hitting 65 yard fg's for the next 10+ years is huge. I'd use a 5th rounder on that all day. That's plays right into our philosophy. Make the other team try to go 80 yards on our defense and we run the ball and dominate time of possession and field position. This kid seems like he can do everything Andy lee can and more for a forth of the cost.

May 15, 2015 at 9:06 AM

#426

TheXFactor
Veteran
Posts: 25,990

Originally posted by Luckycharms:
I think special teams played a big part in this draft and Baalke even said so himself in wanting 4 down players. I think Baalke was tired of using up valuable roster spots on players that just played ST (osgood, ventrone, spillman, etc). Most all of our draft picks can play ST's this year and play them well and it looks like we only have 1 player who will be ST specific with Bellore.

Also a quick note to everyone hating on the 5th round punter pick. Pinion came out and entered the draft as a junior. They have a draft advisory board that players can use to gauge how they are viewed by scouts and coaches to get a rough estimate of where they would be drafted if they were to enter the draft. Now, to all the arm chair GM's who listen to mock drafts etc that say Pinion was the 14th rated punter, do you think he would leave school early if he was told that he was not well thought of as a prospect? Clearly he left school early for a reason and clearly he was seen as a TOP kicking prospect. We know Baalke loves versatility and he picked up his #1 rated punter who can not only punt but is also a kick off specialist and can be used for 60 yard fg's. It's not a sexy pick but grabbing your guy who can help dominate when it comes to field position and who is capable of hitting 65 yard fg's for the next 10+ years is huge. I'd use a 5th rounder on that all day. That's plays right into our philosophy. Make the other team try to go 80 yards on our defense and we run the ball and dominate time of possession and field position. This kid seems like he can do everything Andy lee can and more for a forth of the cost.

This x100, game. set. match.