Why Michael Crabtree Has Made Alex Smith's Resurrection Possible

Ghost,your absolutely right,the NFL is a business.So, if you had a HUGE investment in a business venture that was misused, abused, no one followed the owners manual that came with it, and the supporting equipment was never acquired would you eat that loss without first trying to readjust the mishandling of the investment. In addition if you trash the whole thing you have to reinvest at as high or higher cost. So the prudent approach is to improve the surrounding circumstances so you get an accurate read.

Originally posted by cupcheck:
Ghost,your absolutely right,the NFL is a business.So, if you had a HUGE investment in a business venture that was misused, abused, no one followed the owners manual that came with it, and the supporting equipment was never acquired would you eat that loss without first trying to readjust the mishandling of the investment. In addition if you trash the whole thing you have to reinvest at as high or higher cost. So the prudent approach is to improve the surrounding circumstances so you get an accurate read.

Improving the surrounding circumstances to get an accurate read is one way to go about it, and apparently the way this team is going to go about it. However, as a businessman, I have to decide whether or not my original investment was ever a good one to begin with. Sometimes, we want our investments to pay off so badly that we'll keep sinking time and money into them, hoping that changing circumstances will yield the desired results.

Sometimes it does, and as many in business discover, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes, that asset that you bought at such a premium, will never pay you back. It simply didn't have the value you thought it had, or maybe it had some potential at one point, but circumstances have limited its ability to provide you with the kind of return you had hoped/paid for.

So you have to make a decision...keep sinking time and money into that thing, or shift your time/money into something that, though still somewhat risky, has paid off nicely in the past and appears to still have some ROI left in it.

IMO, the less riskier move is to trade for a proven commodity like McNabb, rather than to keep throwing time/cash into Smith. If, however, McNabb isn't available, we don't have a choice but to keep sinking time/money into Smith.

Just my take.

[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Feb 23, 2010 at 16:17:51 ]

mcnabb for a first round pick? hook me up with what you been smoking.

Originally posted by DertyDonahue:
mcnabb for a first round pick? hook me up with what you been smoking.

Look at the history of mid-1st round picks for say the last 20 years, especially 16/17th pick and tell me how many of those guys are worth anything...especially in comparison to a legit starting QB with playoff and Super Bowl experience.

You'll find that teams have to get REAL lucky to find a player that actually makes an impact. There's two players in the last 20 years picked at 16/17th overall that I'd take over McNabb...Steve Hutchinson in 2001 and Emmitt Smith in 1990.

That's it.

The rest are guys like Justin Harrell, Jarvis Moss, Chad Greenway, Bobby Carpenter, Derrick Johnson, Travis Johnson, Calvin Pace, Bryant Johnson, William Greene, Phillip Buchanon, Sebastien Janikowski, Kenard Lang, Tom Carter, Dan McGwire, Bobby Wilson, Chester McGlockton, Ernest Dye, Tyrone Wheatley, etc., etc., etc. Guys that teams had HOPED would be good, but ended up doing s**t.

There's a few decent guys (Kevin Smith, Santana Moss, DJ Williams, Will Smith, etc.)...some nice players, but I wouldn't take those guys over McNabb as none of those guys would provide my team with the same impact.

So tell me, what have YOU been smoking that you can't even do a few minutes of online research to realize that those mid-round picks are a HUGE crapshoot? The chances are SLIM and the odds are not in our favor that our mid-1st rounder is going to turn into something...you need to wake up and realize this.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by DertyDonahue:
mcnabb for a first round pick? hook me up with what you been smoking.

Look at the history of mid-1st round picks for say the last 20 years, especially 16/17th pick and tell me how many of those guys are worth anything...especially in comparison to a legit starting QB with playoff and Super Bowl experience.

You'll find that teams have to get REAL lucky to find a player that actually makes an impact. There's two players in the last 20 years picked at 16/17th overall that I'd take over McNabb...Steve Hutchinson in 2001 and Emmitt Smith in 1990.

That's it.

The rest are guys like Justin Harrell, Jarvis Moss, Chad Greenway, Bobby Carpenter, Derrick Johnson, Travis Johnson, Calvin Pace, Bryant Johnson, William Greene, Phillip Buchanon, Sebastien Janikowski, Kenard Lang, Tom Carter, Dan McGwire, Bobby Wilson, Chester McGlockton, Ernest Dye, Tyrone Wheatley, etc., etc., etc. Guys that teams had HOPED would be good, but ended up doing s**t.

There's a few decent guys (Kevin Smith, Santana Moss, DJ Williams, Will Smith, etc.)...some nice players, but I wouldn't take those guys over McNabb as none of those guys would provide my team with the same impact.

So tell me, what have YOU been smoking that you can't even do a few minutes of online research to realize that those mid-round picks are a HUGE crapshoot? The chances are SLIM and the odds are not in our favor that our mid-1st rounder is going to turn into something...you need to wake up and realize this.

STOP MAKING SENSE?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

- 98

^^ Sorry kid.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by cupcheck:
Ghost,your absolutely right,the NFL is a business.So, if you had a HUGE investment in a business venture that was misused, abused, no one followed the owners manual that came with it, and the supporting equipment was never acquired would you eat that loss without first trying to readjust the mishandling of the investment. In addition if you trash the whole thing you have to reinvest at as high or higher cost. So the prudent approach is to improve the surrounding circumstances so you get an accurate read.

Improving the surrounding circumstances to get an accurate read is one way to go about it, and apparently the way this team is going to go about it. However, as a businessman, I have to decide whether or not my original investment was ever a good one to begin with. Sometimes, we want our investments to pay off so badly that we'll keep sinking time and money into them, hoping that changing circumstances will yield the desired results.

Sometimes it does, and as many in business discover, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes, that asset that you bought at such a premium, will never pay you back. It simply didn't have the value you thought it had, or maybe it had some potential at one point, but circumstances have limited its ability to provide you with the kind of return you had hoped/paid for.

So you have to make a decision...keep sinking time and money into that thing, or shift your time/money into something that, though still somewhat risky, has paid off nicely in the past and appears to still have some ROI left in it.

IMO, the less riskier move is to trade for a proven commodity like McNabb, rather than to keep throwing time/cash into Smith. If, however, McNabb isn't available, we don't have a choice but to keep sinking time/money into Smith.

Just my take.

I agree with you. The issues with comparing how 49ers fans felt about Young early in his career is that we were spoiled. If you look at most fans opinion now its that Young is a top 10 QB of all time. He only won one SB with a great supporting cast.

On your point about being a business and knowing when to let an investment go. I think two points should be made:

1. Smith did redo his deal
2. Smith was mishandled from the start and has not been in the right environment to reach his potential

With that said I agree if a possible alternative where to come to play: IE Mcnabb The niners should pull the trigger, but if not, I feel Smith deserves one more year to show why he was the #1 pick. You stated this at the end and I feel that is what will happen. So for me I will continue to support Smith until another option is truly there.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

3 years.... for those of you who can't count.... Smith has NOT played 5 years!
I'm not saying I'm on his bandwagon, but cmon. Lets keep facts straight ok?

Smith has started 40 games, played in 43. That's not even 3 full seasons combined.

[ Edited by Oregon49erfan on Feb 23, 2010 at 18:12:08 ]

Originally posted by Oregon49erfan:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

3 years.... for those of you who can't count.... Smith has NOT played 5 years!
I'm not saying I'm on his bandwagon, but cmon. Lets keep facts straight ok?

No.

This is Niner Talk. Facts have to be crooked in here.

[ Edited by AXEGRINDER on Feb 23, 2010 at 18:56:20 ]

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:

Originally posted by oldninerdude:

Can you see the Niners drafting a QB somewhere in the 4th or 5th rounds? Cause the cupboard is really pretty bare. A. Smith, N. Davis and hope . . . .

Wouldn't it be nice to have another young guy with potential and a strong arm learning the ropes and working with the coaching staff and receivers.

If there was someone worth drafting at that stage, they might take a chance. But if we don't make a move for a veteran, I think the game plan will be to ride Smith for all he's worth this year, then start from scratch next year if he doesn't pan out.

The x-factor will be Davis...in other words, if Smith falters and the season is lost, they'll put Davis in to see what he can do. If he shows well enough, they might go into 2011 with him as the starter, but they'll likely still bring in more QB talent regardless of what Davis does.

Presuming that they cannot get a first tier veteran via trade or FA, it just seems to me to make alot of sense to try to grab yet another project QB now, so that a year or two down the road the team is not in the same position it is now--with so much dependent on just one guy--A. Smith.

I haven't given up on A. Smith, and I'm more than willing to root for the guy as the starter. But part of it is, as you say, resignation. I don't expect him to be another Rothlisberger, or Ryan, or Flacco.

So a long term plan is needed--add another project QB in the mid to later rounds, so this time next year, the team is better positioned to move on if necessary.

And, obviously, if the opportunity presents, a really good vet QB would be worth a trade right now. IMHO.

Smith had a better statistical year than Ryan. Notice the emphasis on statistical

soo............. is crabtree gonna make alex look like a better qb?

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

THIS. BIG TIME. We all want Smith to succeed, but god if Ryan Leaf was given a chance maybe he could have turned into an NFL journeyman too.

Originally posted by PA9erFaithful:

Originally posted by WestCoast:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

if that were the case then he wouldn't have taken a pay cut, benched to start the season, and there would be no rumors about getting Vick or McNabb....

but i guess you hear what u want to

I think he was talking about being treated that way by some fans.

I still don't see what's so hard to accept about this season being make or break for Alex. He's got a year left on his contract. He steps it up this season or he's gone, simple as that. He hasn't gotten nearly as many "chances" as Ghost or anyone else would have you believe.

this

Originally posted by AXEGRINDER:

Originally posted by Oregon49erfan:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

3 years.... for those of you who can't count.... Smith has NOT played 5 years!
I'm not saying I'm on his bandwagon, but cmon. Lets keep facts straight ok?

No.

This is Niner Talk. Facts have to be crooked in here.

If he was a 5th round pick he would've been gone by now. Injuries to unproven players get them cut. And he is still unproven. The ONLY reason he's still here is because he was the no. 1 pick.

Injured or not, this year has to be his last chance . . . No more "potential," he's gonna have the same OC so no more excuses, win in SF in the 2010-2011 season or leave, it really is that simple.

The definition of insanity is repeating the same action multiple times and expecting a different result. So far the result has been the same, no playoffs. The variables have changed since 2005, in Smith's favor nonetheless. I'll give him one more chance to prove we aren't insane for giving it to him.

Originally posted by Oregon49erfan:

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
I'm sorry, I just don't understand the fascination with Alex Smith. I can't ever recall a player that so many people have given so many chances to like they have with Smith. I mean, Steve Young was winning passing titles and MVPs, but because it took him forever to win one ring, he was crucified here.

Smith wins 16 games in 5 years and he's treated like a child prodigy. Man, I just don't get it.

3 years.... for those of you who can't count.... Smith has NOT played 5 years!
I'm not saying I'm on his bandwagon, but cmon. Lets keep facts straight ok?

Smith has started 40 games, played in 43. That's not even 3 full seasons combined.

I didn't say he "played" 5 years...I said 16 wins in 5 years. That's accurate. You may not believe this, but the season still continues whether or not a guy gets hurt, so you don't have the luxury of just saying "oh, well he's really only played in 3 full seasons."

The point is, in 5 NFL seasons, due to a bad supporting cast, changing OCs/systems, his own failures, inabilities and injuries, Smith has produced 16 wins. That is a fact that can't be disputed in any way. Yes, you can provide context and that's perfectly fine. But it is not in dispute that during the last 5 seasons, he's lead our team to exactly 16 wins.

IMO, that's not acceptable regardless of the reasons or who is to blame. 5 seasons have come and gone, and this guy has been at the helm of 16 victories during that time. Call me crazy, but I see no reason to support someone or believe in someone that has delivered to my team, so little.

[ Edited by GhostofFredDean74 on Feb 23, 2010 at 22:56:54 ]