Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

As long as Lance isn't bad in the training camp and preseason I believe he'll be the week 1 starter. I believe that not because of the passing game but because of the running game.

The team added Mack, drafted 2 offensive linemen, and drafted 2 RBs with one being a 3rd rounder while already having a stable of backs. It's clear they want to run the ball like 2019 and they loaded up to make sure they could.

Lance simply adds potency to the running game. He can run it and Kyle will likely run him just enough that defenses have no choice but to respect it.

The other aspect is Lance is just a much bigger threat with the deep ball compared to Jimmy. We can split hairs over accuracy but I don't think anyone would debate that Lance has the stronger arm and is more willing to throw it deep compared to Jimmy.

So if you combine Lance's ability to run the ball and potentially hit the deep ball it becomes a nightmare scenario for defenses which gives more opportunities for the running game to flourish.

One other thing is sorta tied to the running game but one of the strongest aspects of Lance's game should be play action which if the running game is going should be effective.

I just think for 2021 that Shanahan will be happy if Lance is just functional as a passer. Obviously Shanahan expects Lance to grow into a great passer but for this upcoming season I think Kyle will take the benefits Lance would bring to the running game and be happy if Lance makes a handful of big plays with his arms and legs a game while keeping the turnovers to a minimum.

Because regardless of whose starting at QB it's clear the plan is to have the running game and defense do the heavy lifting and I believe they are fully prepared for either Jimmy G or Lance to start.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
one winning year in 7 years, but you are trying to make it a quick 8.. not sure what 7, 6 etc years ago has to do with this team or regime today

Smith can't run an offense, Fitz.. can't even call a team his home. Goff .. Dalton.. really. If they could really be system QBs they wouldn't be where they are now

Jimmy actually won before the 49ers since you forgot and has won with the 49ers. Giving us our only winning season in 7 years remember.

This whole Kyle chose Lance thing you got is Woo'ish.. But i think Kyle wouldn't choose anyone who he thought couldn't play

Tutelage is dumb?, but you think that same tutelage that he has been doing since may is great and good enough to start... but if he had more time with the staff he will get worse. not sure how that adds up.

Jimmy plays until he can't play anymore. ease in Lance. Simple

So you automatically assume we will have a losing season with Lance? That's a bit much imo. Outside of not having live reps, running this exact scheme, there isn't a throw or play that Jimmy can do that Lance can't do.

fine I'll leave out the past regime, under kyle one winning season.

im sorry why can't Alex run a NFL offense lol? Dude has over 100 career wins and played in the league for 14yrs. IF fitz was incapable of running a NFL offense he wouldn't be in his 16th yr in the league.

Dalton has won plenty of games in his career, same with Goff. They're system QBs, issue is their past team wanted more…it's not like they didn't get paid a f**k ton of cash at one point. They can run a NFL offense and do what you ask, if pressure or play making is needed outside of that then they're f**ked. It's the same with Jimmy.

OH right right right Jimmy won what? one and a half games before coming here? Please. Stop it. He got thrown out there mid 2017 with less than 100 career passing attempts in 3 yrs, no clue how to run this offense, & played his best football.

where did I say he gets worse? Don't put words in my mouth…I'm saying you're exaggerating the development process during in a NFL season. You're acting like Lance has been sitting on his butt eating Cheetos since September. He's been doing more as far as development in a years worth of football, then what he would be doing on a bench during a season.

If sitting a 1st rd rookie lead to a higher success rate then every single team would do it. We all know that's simply not true.

If lance looks the part, he plays and really there's not much Jimmy can do about it….just like mike garofalo said.

"Hard to get better at football…by not playing football"

Originally posted by elguapo:
Come on man. You know our team is not a six win team why even say something like that? You know better than that. If our team was relatively healthy we would've won the division and had at least 11 wins. Beating the Cardinals with second and third stringers and taking Seattle at their home with back ups to the very last minute? We would've easily beat Dallas Philadelphia Washington Seattle and Arizona the first game if we had Brandon Aiyuk, Our Center, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle not gimpy for the second half. But then again this is common sense. It's five easy wins right there.

Whether we play Trey or Jimmy we still are going to be a playoff team unless we are among the most injured teams in the league yet again. That's why now we have great insurance in the form of 2 starting qbs. So if Jimmy is a backup or starter we are at least in a way better position than 3 of the last 4 years solely due to having the most important position covered so I wouldn't fault anyone for our losing record over 3 of the last 4 seasons. Unless you blame the football gods

There's a correlation between health and winning…if you're team is never healthy, then your team isn't very good end of the day.

if Tampa had a bunch of injuries they don't sniff the playoffs let alone win the Super Bowl…would we be saying they're one of the best teams in football? Probably not.

we can talk about how great our roster is on paper, dudes gotta play end of the day or it means nothing.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by frenchtoast:
You're right. Simple and not smart. Sit a kid Kittle refers to as a "freak" so we can watch a statue. NO THANKS. Lance is a savant who has already gained a solid grip on the entire playbook according to Kyle. Lance will start DAY 1. Anyone that thinks Kyle will resist that temptation is nuts.

lol, well there you have it. because Kittle says he's freak

Im not saying he needs to start day 1, but if he shows up in TC then you adjust that timeline…you ask Jimmy to take a pay cut knowing he's not gonna be the season long starter.

best way to get Lance better is by actually playing him…that is what is so simple about all this. I expect a change at some point this season .

I see the Jimmy G BS debate has spilled all over here to. Damn, why does it have to be on every f**king thread? TC/Preseason/Season needs to hurry the f**k up already, the empire is turning against their own here..

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Dsoto87:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
one winning year in 7 years, but you are trying to make it a quick 8.. not sure what 7, 6 etc years ago has to do with this team or regime today

Smith can't run an offense, Fitz.. can't even call a team his home. Goff .. Dalton.. really. If they could really be system QBs they wouldn't be where they are now

Jimmy actually won before the 49ers since you forgot and has won with the 49ers. Giving us our only winning season in 7 years remember.

This whole Kyle chose Lance thing you got is Woo'ish.. But i think Kyle wouldn't choose anyone who he thought couldn't play

Tutelage is dumb?, but you think that same tutelage that he has been doing since may is great and good enough to start... but if he had more time with the staff he will get worse. not sure how that adds up.

Jimmy plays until he can't play anymore. ease in Lance. Simple

You talk s**t about Goff but Goff has done just as much as Jimmy. So if youre going to look down on Goff, you have to treat Jimmy the same.

what no, from a high level look at this.. Goff wasn't worth keeping anymore because of his play. Jimmy is not worth keeping due to his health.

I'm trying to keep this about lance. so i will end it there

Lol at thinking it's just health. That's why we went a drafted such a "raw" player, 3 first round picks, just bc of health. 😂

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:
"Similar" is pretty arbitrary
What are the percentages for each and where did each rank for that stat?

Jimmy G on 3rd down 2019:
69.23 comp percentage
101.9 rating
AY/A 7.5

Mullens on 3rd down in 2020:
57.5 Comp percentage
71.5 rating
4.85 AY/A

Almost identical I tell ya!

So is the part where I bring up injuries to the offense or no?

love to know down & distance on 3rd downs between the two seasons as well. I'm guessing but I think it was worse in 2020.

and in no way am I saying Mullens is as good as Jimmy. He's just not anything great…similar to Goff imo

Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Thanks for this. where did you find this?

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Thanks for this. where did you find this?

stathead.com

It's $8/month, but first month is free.

Originally posted by TheGore49er:
Lol at thinking it's just health. That's why we went a drafted such a "raw" player, 3 first round picks, just bc of health. 😂

This!

Anyone thinking we moved 3 1sts and a 3rd because of health is trying wayyyy too hard to prop up Jimmy.

If it was about health and nothing more, they would have signed a higher end backup like Dalton. They would have drafted Mills/Mond later. Like you said they wouldn't have drafted this "raw" QB that can't play year 1 (according to some) if it was truly about health.

They wanted an upgrade, at it's pretty damn obvious at this point.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Thanks for this. where did you find this?

stathead.com

It's $8/month, but first month is free.

That's a good find.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
stathead.com

It's $8/month, but first month is free.

word...yeah already pay for PFF and The athletic. Plus all my fantasy football s**t

Go, Trey, go!

Originally posted by TheGore49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by Dsoto87:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
one winning year in 7 years, but you are trying to make it a quick 8.. not sure what 7, 6 etc years ago has to do with this team or regime today

Smith can't run an offense, Fitz.. can't even call a team his home. Goff .. Dalton.. really. If they could really be system QBs they wouldn't be where they are now

Jimmy actually won before the 49ers since you forgot and has won with the 49ers. Giving us our only winning season in 7 years remember.

This whole Kyle chose Lance thing you got is Woo'ish.. But i think Kyle wouldn't choose anyone who he thought couldn't play

Tutelage is dumb?, but you think that same tutelage that he has been doing since may is great and good enough to start... but if he had more time with the staff he will get worse. not sure how that adds up.

Jimmy plays until he can't play anymore. ease in Lance. Simple

You talk s**t about Goff but Goff has done just as much as Jimmy. So if youre going to look down on Goff, you have to treat Jimmy the same.

what no, from a high level look at this.. Goff wasn't worth keeping anymore because of his play. Jimmy is not worth keeping due to his health.

I'm trying to keep this about lance. so i will end it there

Lol at thinking it's just health. That's why we went a drafted such a "raw" player, 3 first round picks, just bc of health. 😂

lol but then he says Trey is not here to play this year. Huh? That means Jimmy's health should be okay. Double-talk.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Ha ha. What should we make of these stats? How do we consider garbage time without seeing (with our very own eyes) our defense and running game literally pick up and carry the team in 2019?

And dont look at yards to go,...look at the yards to go only for the ones that were completed. That way, you aren't inflating conversions that guys didn't do anything with. This stat screams 90+% "Team stat."