Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by Polkadots:
Didn't you just prove what NY said initially? He wrote, "Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability." Three yard difference in air yards per attempt coupled with a 5% increase in conversion rate. Both significant. Both seem to hinge on players other than JG alone (though JG is still integral--obviously)

The constant goalpost moving in these threads are nauseating.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Ha ha. What should we make of these stats? How do we consider garbage time without seeing (with our very own eyes) our defense and running game literally pick up and carry the team in 2019?

And dont look at yards to go,...look at the yards to go only for the ones that were completed. That way, you aren't inflating conversions that guys didn't do anything with. This stat screams 90+% "Team stat."

What exactly do you mean by this?

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Ha ha. What should we make of these stats? How do we consider garbage time without seeing (with our very own eyes) our defense and running game literally pick up and carry the team in 2019?

And dont look at yards to go,...look at the yards to go only for the ones that were completed. That way, you aren't inflating conversions that guys didn't do anything with. This stat screams 90+% "Team stat."

Average yards to go on 3rd down w/ completed pass:

Jimmy 2019: 8.0 (73% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (85% garbage time; 68% all other)
Jimmy 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (0% garbage time; 74% all other)

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down w/ completed pass:

Jimmy 2019: 8.0 (73% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (85% garbage time; 68% all other)
Jimmy 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (0% garbage time; 74% all other)

Sooo,....can you translate this stuff? Garbage time stats are subjective fodder. What exactly are you referring to and what does it mean to you?

He played his role well in 2019 but that's about it. We had the best team in the league. It was a team that carried him.

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability.

The fact that Jimmy's 2019 3rd down conversion rate and Nick Mullens 2020 3rd down conversion rate are so similar proves this statement to be correct.

"Similar" is pretty arbitrary
What are the percentages for each and where did each rank for that stat?

Jimmy G on 3rd down 2019:
69.23 comp percentage
101.9 rating
AY/A 7.5

Mullens on 3rd down in 2020:
57.5 Comp percentage
71.5 rating
4.85 AY/A

Almost identical I tell ya!

Funny that we were talking about conversation rate and then you list stats that aren't conversation rates.

Solid post, Woo.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down w/ completed pass:

Jimmy 2019: 8.0 (73% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (85% garbage time; 68% all other)
Jimmy 2020: 6.9 (74% conversion) (0% garbage time; 74% all other)

Sooo,....can you translate this stuff? Garbage time stats are subjective fodder. What exactly are you referring to and what does it mean to you?

He played his role well in 2019 but that's about it. We had the best team in the league. It was a team that carried him.

Here is what I considered 'garbage time'; down 10+ points in the 4th quarter.

3rd&7, 5:08 remaining, trailing 3-34
3rd&5, 12:36 remaining, trailing 7-30
3rd&10, 2:29 remaining, trailing 17-34
3rd&8, 4:52 remaining, trailing 14-30
3rd&10, 13:40 remaining, trailing 7-23
3rd&10, 12:07 remaining, trailing 10-20
3rd&10, 1:36 remaining, trailing 17-34
3rd&10, 14:57 remaining, trailing 3-31
3rd&10, 1:50 remaining, trailing 24-34
3rd&1, 0:50 remaining, trailing 16-34
3rd&9, 14:16 remaining, trailing 7-23
3rd&5, 11:16 remaining, trailing 7-30
3rd&3, 1:55 remaining, trailing 19-37

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Here is what I considered 'garbage time'; down 10+ points in the 4th quarter.

3rd&7, 5:08 remaining, trailing 3-34
3rd&5, 12:36 remaining, trailing 7-30
3rd&10, 2:29 remaining, trailing 17-34
3rd&8, 4:52 remaining, trailing 14-30
3rd&10, 13:40 remaining, trailing 7-23
3rd&10, 12:07 remaining, trailing 10-20
3rd&10, 1:36 remaining, trailing 17-34
3rd&10, 14:57 remaining, trailing 3-31
3rd&10, 1:50 remaining, trailing 24-34
3rd&1, 0:50 remaining, trailing 16-34
3rd&9, 14:16 remaining, trailing 7-23
3rd&5, 11:16 remaining, trailing 7-30
3rd&3, 1:55 remaining, trailing 19-37

Why not up 10+ points in the 4th quarter? It really doesn't matter. He has average influence at his best and we're setting up to move on.

Originally posted by random49er:
Why not up 10+ points in the 4th quarter? It really doesn't matter. He has average influence at his best and we're setting up to move on.

Because an opposing defense usually doesn't go into prevent defense when they are down 10+ in the fourth..

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by random49er:
Why not up 10+ points in the 4th quarter? It really doesn't matter. He has average influence at his best and we're setting up to move on.

Because an opposing defense usually doesn't go into prevent defense when they are down 10+ in the fourth..

They do go into "I dont really care" defense, though. Backups can come in on both sides when a game is out of hand. That's why it's called "garbage time."

It's all a wasted effort to polish a turd,...just saying.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by random49er:
Why not up 10+ points in the 4th quarter? It really doesn't matter. He has average influence at his best and we're setting up to move on.

Because an opposing defense usually doesn't go into prevent defense when they are down 10+ in the fourth..

They do go into "I dont really care" defense, though. Backups can come in on both sides when a game is out of hand. That's why it's called "garbage time."

It's all a wasted effort to polish a turd,...just saying.

Sure. Someone asked for more info, so I provided that and then added the garbage time. Not trying to argue either way, was just providing info that was requested and some that wasn't.

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

"Similar" is pretty arbitrary
What are the percentages for each and where did each rank for that stat?

Jimmy G on 3rd down 2019:
69.23 comp percentage
101.9 rating
AY/A 7.5

Mullens on 3rd down in 2020:
57.5 Comp percentage
71.5 rating
4.85 AY/A

Almost identical I tell ya!

Didn't you just prove what NY said initially? He wrote, "Jimmy's 3rd down conversions are just as much to do with YAC and play calls as ability." Three yard difference in air yards per attempt coupled with a 5% increase in conversion rate. Both significant. Both seem to hinge on players other than JG alone (though JG is still integral--obviously)

How does it show that These? These are two players on the same team.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

"Similar" is pretty arbitrary
What are the percentages for each and where did each rank for that stat?

Jimmy G on 3rd down 2019:
69.23 comp percentage
101.9 rating
AY/A 7.5

Mullens on 3rd down in 2020:
57.5 Comp percentage
71.5 rating
4.85 AY/A

Almost identical I tell ya!

So is the part where I bring up injuries to the offense or no?

love to know down & distance on 3rd downs between the two seasons as well. I'm guessing but I think it was worse in 2020.

and in no way am I saying Mullens is as good as Jimmy. He's just not anything great…similar to Goff imo

Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Didn't someone say Jimmy's 2019 conversion rate was similar to Mullen's 2020 rate?

Was that Steve ot NY?

Those rates are not similar at all, lol.

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

one winning year in 7 years, but you are trying to make it a quick 8.. not sure what 7, 6 etc years ago has to do with this team or regime today

Smith can't run an offense, Fitz.. can't even call a team his home. Goff .. Dalton.. really. If they could really be system QBs they wouldn't be where they are now

Jimmy actually won before the 49ers since you forgot and has won with the 49ers. Giving us our only winning season in 7 years remember.

This whole Kyle chose Lance thing you got is Woo'ish.. But i think Kyle wouldn't choose anyone who he thought couldn't play

Tutelage is dumb?, but you think that same tutelage that he has been doing since may is great and good enough to start... but if he had more time with the staff he will get worse. not sure how that adds up.

Jimmy plays until he can't play anymore. ease in Lance. Simple

So you automatically assume we will have a losing season with Lance? That's a bit much imo. Outside of not having live reps, running this exact scheme, there isn't a throw or play that Jimmy can do that Lance can't do.

fine I'll leave out the past regime, under kyle one winning season.

im sorry why can't Alex run a NFL offense lol? Dude has over 100 career wins and played in the league for 14yrs. IF fitz was incapable of running a NFL offense he wouldn't be in his 16th yr in the league.

Dalton has won plenty of games in his career, same with Goff. They're system QBs, issue is their past team wanted more…it's not like they didn't get paid a f**k ton of cash at one point. They can run a NFL offense and do what you ask, if pressure or play making is needed outside of that then they're f**ked. It's the same with Jimmy.

OH right right right Jimmy won what? one and a half games before coming here? Please. Stop it. He got thrown out there mid 2017 with less than 100 career passing attempts in 3 yrs, no clue how to run this offense, & played his best football.

where did I say he gets worse? Don't put words in my mouth…I'm saying you're exaggerating the development process during in a NFL season. You're acting like Lance has been sitting on his butt eating Cheetos since September. He's been doing more as far as development in a years worth of football, then what he would be doing on a bench during a season.

If sitting a 1st rd rookie lead to a higher success rate then every single team would do it. We all know that's simply not true.

If lance looks the part, he plays and really there's not much Jimmy can do about it….just like mike garofalo said.

"Hard to get better at football…by not playing football"

The main reason Kyle has one winning season is Jimmy G. He hasn't won here without him.

Kyle is going to start whoever he thinks will give him the best chance of winning this year because he only had that one winning season.

If starting a rookie lead to a higher success rate all teams would do it.

So much for the Trey Lance thread. Sure wish there was a thread in the forum where people could discuss Jimmy Garoppolo things.

Originally posted by ronniefreakinlott42:
So much for the Trey Lance thread. Sure wish there was a thread in the forum where people could discuss Jimmy Garoppolo things.