Realistic trade scenario since Browns want Garrett and Trubisky

Originally posted by tatdwolf49:

Originally posted by krizay:

#12, #33, Josh Gordon & 2nd next year?

No head cases

I for one don't want gordon. BUT I'd take a flyer on him as opposed to a 3rd round pick.

Originally posted by krizay:

Originally posted by tatdwolf49:

Originally posted by krizay:

#12, #33, Josh Gordon & 2nd next year?

No head cases

I for one don't want gordon. BUT I'd take a flyer on him as opposed to a 3rd round pick.

With the third you might get Kupp/Jones/kid from UM. I dunno that's tough.

Plus I thought he'd be a FA?

Im not a big believer in this 'flat talent level will lower trade compensation at the top' theory. I do agree about the actual talent is pretty level after Garrett for the next 15 picks or so but teams spend countless months in analyzing and draft preparation.

What all teams need at the top is impact players to fill their needs and they have done their homework to differentiate between Watson and Trubisky; from Allen and Thomas. These teams even at pick 11ish like the Bengals, Redskins, etc. arent just going stand pat and settle for Dalvin if Fournette is the guy who checks all thier boxes.

Its impact to fill a huge need at the top of the draft, and who cares that 10 teams in the top 17 dont need a qb, there are a few in the perfect spot to jostle around and make a premium deal to get the "guy" that they have been sold on thruout this process.

Hypothetically: Garrett goes to Cleveland at #1, then if the Browns love Trubisky and Watson, thats fine. But say we take Trubisky and Chicago offers the 3rd pick to Cle, better believe Cle pays up big to not only get Watson ahead of NY, but to also not get fired in the process. They lose their jobs if they say "hey guys, lets just wait and draft the next qb available to us".

Teams are going to get their guy in this draft and pay good value. #2 after Garrett is a great spot to be in if we dont want a qb.

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Supply and demand - there are tons of teams who will be looking to pick up extra picks in the 2nd-4th rounds in such a deep draft. There are lots of teams you can trade up with and there are lots of QBs you can target in the first 2-3 rounds. It's not even clear which QB is the best in this draft. Trubisky and Kizer were ranked the highest heading into the combine, but Watson looked the best at the combine. It just seems foolish for anyone to offer much of a haul for the #2 pick when there are plenty of potential trade partners they can trade with to get a top QB.

All this talk about needing to accept a king's ransom for the pick is nonsense. If it's in our interest to trade down and we can find a trade that makes sense for us, we'll do it whether or not we "win" on the trade value chart or we get a king's ransom.

Once again if someone is looking to trade up it means they really want a player available there. Yes this is a deep draft it doesn't mean we should say screw it we'd like to pick up an extra pick or two and totally get hosed especially when Trubisky or Watson have great potential. Imagine if we trade down for a couple of lower picks just to trade down and the guy they draft with our pick turns into a franchise qb?

Like I said earlier you're also setting a precedent for what you're willing to take. You take less now you'll never get what you SHOULD get another time. Bad business to take less just to trade down but we'll see what happens. May be a moot point.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by 9erred:

Originally posted by Alfienator:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Alfienator:
Exactly, if they want him trubisky at #2. They need to give up a king's ransom like 12, 33, 52, 65, 1st rounder 2018, and 2nd rounder 2019

Yeah that wont happen.

Yeah because Browns are going to be the browns and pick trubisky with the first pick and we get Garret with the 2nd pick.

IF you READ the Original Post if Garret is available at pick #2 no trade the 9ers get Garrett, yes that is awesome! However if they pick Garrett number 1 and they want Trubisky, the trade I proposed (along with a 4th next year) is pretty darn close on the points calculator. Considering how flat the talent is I think the regime would jump on this in a second.

It's not that close on the trade value chart, but it's a lot more realistic than some of the trades that have been proposed in mock drafts. Pick 12 (1200), 33 (580) and 65 (265) add up to 2045. The future 4th round pick is probably worth ~50 points coming from one of the worst teams in the league (equivalent of late 4th round pick this year). That puts you at around 2100 which is well shy of 2600.

Even though the trade favors them based on the pick value chart, I don't think the Browns would make that trade. In this particular draft, there isn't a huge gap between whoever gets chosen 2nd overall and the BPA at 12 (certainly not the equivalent of 1400 points of draft capital). The #65 pick is also relatively more valuable because of the depth of talent in this year's draft.

If teams value the #2 pick at around a #4 pick in a typical draft, it's only worth 1800 points. The #12 pick may be worth more because there are a lot of good players in this draft after Garrett at a similar level. The difference then becomes a 2nd round pick and nothing more.

Ding Ding Ding winner someone figured it out. It does not balance out on points for the 9ers, but in this draft the player at 2 and 12 probably are equal. That is why I said this is reasonable.

Originally posted by 9erred:

Originally posted by genus49:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Supply and demand - there are tons of teams who will be looking to pick up extra picks in the 2nd-4th rounds in such a deep draft. There are lots of teams you can trade up with and there are lots of QBs you can target in the first 2-3 rounds. It's not even clear which QB is the best in this draft. Trubisky and Kizer were ranked the highest heading into the combine, but Watson looked the best at the combine. It just seems foolish for anyone to offer much of a haul for the #2 pick when there are plenty of potential trade partners they can trade with to get a top QB.

All this talk about needing to accept a king's ransom for the pick is nonsense. If it's in our interest to trade down and we can find a trade that makes sense for us, we'll do it whether or not we "win" on the trade value chart or we get a king's ransom.

Once again if someone is looking to trade up it means they really want a player available there. Yes this is a deep draft it doesn't mean we should say screw it we'd like to pick up an extra pick or two and totally get hosed especially when Trubisky or Watson have great potential. Imagine if we trade down for a couple of lower picks just to trade down and the guy they draft with our pick turns into a franchise qb?

Like I said earlier you're also setting a precedent for what you're willing to take. You take less now you'll never get what you SHOULD get another time. Bad business to take less just to trade down but we'll see what happens. May be a moot point.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

Originally posted by 9erred:

Originally posted by Alfienator:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by Alfienator:
Exactly, if they want him trubisky at #2. They need to give up a king's ransom like 12, 33, 52, 65, 1st rounder 2018, and 2nd rounder 2019

Yeah that wont happen.

Yeah because Browns are going to be the browns and pick trubisky with the first pick and we get Garret with the 2nd pick.

IF you READ the Original Post if Garret is available at pick #2 no trade the 9ers get Garrett, yes that is awesome! However if they pick Garrett number 1 and they want Trubisky, the trade I proposed (along with a 4th next year) is pretty darn close on the points calculator. Considering how flat the talent is I think the regime would jump on this in a second.

It's not that close on the trade value chart, but it's a lot more realistic than some of the trades that have been proposed in mock drafts. Pick 12 (1200), 33 (580) and 65 (265) add up to 2045. The future 4th round pick is probably worth ~50 points coming from one of the worst teams in the league (equivalent of late 4th round pick this year). That puts you at around 2100 which is well shy of 2600.

Even though the trade favors them based on the pick value chart, I don't think the Browns would make that trade. In this particular draft, there isn't a huge gap between whoever gets chosen 2nd overall and the BPA at 12 (certainly not the equivalent of 1400 points of draft capital). The #65 pick is also relatively more valuable because of the depth of talent in this year's draft.

If teams value the #2 pick at around a #4 pick in a typical draft, it's only worth 1800 points. The #12 pick may be worth more because there are a lot of good players in this draft after Garrett at a similar level. The difference then becomes a 2nd round pick and nothing more.

Ding Ding Ding winner someone figured it out. It does not balance out on points for the 9ers, but in this draft the player at 2 and 12 probably are equal. That is why I said this is reasonable.

Equal in terms of talent maybe, but if you have specific needs you want addressed and you think other teams will take them first 2 >> 12. For example, I doubt Trubisky or Watson drop to 12..Why? because so many teams are desperate for a QB - Bears, Browns, 49ers, Bills, Jets, Redskins if they trade Cousins,etc....and that's only the tip. Teams that have QBs close to retirement will be looking - e.g. Pittsburgh, Arizona.

At the end of the day while the talent level in this class is deep and lots of teams want to hold onto all their picks...it takes one.

Especially in this scenario if Cleveland wants Trubisky they will pay. Local kid, potential franchise QB that the fans can REALLY get behind can trump the frugal nature of their front office.

I don't think in any way would they surrender their next year's 1st rounder given their track record but I think the 2 for 12 swap and their 2nd rounders this year and one next year is fair.

They'd basically be getting the opportunity to draft the two top guys on their draft board. That's a rare opportunity, not sure a team has ever had #1 and #2 overall picks in a draft before. This way there is no regrets for them. That type of peace of mind is worth those picks.

If Cleveland brings in Taylor qb becomes a luxury not a need this year. I really think this is going to be a year where the qb desperate teams look to chop off their foot before taking a qb. Clv wants Taylor, Chc wants Glennon, the Jets want to trade down and we're just waiting for Cousins. No one wants this year's qb class and if you're looking to score big value on a trade it's not happening.

If Cleveland was that crazy. I'd want the 12, a second rounder, and next years 1.

Originally posted by Cisco0623:

If Cleveland was that crazy. I'd want the 12, a second rounder, and next years 1.

And more.

Any negotiation on trade back from #2 to #12 starts with a 2nd round pick and future 1st. If a 2018 1st isn't in the deal then it's a no deal.

Originally posted by genus49:

At the end of the day while the talent level in this class is deep and lots of teams want to hold onto all their picks...it takes one.

Especially in this scenario if Cleveland wants Trubisky they will pay. Local kid, potential franchise QB that the fans can REALLY get behind can trump the frugal nature of their front office.

I don't think in any way would they surrender their next year's 1st rounder given their track record but I think the 2 for 12 swap and their 2nd rounders this year and one next year is fair.

They'd basically be getting the opportunity to draft the two top guys on their draft board. That's a rare opportunity, not sure a team has ever had #1 and #2 overall picks in a draft before. This way there is no regrets for them. That type of peace of mind is worth those picks.

Colts Emtmann & Coryatt '92.

If we trade with the Browns it should include #12 and their first next year (as well as 3rd this year). We need to put ourselves in the best position possible to land Darnold or Rosen and having both our 1st and the Browns (both likely top 10) we enter 2018 in prime position to get our FQB in either one of those 2 or Cousins. Take our lumps this year and build out skill position and defense and go all in next year.

Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:

If we trade with the Browns it should include #12 and their first next year (as well as 3rd this year). We need to put ourselves in the best position possible to land Darnold or Rosen and having both our 1st and the Browns (both likely top 10) we enter 2018 in prime position to get our FQB in either one of those 2 or Cousins. Take our lumps this year and build out skill position and defense and go all in next year.

I can't see Cleveland doing this.

12th pick, next years first, a 2nd, and a 5th and we'll give them our 1st and a 5th.

I say "screw em"
They can't win one extra game and help us out, let them miss out on the QB of their dreams
(Unless we can really get a lot and screw up the rest of their draft and future)
#notabrownsfanbyalongshot

I would do this; if the browns draft Mitch I trade down with Chicago so they can draft Garrett and add more pics. Draft fournette @#3