Quarterback Watch

Originally posted by Ajanke:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by KRS-1:

Originally posted by Kolohe:

Originally posted by KRS-1:
Damn we could play ourselves right out of a 1st round QB short of trading up. Time to package up P-Willy and Crabtree to move up for Luck

I don't know about P-Williy but I would package up Crabtree to move up for Luck.

I started reading this response and went from to . Honestly.

I wouldn't trade either of those guys. Or Frank. Or The Disease. I wanna see the Senior Bowl & Combine then get the pro day reports before I can really determine if I'd be willing to trade next year's first to move up or not (for one of the QB's in this class). Undecided on the guy I think we should go after.

Honestly Kris, if it took Crabtree and not a monster trade to get Luck, I'd be all for it. At this point Crabtree is replaceable.

Ditto. Craptree is pissing me off. He needs to learn how to play consistent and f**king work

Perhaps I'll feel differently once we get deeper into the offseason and there is a better feel and idea for the actual drop off between Luck and the other 3 as well as seeing if those other 3 are good or great prospects.

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by Thorhawk:

Originally posted by communist:
oh yeah...how could i forget that he was SLIGHTLY over 60% in his other two seasons...what a significant number...
name me some franchise-qbs, who had sub-60%-completions in college and failed in the nfl.

http://www.scoresreport.com/2010/04/20/can-we-predict-a-quarterbacks-success/

that's your argument??? i see vick, cutler and palmer on the "bad" side either...are those guys busts?
it's one thing to have some stats, which backup your arguments, it's another thing whether those stats are supportable in terms of common cause interdependence/spurious regression.

That's three guys out of how many though? The point is chances are VERY slim that you will get a legit starter if his completion percentage was less than 60% with a low number of starts as well.

we could spend a look above the horizontal line and you will see a lot of 60+ completion guys, who are not a big help for their respective teams.

That wasn 't the point of the article nor my post. The point was about the chances of success are greater if a QB has a 60% completion rate AND 37 starts (not just 60% completion rate). And of course you can find failures who are above that line. The thing is when you compare the percentage of failures of those above that line to those below....there is no comparison. I already didn't care for Jake Locker in the first round, but this only adds to it.

The problem with taking Cam and locker is they are projects who need someone to develop them and we dont have that.

Not that Luck and Mallett dont need to be groomed, they just seem a lot more NFL ready.


I personally am against all the QB's in the 1st round except Luck unless we can get a HC/OC who can develop a QB

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

That wasn 't the point of the article nor my post. The point was about the chances of success are greater if a QB has a 60% completion rate AND 37 starts (not just 60% completion rate). And of course you can find failures who are above that line. The thing is when you compare the percentage of failures of those above that line to those below....there is no comparison. I already didn't care for Jake Locker in the first round, but this only adds to it.

above 37 and less 60%: 40% success rate (2/5), more than 60%: 54% (7/13)...i left mccoy and tebow out...don't see a big difference.

what about kevin riley from cal?

Originally posted by communist:

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

That wasn 't the point of the article nor my post. The point was about the chances of success are greater if a QB has a 60% completion rate AND 37 starts (not just 60% completion rate). And of course you can find failures who are above that line. The thing is when you compare the percentage of failures of those above that line to those below....there is no comparison. I already didn't care for Jake Locker in the first round, but this only adds to it.

above 37 and less 60%: 40% success rate (2/5), more than 60%: 54% (7/13)...i left mccoy and tebow out...don't see a big difference.

The fact that there are almost three times as many above 60%/above 37 as there are above 37/less than 60% should jump out to you. Add in the fact that it doesn't take as many to have a higher percentage when the numbers are lower. If you got 13 or 14 (I counted 14) QBs who fell into the above 37/below 60% category from that 10 year stretch, that 40% "success" rate would be much lower. Let's also keep in mind that the 2 of the 5 you probably counted (Palmer and Cutler?) don't even compare to most of the successes on the other side of the line.

There will always be exceptions to the rule, but the player better have some exceptional ability and/or coaching in order to be that exception.

Originally posted by communist:
what about kevin riley from cal?

You're being sarcastic, right?

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
The problem with taking Cam and locker is they are projects who need someone to develop them and we dont have that.

Not that Luck and Mallett dont need to be groomed, they just seem a lot more NFL ready.


I personally am against all the QB's in the 1st round except Luck unless we can get a HC/OC who can develop a QB

new to this guy Mallet. looked at some stats and this caught my eye:

Why does Mallet have negative rushing yards? Sacks?

And if it is from sacks...does he hold on to the ball too long?

I want this team to get there heads outta there butts and sign harbaugh and draft luck, I don't care as Long as we don't trade away Willis, Davis, crabs, or gore then I'm fine with whatever it takes to get luck. This team needs him. If for some bizarre reason we can't get him ( and there better be a really good reason) then Ricky stanzi outta iowa I feel he's the sleeper qb in the draft and is goin to b a great NFL qb

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
The problem with taking Cam and locker is they are projects who need someone to develop them and we dont have that.

Not that Luck and Mallett dont need to be groomed, they just seem a lot more NFL ready.


I personally am against all the QB's in the 1st round except Luck unless we can get a HC/OC who can develop a QB

Locker isnt half the project Cam newton is.

1) Luck
2) Mallet
3) Locker
4) Stanzi/Ponder
5) Newton

Another guy to keep an eye on from a development standpoint is VaTech's Tyrod Taylor. He's at least 2 to 3 years away from being able to run a pro-style offense, so anyone who drafts him needs to view him as a developmental QB, not a ready-made starter. But this kid has all of the tools Michael Vick has (though not quite as quick), and even showed tremendous growth in his accuracy and pocket presence this year...not to mention, is an absolute beast of a competitor.

If we're able to land a veteran starter (and of course the right head coach, QB coach and innovative offensive system) or even a 1st/2nd rounder, I'd love to get Taylor in the 4th/5th round as well and bring him along slowly. He's the kind of kid who could pay huge dividends down the road, if developed properly.

Originally posted by GhostofFredDean74:
Another guy to keep an eye on from a development standpoint is VaTech's Tyrod Taylor. He's at least 2 to 3 years away from being able to run a pro-style offense, so anyone who drafts him needs to view him as a developmental QB, not a ready-made starter. But this kid has all of the tools Michael Vick has (though not quite as quick), and even showed tremendous growth in his accuracy and pocket presence this year...not to mention, is an absolute beast of a competitor.

If we're able to land a veteran starter (and of course the right head coach, QB coach and innovative offensive system) or even a 1st/2nd rounder, I'd love to get Taylor in the 4th/5th round as well and bring him along slowly. He's the kind of kid who could pay huge dividends down the road, if developed properly.

Can't wait to see how he plays against Stanford. It's going to be a great game.

Originally posted by Kiwihill:
I want this team to get there heads outta there butts and sign harbaugh and draft luck, I don't care as Long as we don't trade away Willis, Davis, crabs, or gore then I'm fine with whatever it takes to get luck. This team needs him. If for some bizarre reason we can't get him ( and there better be a really good reason) then Ricky stanzi outta iowa I feel he's the sleeper qb in the draft and is goin to b a great NFL qb

Whatever it takes? Well, at the very least it will gut us for the next two drafts and if we win the next two games it may be more than that.

So no CBs or pass rush in the draft for another three years. And that will be ok? No NT (if we stay I. 3-4) either. No replacement for Frank until 2013. That ok with you? All for one guy who may be a bust or could pick up a career-ending injury before he even plays his first game.

And that is why, apart from Ditka, very few coaches attempt to move that far up the draft order unless they are looking - or think they are - for pretty much the last piece of the jigsaw.

So, no. Luck is not the way to go.

Originally posted by DesiDez:
I know many of you are enjoying the Giants heading to the WS, but Blaine Gabbert just entered the conversation as one of the top QBs in this years draft. By the end of this season, Gabbert will surpass Locker and Mallett and run right behind Andrew Luck. And him and Luck still have one more year of eligibility.

Bump...

McShay has Gabbert #2 QB behind Luck, right now and Chris Mortensen mentioned Gabbert's name on Mike & Mike this morning as a QB generating a lot of buzz.

I'll be surprised if he actually enters the draft but I'm not surprised that he's surpassing Locker and Mallett this year. The kid is Big Ben II.

Mizzou plays Iowa this year in the Insight.com Bowl so you Ricky Stanzi fanboys can watch another prospect on the other team.

Originally posted by spizzy:

Originally posted by blizzuntz:
The problem with taking Cam and locker is they are projects who need someone to develop them and we dont have that.

Not that Luck and Mallett dont need to be groomed, they just seem a lot more NFL ready.


I personally am against all the QB's in the 1st round except Luck unless we can get a HC/OC who can develop a QB

Locker isnt half the project Cam newton is.

1) Luck
2) Mallet
3) Locker
4) Stanzi/Ponder
5) Newton

Locker's decision making is horrible though. with Locker he has the physical tools but the mental ascpect of his game is what I question most. I'm going to the Holiday Bowl so I'll get to see him against 2 top notch corners for Nebraska but I don't expect Locker to fair well.