Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I disagree completely. If you're a new GM, you don't want to wait 2-3 years for your rookie QB to make an impact, you also don't want to be picking up off the trash heap of free agents to hope and pray that a guy like Matt Moore can deliver for you. A 3rd round pick for a guy who has played as well as Alex is a BARGAIN, 3rd round is me trying to be conservative, ideally a 2nd rounder or multiple picks is not out of the question.
There's about 7 or 8 teams that Alex could be starting on next year, even if teams only select him to hold down the fort for a couple of seasons, a 3rd rounder is still a bargain, you know what the success rate of 2nd and 3rd round QB's is???
Bottomline, in the NFL, you need to be able to compete and if you have a smart veteran QB like Alex available, there will be significant interest and I trust Baalke to extract the maximum compensation possible.
Regardless of your personal feelings about Alex Smith, he's a valuable commodity in this league, and the 49ers will act accordingly.
You make great points and I know you are one of the best with the talent evaluations here, but I am still disagreeing with a few thoughts:
I think GMs who need a qb are going to go after the aggressive types, the strong arms, the players who take risks, which is the best types to lead teams to wins, not conservatism for a couple years to "hold down the fort". Teams have to win now and have huge pressure from owners now a days.
Alex has an evaluation of his whole body of work, not just his 12 last games.
Success rate hasnt been good at all over the years, but that is rapidly changing, you know that. Youngs kids are coming in very prepared and smart and athletic, so that view is changing from what coaches are soon expecting from their players.
And draft picks I believe are becoming more valuable in todays game for the above mentioned. Teams want picks and more picks more than ever. And I think most of these teams who want a qb are banking more on finding the next Kaepernick in the draft than giving up a second round pick to nab Alex for three stop-gap seasons.