Originally posted by SFL49ER:
You make great points and I know you are one of the best with the talent evaluations here, but I am still disagreeing with a few thoughts:
I think GMs who need a qb are going to go after the aggressive types, the strong arms, the players who take risks, which is the best types to lead teams to wins, not conservatism for a couple years to "hold down the fort". Teams have to win now and have huge pressure from owners now a days.
Alex has an evaluation of his whole body of work, not just his 12 last games.
Success rate hasnt been good at all over the years, but that is rapidly changing, you know that. Youngs kids are coming in very prepared and smart and athletic, so that view is changing from what coaches are soon expecting from their players.
And draft picks I believe are becoming more valuable in todays game for the above mentioned. Teams want picks and more picks more than ever. And I think most of these teams who want a qb are banking more on finding the next Kaepernick in the draft than giving up a second round pick to nab Alex for three stop-gap seasons.
This is a terrible year for QB's, its really a crap shoot, compared to last year and even 2011, this draft is largely devoid of talent. A lot of the teams that will be looking at QB, such as KC, Jacksonville and Cleveland will likely be looking in the 2nd round range or lower. Alex Smith is a smart veteran who will play in the system, additionally......what's to say he doesn't develop further and play even better? Its certainly not unheard of, Rich Gannon was garbage for most of his career and really took off in his early 30s.
When it comes down to it, few GM's are going to want to roll their dice with a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they'll add a young QB, definitely, but they'll want a veteran starter as well, and taking a random guy off the heap, such as Jacksonville did with Chad Henne, hasn't been proven to be very successful.
Simply put, if a team needs a starter for the NOW, Alex Smith is at the top of the list, Vick might get more hype, but Vick is also unpredictable, less accurate and lacks consistency, as well as being injury prone. Alex will draw interest for many reasons, but the biggest being......there's NOBODY else out there. You either take a shot with Alex, or you go out, sign a generic free agent or take a young rookie and throw him into the fire and then hope your fan base is awfully understanding.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Jan 29, 2013 at 9:28 PM ]