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SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS GAMEDAY THREAD (Week 15)

My biggest worry is penalties. We're giving too many new sets of downs to teams by stupid defensive holds etc. And refs are notoriously flag-happy when golden boy Brady is playing. I worry about PIs and roughing the passer flags. Last night Houston allowed NE to extend drives through penalties when the game was still close (and then Schaub threw that awful pick). We're almost Raider-like this year when it gets to flags.
Originally posted by Willisfn4life:
New England is 8th against the run and 29th against the pass. That means that it will help tremendously to have a healthy receiving corps Sunday so hopefully we get Manningham back but most of all Vernon Davis must be a crucial part of the gameplan. Use what they do well against them. I believe that Patrick or Bowman can have some success covering Hernandez but I don't believe they have anybody ready to cover Vernon.

I hope you are correct but Bellichick is a master at designing coverages. It is where he started as a coach. The Pats did a great job taking Owen Daniels out of the game last night. Of course that doesn't mean they can cover Davis, however, as we have discussed all over this board for weeks now, Vernon Davis has been absent the passing game against some very average secondaries.
Yes, the penalty thing...refs don't cheat very often I don't think, but they do make reputation calls. This is true in every sport. NE, at home.... there will be a tendency for them to call the big hits, pass interference and hitting Brady late. Not only that, but clearly the calls and non-call against the Niners have tended to be real killers. Not claiming a conspiracy, there is none, but that has been the pattern and refs use precedent and patterns in their decision making.
Shuab has had a passer rating below 80.0 in every prime-time game this year

Texans don't show up for prime-time games
Originally posted by mcbaes72:
You bring up good points, but I still see this as 50/50 chances to win, Pats offense vs. Niners defense is the key match up. Kaep hasn't thrown a TD last couple of games, but he will be a problem for them when he takes off running for a first down or even a TD. I expect a lot of Gore up the middle and LMJ sweeps. PA passes to the middle/deep part of the field will back off the safeties and open up running lanes. I believe we have the best front 7 in the NFL on D, but as a change of pace, wouldn't be surprised if they played a lot of Nickel rush 4 drop 7 back to watch for screens and pressure Brady without much blitzing. Should be a good game, much closer and more competitive than last night's game.

This is a game I think we come out very conservative on Offense. I expect 3-4 shot plays, but other than that it will be all 5-15yd route combos. We must establish the ground game against the Pats. I think LMJ becomes important to test the edge and get Wilfork away from coming straight ahead. I look at what Foster was able to do in the first couple of series and it gives me hope that the Niners can run on them. The Texans got behind too quickly and got away from the run early.

As you stated I think we come out in the Nickel like the game plan from the Packers game. I worry that the Patriots OL will stifle our 4-man pass rush and the Brady gets ample time. Obviously, if this happens it's trouble. I expect us to counter this with putting Bowman and Willis in the A gaps and mixing up blitzes/coverages.

This is a winnable game. Limit turnovers and make sure to establish the run game.
patriots will try to run on us
Originally posted by cciowa:
no but we will probably have six penalties in the first quarter cuz that is what we do. any drive extending penalties by our alleged elite defense is just like a turnover cuz brady will make us pay for it.

Penalties have become a major concern. It suggests this team, particularly the defense, is not as disciplined as it needs to be to win big games. I lay this on the coaching staff. They should be sending a message that the stupid penalties are not acceptable, but it doesn't look like that message is getting home, if it is even being sent. 49ers are 4th most penalized team in the league. Penalties and TOs are two things SB winning teams do not do.
I think the Patriots are in for a rude awakening!

The Cards beat 'em, the Hawks beat 'em. Is it really necessary to remind ourselves that our gang has a stronger defense AND more dynamic offense then either of those?

Why the panic?
  • Because they whipped the Texans? Let me tell you, the Texans have been skating on thin ice for over a month now and it just broke on them last night. No shock.
  • Cause they managed to win a shootout with the mighty Bills? Oooo.
  • Cause they squeaked out an OT win over the Jets? wow...
  • Cause they beat the Fins by a TD. Now I'm really scared.

We on the other hand have been trying new things, bringing top draft picks up to speed, and preparing for the home stretch.

Final score: Niners 31, Patsies 13
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by cciowa:
no but we will probably have six penalties in the first quarter cuz that is what we do. any drive extending penalties by our alleged elite defense is just like a turnover cuz brady will make us pay for it.

Penalties have become a major concern. It suggests this team, particularly the defense, is not as disciplined as it needs to be to win big games. I lay this on the coaching staff. They should be sending a message that the stupid penalties are not acceptable, but it doesn't look like that message is getting home, if it is even being sent. 49ers are 4th most penalized team in the league. Penalties and TOs are two things SB winning teams do not do.

a lot of questionable calls

bowman penalty? Goldson has been flagged for hits that shouldnt have been?

the PI on brown was iffy as well
Harbaugh wanted to get Kaep ready to play in big games...well...this is a very big game and it will sit squarely on Kaepernick's shoulders to win or lose.

Last night's game is a preview of what we can expect from New England defensively. The key to last night's game was that the Pats were able to take Andre Johnson, one of the best receivers in the league, out of the game with single coverage. That allowed NE to commit 8 to the LOS and that took away much of the Texans running game. Expect BB to bring the same strategy to shut down Gore and the run game. With Vince Wilfork playing the middle as well as he ever has, it is going to be hard for Gore to find the space inside the tackles that he loves. The result is that 49er success will have to come largely from the passing game.

This coverage pattern is the same tactic the Giants have used against the 49ers the last two times they played (both 49er loses). Consequently, if the 49ers are to win this game, Crabtree will have to break single coverage consistently to provide a ready target for CK. That will be a challenge because Crab has not been able to do that against the better CBs. Manningham's health appears to still be an issue so that will leave it to VD and Walker to try to get open. I expect BB to have scouted VD very well and will spend an extra defender on him if he must in order to keep him in check.

So it will come down to how well Kaepernick can read the defense and adjust. Expect the Pats to throw a lot of different looks at him to confuse him. This has worked the past three games so this game will be a huge test to see how much progress he has made. IMO, it will take 28 points to beat the Pats and I don't see the 49ers running all that well on them. Consequently, we will get a chance to see if Harbaugh's great experiment is going to be successful this season or will it take more time.
Originally posted by ads_2006:
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by cciowa:
no but we will probably have six penalties in the first quarter cuz that is what we do. any drive extending penalties by our alleged elite defense is just like a turnover cuz brady will make us pay for it.

Penalties have become a major concern. It suggests this team, particularly the defense, is not as disciplined as it needs to be to win big games. I lay this on the coaching staff. They should be sending a message that the stupid penalties are not acceptable, but it doesn't look like that message is getting home, if it is even being sent. 49ers are 4th most penalized team in the league. Penalties and TOs are two things SB winning teams do not do.

a lot of questionable calls

bowman penalty? Goldson has been flagged for hits that shouldnt have been?

the PI on brown was iffy as well

Yes, some questionable calls but even if you take away some of those, this team has committed too many penalties this season to go deep into the playoffs unless they stop it.
Originally posted by Mankster:
I think the Patriots are in for a rude awakening!

The Cards beat 'em, the Hawks beat 'em. Is it really necessary to remind ourselves that our gang has a stronger defense AND more dynamic offense then either of those?

Why the panic?
  • Because they whipped the Texans? Let me tell you, the Texans have been skating on thin ice for over a month now and it just broke on them last night. No shock.
  • Cause they managed to win a shootout with the mighty Bills? Oooo.
  • Cause they squeaked out an OT win over the Jets? wow...
  • Cause they beat the Fins by a TD. Now I'm really scared.

We on the other hand have been trying new things, bringing top draft picks up to speed, and preparing for the home stretch.

Final score: Niners 31, Patsies 13

Why the panic?

  • Cause we managed a tie and loss a to the Rams? Oooo.
  • Cause we barely beat a Miami team because of their mistake and meaningless run at the end? wow...
  • Cause Tom Brady and New England are averaging 40.5 points on offense in the last 7 games...You better be scared
[ Edited by jimmythegreekjr on Dec 11, 2012 at 9:37 AM ]
Niners on offense: Drive killing penalties. Very poor OL play (very overrated OL). Running game has been spotty (take away two Kaepernick runs and the last two games have been mediocre a lot of the time; check the yardage). The Pat's will load the box to stop the run, probably. Also very poor play-calling tempo by Kaepernick killed/failed to establish offensive rythmn the last two games.

Niners on defense: Very good front seven, but poor starting corners and pass coverage. Brady is a super-star. He will exploit this weakness.

The Niners will have to keep the ball out of Brady's hands by slowly matriculating down the field when they have the ball. And then convert to TDs. Can they do this in Foxborough? A Niner win would be a major "beating the odds".

If the Niners lose, don't be too disappointed; they are still learning and their upward curve is steep.
Eric Branch ‏@Eric_Branch #49ers defense hasn't forced a turnover in 9 quarters (plus overtime vs. Rams). #Patriots Tom Brady has 4 turnovers this season.
Originally posted by ChazBoner:
Dashon needs to say hello to Mr.Welker very early in the game.




Love it but look at Rogers getting beat yet again to the inside. If Goldson isn't there, that turns into a big play, although Bo looked like he had a good line to make a tackle. I worry A LOT about Rogers getting smoked by Welker.
[ Edited by Beezy33 on Dec 11, 2012 at 9:41 AM ]