TE--Fleener offers a weapon not currently on the team. In Harbaugh's multiple TE sets VD and Fleener would be a formidable two-some. Walker would still be valuable moving around, as when he lined up in over twenty spots in a game. Very versatile and a quick learner.
WR--Moss may be great or cut...who knows? Crabtree has started slowly in his career but with Manningham and Moss (or another guy) taking some of the DBs with them MC may have a breakout year. Manningham was not my favorite receiver but often catches clutch balls. Don't see him doing much for the short game but I am really not sure what he can do in this offense. Williams did not excell even when Swain was the other option. He did not make the most of his opportunities. I like him but he needs to become more confident...hard to do after two fumbles and a kicked ball in the playoffs. Rookie is important for depth and in case Moss implodes.
Game Plan--Harbaugh likes options...lots of them! He would love to run out three TEs on a play and four WRs the next. Why not, it gives the defense an overload.
Too bad the title of this thread is insulting and condescending...it's a worthwhile effort.
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The Total Inability of 49er Fans to Understand Receiver Performance
Mar 21, 2012 at 6:50 PM
- dtg_9er
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Mar 21, 2012 at 7:06 PM
- mike
- Veteran
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This thread is irony. "49er fans" can't understand receiver performance yet apparently neither can you. Lol.
Crabtree improved statistically from year 1 to year 2, but mostly only because he got 20 more targets(due to injuries at the position). His YAC dropped, so did his average and he even had fewer TDs(again despite 20 more targets). He still dropped quite a few key passes, he still was not a great redzone target, he still doesn't make an impact on third downs.
It's clear that he is not a guy most passing offenses would want as a #1.
Manningham is coming from a high passing offense, where he was once a solid #2 before he got injured, in which beastly Cruz replaced him. He's got solid hands, but don't be disappointed when his stats are no better than morgans in our offense.
Moss had 3 teams in 2010, took a year off, honestly I don't expect much from him. He's 36 and really is over the hill.
Crabtree improved statistically from year 1 to year 2, but mostly only because he got 20 more targets(due to injuries at the position). His YAC dropped, so did his average and he even had fewer TDs(again despite 20 more targets). He still dropped quite a few key passes, he still was not a great redzone target, he still doesn't make an impact on third downs.
It's clear that he is not a guy most passing offenses would want as a #1.
Manningham is coming from a high passing offense, where he was once a solid #2 before he got injured, in which beastly Cruz replaced him. He's got solid hands, but don't be disappointed when his stats are no better than morgans in our offense.
Moss had 3 teams in 2010, took a year off, honestly I don't expect much from him. He's 36 and really is over the hill.
Mar 21, 2012 at 8:21 PM
- nickbradley
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- Posts: 3,755
Originally posted by dtg_9er:TE--Fleener offers a weapon not currently on the team. In Harbaugh's multiple TE sets VD and Fleener would be a formidable two-some. Walker would still be valuable moving around, as when he lined up in over twenty spots in a game. Very versatile and a quick learner.
WR--Moss may be great or cut...who knows? Crabtree has started slowly in his career but with Manningham and Moss (or another guy) taking some of the DBs with them MC may have a breakout year. Manningham was not my favorite receiver but often catches clutch balls. Don't see him doing much for the short game but I am really not sure what he can do in this offense. Williams did not excell even when Swain was the other option. He did not make the most of his opportunities. I like him but he needs to become more confident...hard to do after two fumbles and a kicked ball in the playoffs. Rookie is important for depth and in case Moss implodes.
Game Plan--Harbaugh likes options...lots of them! He would love to run out three TEs on a play and four WRs the next. Why not, it gives the defense an overload.
Too bad the title of this thread is insulting and condescending...it's a worthwhile effort.
It's on par with the article today about Niners fans being whiny little biotchtes about the qb position.
Mar 21, 2012 at 8:23 PM
- nickbradley
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Originally posted by mike:This thread is irony. "49er fans" can't understand receiver performance yet apparently neither can you. Lol.
Crabtree improved statistically from year 1 to year 2, but mostly only because he got 20 more targets(due to injuries at the position). His YAC dropped, so did his average and he even had fewer TDs(again despite 20 more targets). He still dropped quite a few key passes, he still was not a great redzone target, he still doesn't make an impact on third downs.
It's clear that he is not a guy most passing offenses would want as a #1.
Manningham is coming from a high passing offense, where he was once a solid #2 before he got injured, in which beastly Cruz replaced him. He's got solid hands, but don't be disappointed when his stats are no better than morgans in our offense.
Moss had 3 teams in 2010, took a year off, honestly I don't expect much from him. He's 36 and really is over the hill.
Crabs numbers are adjusted for targets homey. 175% increase in performance per target.
Mar 21, 2012 at 8:26 PM
- buck
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The offense that Harbaugh ran at Stanford relied quite often on packages with two or three tight ends.
I will accept that as a fact, but his use of TE may have been the result of contingent factors as much as it was a matter of preference.
I am sure that given his druthers, Harbaugh would enjoy having the capacity to run 2 or 3 TE sets and enjoy having the capacity to run 3 or 4 wide receiver sets.
The lack of healthy and skilled wide receivers was a major problem last year.
The team has made an effort to improve our receiving corps by adding Moss and Manningham.
Hopefully, these two additions will prove worthwhile, but even if they do there is no reason that the team should not strive to continue improving its receiver corp, particularly considering the possibility that these additions along with Crabtree and Williams might not fulfill their perceived potential.
While the statistical constructs, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average(DVOA) .and or Defense-adjusted Yards Above (DYAR), developed by Football Outsiders are valid analytical tools, they are no more than tools and not necessarily more valid than traditional constructs used by the NFL to rank players.
In the DYAR ranking, Larry Fitzgerald (rank # 11) is ranked below Laurent Robinson and Hakim Nicks. VJ (rank #14) is ranked below G. Jennings and Dez Bryant.
In the DVOA, rankings, Fitzgeral is ranked 31 and VJ is ranked 19.
Do these constructs really tell how well a player plays or a player's true comparative value? I would say not really.
Not using a first round pick to challenge Williams, Manningham, or Williams because of their rankings within Football Outsiders statistical frame works makes little if any sense.
First, these frame works do not include college players We can not use the system to contrast the potential of Kendall Wright with the potential of Kyle Williams.
Second, given the substantial differences between college and professional football cramming college statistics into the DVOA or DYAR would not function. Doing so simply would not meet the accepted standards of statistical validity.
I happen to think that Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill are worth a first round pick, even if their playing time next year is limited by the presence of Manningham and Moss.
I will accept that as a fact, but his use of TE may have been the result of contingent factors as much as it was a matter of preference.
I am sure that given his druthers, Harbaugh would enjoy having the capacity to run 2 or 3 TE sets and enjoy having the capacity to run 3 or 4 wide receiver sets.
The lack of healthy and skilled wide receivers was a major problem last year.
The team has made an effort to improve our receiving corps by adding Moss and Manningham.
Hopefully, these two additions will prove worthwhile, but even if they do there is no reason that the team should not strive to continue improving its receiver corp, particularly considering the possibility that these additions along with Crabtree and Williams might not fulfill their perceived potential.
While the statistical constructs, Defense-adjusted Value Over Average(DVOA) .and or Defense-adjusted Yards Above (DYAR), developed by Football Outsiders are valid analytical tools, they are no more than tools and not necessarily more valid than traditional constructs used by the NFL to rank players.
In the DYAR ranking, Larry Fitzgerald (rank # 11) is ranked below Laurent Robinson and Hakim Nicks. VJ (rank #14) is ranked below G. Jennings and Dez Bryant.
In the DVOA, rankings, Fitzgeral is ranked 31 and VJ is ranked 19.
Do these constructs really tell how well a player plays or a player's true comparative value? I would say not really.
Not using a first round pick to challenge Williams, Manningham, or Williams because of their rankings within Football Outsiders statistical frame works makes little if any sense.
First, these frame works do not include college players We can not use the system to contrast the potential of Kendall Wright with the potential of Kyle Williams.
Second, given the substantial differences between college and professional football cramming college statistics into the DVOA or DYAR would not function. Doing so simply would not meet the accepted standards of statistical validity.
I happen to think that Kendall Wright or Stephen Hill are worth a first round pick, even if their playing time next year is limited by the presence of Manningham and Moss.
[ Edited by buck on Mar 21, 2012 at 8:28 PM ]
Mar 21, 2012 at 9:55 PM
- FILTHpigskin
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- Posts: 2,530
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Actually, I agree with your post... I just think the condescending title & attitude was unnecessary.
But its true. Just like we're all spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks.
There's never a good reason to be condescending to make your point, because then you lose credibility and invite ridicule.
People won't focus on whether you're right or not, but how much of a d-bag they perceive you to be.
If you can't learn that, you'll never get your point across.
Mar 21, 2012 at 10:27 PM
- jacklegniner
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Originally posted by 9ersLiferInChicago:Wow! I literally disagree with everything you said. I guess we have a disagreement about what a starter means. The only players that are always on field would be Alex and the lineman. The wr's and Te's and Gore will all come out for breather's etc... or depending on what kind of formation you are running. If you are talking about where someone falls on the depth chart then VD would be the first TE and Walker is the 2nd. If we draft a good TE, then they would leap frog Walker on the depth chart and be the "starter" on the field when you run a 2 TE set which I'm guessing is somewhere around 50% of the time.
Originally posted by jacklegniner:The highlighted are bad premises. 1st, with Crabs, Moss, and Manningham on the roster (and as much as I want to see Crabs ass traded for picks) there is no way in hell we are going to use two TE's sets more than 3 WR sets this season. Just won't happen and I really think those days are over for us. 2nd, to say "A 2nd TE would be a starter from day one when we use the multiple TE formations" makes no sense because by definition the 2nd TE isn't a starter at all and, thus, has limited snaps. Lastly, to think that Stephan Hill wouldn't instantly upgrade our WR corp, won't at least compete for the #1 spot, or would not see the field ( )is just lunacy. All of that just to justify a luxury pick - yes, luxury because it's a position we don't need - in the first round?
Originally posted by Young2Rice:I think the 2 sides of the argument get confused on the schemes that we run. (WR TE XXXXX TE WR) - this is a 2 TE example and then just imagine a QB and RB behind the center X. If one Wr is Crabs and the Other is Mario, that still means Moss is the 3rd WR not on the field. If we draft a WR like Hill then he will be the 4th WR not on the field, at least in 2 TE sets. When he takes over for Moss the following year, Hill would be the 3rd WR not on the field unless he leap frogs Mannigham. If we go to a 3 WR set than Hill still wouldn't be on the field unless someone needed a breather. People say Fleener or another TE is a Luxury and it really isn't. A 2nd TE would be a starter from day one when we use the multiple TE formations which is alot in our offense. Even when we go to 3 WR sets it will be Crabs, Moss and Manningham so the drafted WR wouldn't be used until they leap frog one of the starter's.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted byI'm down with Fleener even more than previously. I think he would help tremendously with what ails this offense and that's reliable targets on 3rd down and in the red-zone. His strengths would also work well with Alex's weaknesses, namely Alex's tendency to lob the ball high at times, for fear of throwing a pass that might be intercepted. With his size and hands, Fleener can go up and get high passes or use his body to create separation. I think he'd be a reliable and constant target all over the field, literally from Day 1.
Scouts think Fleener is a Jimmy Graham Clone. Nah, we don't want that..we;ve got Walker!
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-0301-pompei-nfl--20120301,0,2606399.column
Its about need.
Do we really NEED to spend a first round pick on a #2 tight end? Even if he is as good as fleener, we have other needs then TE.
Delanie is a solid backup and VD is a stud.
maybe I'm confused at where we are getting hung up here... someone please explain!
Again, with the starter thing...Do you view Gronk as the starter for the Pats and Hernandez as the backup who doesn't see the field a lot. I think you get hung up on where people are drafted and that it has a value system. I, and I think others are saying that we want a 2nd TE to look like Gronk and Hernandez. I don't care if you call him a backup or if you think the pick is a luxury, the fact of the matter is that Gronk put up 90 receptions for 1327 yards and 17 TD's...and Hernandez the "backup" "non-starter" put up 79 rec. for 910 yards and 7 Td's. If Fleener or any other TE can put up those numbers for us then YES I would absolutely give up my 1st rounder for them.
And Stephen Hill can be a great pickup but no I don't hink he will contend for our #1 spot. Maybe he will get there throughout the season but if he does than he would have to work his way past Moss, then Mario and then Crabs. WR's take some time to develop. Hopefully we will be one of those teams that strikes it rich and finds the wr that transitions fairly easily but I doubt it.
Mar 21, 2012 at 10:59 PM
- flow
- Veteran
- Posts: 2,395
Crabtree hurts Smith more than Smith hurts Crabtree. Thank goodness we now have Moss and Manningham.
[ Edited by flow on Mar 21, 2012 at 11:03 PM ]
Mar 21, 2012 at 11:13 PM
- BillWalsh
- Veteran
- Posts: 181
What people fail to understand is Crabtree's 874 yard season on our team that threw for just over 3000 yards would be a 1300 to 1400 yard season on a team that throws for 5000 yards. Crabtree = number 1 reciever. I think he has 1100 yards or more next year if healthy.
Mar 21, 2012 at 11:22 PM
- 602_JamestownAve
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Walker is a great blocker but has a bad habit of being careless with the ball before and after catching it. Something like that I'm sure is not missed by Harbaugh and the staff which could be why Walker isn't as actively involved as he could be as a receiver.
[ Edited by 602_JamestownAve on Mar 22, 2012 at 2:38 AM ]
Mar 22, 2012 at 12:28 AM
- 80sbaby24
- Member
- Posts: 2,990
dbl post
[ Edited by 80sbaby24 on Mar 22, 2012 at 12:29 AM ]
Mar 22, 2012 at 12:28 AM
- 80sbaby24
- Member
- Posts: 2,990
Originally posted by flow:
Crabtree hurts Smith more than Smith hurts Crabtree.
Laughable statement. The Browns game alone, Alex's errant throws cost Crabtree at least two touchdowns (three according to Eric Davis' analysis).
Mar 22, 2012 at 12:38 AM
- longtime49erfan
- Veteran
- Posts: 663
Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:On the other hand, if people are focused more on the "tone" of the statement than the truth of the statement, then those same people are both fickle and hypocritical, because they really don't care about the issue raised; they would rather discount the truth (or lack) of the initial statement than address it honestly and directly.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by FILTHpigskin:
Actually, I agree with your post... I just think the condescending title & attitude was unnecessary.
But its true. Just like we're all spoiled when it comes to quarterbacks.
There's never a good reason to be condescending to make your point, because then you lose credibility and invite ridicule.
People won't focus on whether you're right or not, but how much of a d-bag they perceive you to be.
If you can't learn that, you'll never get your point across.
I'm not sure the OP ought to care about what people like that think, especially if the OP genuinely believes that most 49er fans do not understand how to evaluate wide receivers (I am not saying I believe it but I do think it is worthy of discussion and debate, at the very least).
In that case, he is only stating what he believes to be true, and if people get upset at hearing the truth... well, that's just too bad! Speaking what you believe to be true is never condescending, even if some people take it that way. Content of expression is far more important than the tone in which it is delivered (though I'll also admit there are ways to make a message more palatable; even so, that ought not be the determining factor as to whether or not the message is heard).
[ Edited by longtime49erfan on Mar 22, 2012 at 12:45 AM ]
Mar 22, 2012 at 12:48 AM
- BubbaParisMVP
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This is why I really dislike trying to apply sabermetrics to football. There's just too much signal to noise ratio.
Mar 22, 2012 at 2:13 AM
- BayArea
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Yeah Walker isn't that great. I still have a warm place in my heart though because he made that catch vs the lions and slid into the end zone keeping that knee a centimeter above the ground. I will always love him for that catch.
I agree with the rest, but crabs also needs to work on getting open. He has good hands if he can get open...
I agree with the rest, but crabs also needs to work on getting open. He has good hands if he can get open...