Originally posted by hofer36:
Originally posted by johnnyredneat:
So far, the public agrees with you. 91% of the money is on the niners. Obviously this is very early, but this line's gonna move and soon.
(Of course, being on the public side is often not the smart place to be. But -3.5 seems pretty crazy. The Cards beat Dallas only because Dallas choked it away worse that the game we choked away to them.)
if i understand the concept behind a point spread, it is not necessarily an evaluation of the relative strengths of the two teams, though that is a big factor underlying the spread...rather it is more the number that the books think will bring an eqal amount of action on both sides...they want to middle the bets as they make their oney on the vig, which is the take they keep on each bet
also the home team had a 3 point factor just for being the home team
any degenerate gamblers out there can correct my understanding if im wrong
You are right...almost all the time. Vegas typically likes equal action on both sides of the line. But there are times that Vegas absolutely will maintain a line towards one team even if the action is lopsided, if they see a possibility for "sucker" action. (Usually those types of sucker lines are at 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5, etc. - for obvious reasons.) Vegas likes to do this with public teams (teams the public typically likes): NE, Dallas, Indy (w/ Manning), and Pittsburgh are classic "public" teams.
Example: Week 9, SF@WAS. SF was -3.5 for almost the whole week. Skins looked dreadful, John Beck was the starter, Santana Moss was out, etc. About 90% of the action was coming in on SF. But Vegas held the line at -3.5 almost the whole week.. Clearly the sharps thought they were seeing something the public didn't.
Of course SF covered easily, and Vegas took a bath. So screw 'em.