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Smith + Crabtree = disaster (statistical proof)

Interesting


Who would have thought Michael Crabtree's strained neck would cause Alex Smith so much pain?

After Crabtree missed most of training camp with his injury, his connection with his quarterback has been crippled in the season's first three games.

In fact, the numbers are stunning.

On Smith's 19 passes targeted at Crabtree, he has six completions for 81 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Quarterback rating: 6.6.
On Smith's 100 passes targeted at other receivers, he has 66 completions for 651 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Quarterback rating: 86.7.

In other words, throwing to No. 15 has cost Smith, who has a 66.2 rating, about 20 points.

It's been assumed that Crabtree is one of the "playmakers" the Niners will want to do a better job of "getting into open space" under Mike Johnson. Not saying that's a mistake - it's clear Crabtree has Pro-Bowl potential - but it's worth monitoring how much longer it takes Smith and the second-year wideout to get on the same page.

Here's a look at Smith's numbers when targeting Niners receivers this season (minimum 5 targets):

To WR Josh Morgan
Smith: 10 of 17, 114 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 98.7

To TE Delanie Walker
Smith: 6 of 8, 59 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 95.3

To RB Frank Gore
Smith: 22 of 29, 203 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
QB Rating: 91.6

To TE Vernon Davis
Smith: 15 of 25, 173 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 80.9

To WR Dominique Zeigler
Smith: 5 of 8, 50 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 80.2

To WR Michael Crabtree
Smith: 6 of 19, 81 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT
QB Rating: 6.6

And, absolutely free today, Smith's numbers when targeting running backs, tight ends and wide receivers. :

To RBs
Smith: 26 of 35, 216 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
QB Rating: 87.3

To TEs
Smith: 24 of 36, 252 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 86.8

To WRs
Smith: 22 of 46, 264 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT
QB Rating: 36.9
Smith = DISASTER!

The statistical proof is the last FIVE YEARS OF WRETCHED FOOTBALL!

Jeeze Louise!
drafting Alex Smith = disaster

/end thread.
smh at the first two responses. I could have bet on a handful of posters who would post the same f**king dumbf**king comment "alex smith = disaster" and bigmike + billbird would have been one of the few I would have listed.

Very original. Nice job guys.
Originally posted by Method:
smh at the first two responses. I could have bet on a handful of posters who would post the same f**king dumbf**king comment "alex smith = disaster" and bigmike + billbird would have been one of the few I would have listed.

Very original. Nice job guys.

Always looking out for your interests big fella

I'm only so very happy to thoroughly disappoint you.
Originally posted by Method:
smh at the first two responses. I could have bet on a handful of posters who would post the same f**king dumbf**king comment "alex smith = disaster" and bigmike + billbird would have been one of the few I would have listed.

Very original. Nice job guys.

They're quality posters. Always adding something unique and worthy to the conversation.
[ Edited by OregonNiner87 on Sep 30, 2010 at 6:45 PM ]
Also 4 out of 5 INTs Alex has throw this season have had Crabtree as the target
Originally posted by OregonNiner87:
Originally posted by Method:
smh at the first two responses. I could have bet on a handful of posters who would post the same f**king dumbf**king comment "alex smith = disaster" and bigmike + billbird would have been one of the few I would have listed.

Very original. Nice job guys.

They're quality posters. Always adding something unique and worthy to the conversation.

Regardless about how anyone feels about Smith, that was some pretty good reporting that actually deserves some decent discussion. Branch is getting off to an impressive start.
Originally posted by global_nomad:
Also 4 out of 5 INTs Alex has throw this season have had Crabtree as the target

Yikes...I didn't know that, that's bad.
Man what we need to do is get Vernon Davis up an running. I had to wait til right before half time for him to catch his first pass!!!
Originally posted by BHulman:
Originally posted by OregonNiner87:
Originally posted by Method:
smh at the first two responses. I could have bet on a handful of posters who would post the same f**king dumbf**king comment "alex smith = disaster" and bigmike + billbird would have been one of the few I would have listed.

Very original. Nice job guys.

They're quality posters. Always adding something unique and worthy to the conversation.

Regardless about how anyone feels about Smith, that was some pretty good reporting that actually deserves some decent discussion. Branch is getting off to an impressive start.


agreed very goon indepth post

it shows at the other WR and TE have good completition % it has to be crabtree plain and simple

hopefully he comes to TC and plays in preseason in the future
Originally posted by Jabuke:
Originally posted by global_nomad:
Also 4 out of 5 INTs Alex has throw this season have had Crabtree as the target

Yikes...I didn't know that, that's bad.

Matt Barrows of the SacBee says so so I believe him
Wow, you guys crack me up with your blind hatred for Smith. The stats are right there in front of you, but you keep blaming Smith.

Smith throwing to Morgan : 10 of 17, 114 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 98.7

Smith throwing to Walker : 6 of 8, 59 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 95.3

Smith throwing the VD : 15 of 25, 173 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 80.9

Smitht throwing to Gore : 22 of 29, 203 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
QB Rating: 91.6

Smith throwing to Z : 5 of 8, 50 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB Rating: 80.2

Smith throwing to Crabtree : 6 of 19, 81 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT
QB Rating: 6.6


I didn't read these stats and say, "See I told you, Smith is garbage".
I read these stats and said, "Man, I wish Crabtree would've played a little in preseason".
Smith and Crabtree obviously are NOT on the same page here. Smith's QB rating is pretty decent when throwing to ANYONE other than Crabtree.

Don't get it twisted, I'm not a Alex fanboy. But I'm not a hater either. It's painfully obvious that Crabtree is simply not prepared to play. Rather it's running the wrong pattern or making the wrong adjustment to the covering CB, Crabs play is clearly unacceptable.

I'd like to think that with Johnson calling the plays, maybe Crabtree will come around. I get the feeling that the offense has had a "why bother, we can't win with these playcalls anyway" mentallity, including Crabtree. There is hope now that Raye is gone. Hopefully we'll see the offense play with a little more confidence and attitude, including Crabtree.
When crabtree gets his hands on the ball, I see a dynamic player...But the interceptions he seemed clueless whats going on...he slips way too much,

I've certainly lost my pre-season positivity with this team
If Alex Smith would just hit Crabtree in stride, between the numbers, this clearly wouldn't be an issue.