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Realistic Expectations for this season

We lead the league in rushing in preseason
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 21,053
Originally posted by AKfanster:
I had predicted 8-8 this season, but after watching the last couple of pre-season games I'm thinking 8 wins is a bit much.

We all know about the horrible pass rush, but the o-line's horrible pass blocking was kinda of a surprise. Can the QB get 3 seconds, just 3 seconds before having to run for his life? It's gonna be 07 all over again if Raye doesn't get this figured out.

Don't judge the OL by the Dallas game. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They will make a lot of OLs look bad this season. Also Snyder and Baas were both out of the lineup.
Here is a game improvement index i use to attempt to calculate a team's improved standing from last year ..(7-9) ...Adding the Index up I have an improvement of 1.1 games meaning a forecast of 8.1 or an 8-8 Season irrespective of schedule. A strong schedule and/or key injuries would detract from the rating.

The biggest improvement the Niners have made is the Coffee backup for Gore. This looks like the best pair of HB the Niners have had in a long time. Add Sheets to the mix with his speed and this could be the best ever for the team given time to develop.

Offense +.95 broken down as:
QB a full yr of Hill...healed finger and no 7 step drops = +.5
RB Much improved depth behind Gore/Norris back...+.25
OL Picking up where they left off last year = +.1
WR Same as last year unless Jones can impact on his return
TE If Raye develops/used Davis then = +.1
Offensive coordinator: Has a strong running game and limited QB

Defense +.65
NT An improved Franklin picking up from last yr...+.05
DE Improved Balmer? McDonald 2nd yr improvement? +0.05
OLB Harlyson fullyr instead of 1/2..but still Manny.... even
ILB Willis and Spikes....even
CB Clements and Brown or Bly...Spencer and Green backups +.05
SS Mark Lewis with Reggie Smith backup?
FS Goldshon + over Roman
Defensive coordinator Full yr for Manusky w.o. Nolan +.5

Special Teams -0.5
They have looked worse in preseason...-0.5
Originally posted by BrodieWins:
Here is a game improvement index i use to attempt to calculate a team's improved standing from last year ..(7-9) ...Adding the Index up I have an improvement of 1.1 games meaning a forecast of 8.1 or an 8-8 Season irrespective of schedule. A strong schedule and/or key injuries would detract from the rating.

The biggest improvement the Niners have made is the Coffee backup for Gore. This looks like the best pair of HB the Niners have had in a long time. Add Sheets to the mix with his speed and this could be the best ever for the team given time to develop.

Offense +.95 broken down as:
QB a full yr of Hill...healed finger and no 7 step drops = +.5
RB Much improved depth behind Gore/Norris back...+.25
OL Picking up where they left off last year = +.1
WR Same as last year unless Jones can impact on his return
TE If Raye develops/used Davis then = +.1
Offensive coordinator: Has a strong running game and limited QB

Defense +.65
NT An improved Franklin picking up from last yr...+.05
DE Improved Balmer? McDonald 2nd yr improvement? +0.05
OLB Harlyson fullyr instead of 1/2..but still Manny.... even
ILB Willis and Spikes....even
CB Clements and Brown or Bly...Spencer and Green backups +.05
SS Mark Lewis with Reggie Smith backup?
FS Goldshon + over Roman
Defensive coordinator Full yr for Manusky w.o. Nolan +.5

Special Teams -0.5
They have looked worse in preseason...-0.5

I like your system. Far too few zoners start with last season and make a realistic analysis of our additions and departures.
Article is a couple years old but still relevant.

********************

When it comes to the National Football League, you will rarely see the words important and preseason in the same sentence. Although the N.F.L. tries to promote the significance of the preseason, only the most casual fan believes that those games have any impact on the regular season.

Last year, the Indianapolis Colts were 0-5 in the preseason, then won the first 13 games of the regular season. Kansas City, which went 0-4, just missed the playoffs with a 10-6 record. Of the nine teams that finished the preseason 3-1 or 4-1, seven did not reach the playoffs, including four that were coming off playoff seasons (St. Louis, Minnesota, Atlanta and the Jets).

Despite those results, the preseason can be an indicator of how well teams will do in the regular season, if the sample is limited.

The key, according to research by the Web site TwoMinuteWarning.com, is to look only at average teams -- that is, those with seven to nine victories in the previous season. From the 1996 to the 2004 seasons, 96 teams fit that description. The next year, 29 of these teams won fewer than two preseason games, and they went on to average 6.7 wins in the regular season. The 23 of those teams that won three preseason games followed with an average of 8.8 wins in the regular season, and the 11 that went undefeated in the preseason finished with an average of 9.9 wins.

When TwoMinuteWarning.com published this research before the 2003 season, it drew attention to two teams that went undefeated in the preseason after average won-lost records in 2002. Those teams, New England and Carolina, went on to meet in the Super Bowl.

But there have been exceptions. Two teams that won seven to nine games in the 1999 season met in the Super Bowl the next season. Baltimore went undefeated in the 2000 preseason, while the Giants did not win a game. But other than the Chiefs and the Colts last season, the Giants are the only team since 1999 to win at least 10 games after a winless preseason.

For teams coming off good or bad seasons from 1996 to 2004, the preseason has much less value as an indicator. Those with winning preseason records average half a win more than those with losing preseason records.

A second preseason indicator is more limited. A study by the researcher Patrick Allison showed that the score of the first regular-season game between division rivals will help predict the outcome of the second. With this in mind, Allison looked only at preseason games from 2000 to 2005 between teams that also met again in the regular season. He also looked only at the first half of these preseason games, when the first- and second-stringers were most likely on the field.

Allison's study showed a significant correlation between the score at halftime of the preseason game and the final score of the regular-season rematch. In fact, the halftime score of a preseason game predicts the result of a regular-season rematch better than the final score of a regular-season game between division opponents will predict the result of their second meeting. Over the past four years, there were 24 of these preseason games in which a team led by at least 7 points at halftime. In 17 of those cases, the team leading the preseason game at halftime also won the regular-season matchup against the same opponent. There are 12 pairings in the coming preseason that will be repeated in the regular season. That is a relatively large number because the American and National Football Conference West teams tend to schedule each other in the preseason to cut down on travel costs, and those divisions will also face off during this regular season.

**************

All this being said, we could be in a bit of trouble. I'm not a proponent of gauging much based on preseason, but the article makes a good point about preseason halftime scores. Good thing we don't play Dallas in the regular season.

[ Edited by AXEGRINDER on Aug 31, 2009 at 17:08:11 ]
8-8
Personally I have always been able to take away a lot from preseason games. The score is meaningless if you ask me.....but I can always identify when a team is READY to play tomorrow.

IMO

Great teams - can start a season in August and start HOT, pre-season is completely unneccessary. Watch the first 5 mins, notice some teams score a TD and force a 3 and out in some or all their ps games...these are the teams to beat in the upcoming campaign

Good teams - greatly benefit from pre season because they could have had a bad start without it, they were able to make some last ditch fixes and changes

Poor teams - it is purely futile, they are no closer to having a good season but from a building point of view it is helpful for long term player decison making

Regardless of scores and stats, a educated fan should be able to tell the difference between the teams who would be better off if the season started yesterday and the teams who quite frankly need this slow walk to the starting gate

[ Edited by danimal on Aug 31, 2009 at 17:17:08 ]
This stat sums it up for our season...

-With only one sack in 97 pass plays, how will the 49ers will manage to stop the Cardinals' or Seahawks' pass attacks?-

Understood it's only the preseason and I know we don't game plan but this just shows the lack of talent we have on the defensive side of the ball..

Take into account, shoddy pass protection and mediocure QB play and sub-par WR play. This all makes for a loooong dissapointing season.. 7-9 more likely 6-10.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by AKfanster:
I had predicted 8-8 this season, but after watching the last couple of pre-season games I'm thinking 8 wins is a bit much.

We all know about the horrible pass rush, but the o-line's horrible pass blocking was kinda of a surprise. Can the QB get 3 seconds, just 3 seconds before having to run for his life? It's gonna be 07 all over again if Raye doesn't get this figured out.

Don't judge the OL by the Dallas game. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They will make a lot of OLs look bad this season. Also Snyder and Baas were both out of the lineup.



Ya, I know....... but man they looked SO bad.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by AKfanster:
I had predicted 8-8 this season, but after watching the last couple of pre-season games I'm thinking 8 wins is a bit much.

We all know about the horrible pass rush, but the o-line's horrible pass blocking was kinda of a surprise. Can the QB get 3 seconds, just 3 seconds before having to run for his life? It's gonna be 07 all over again if Raye doesn't get this figured out.

Don't judge the OL by the Dallas game. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They will make a lot of OLs look bad this season. Also Snyder and Baas were both out of the lineup.

Was Baas in any preseason games? I think he hurt his pinkie in the nutcracker.

[ Edited by nvninerfan1 on Aug 31, 2009 at 18:27:42 ]
Originally posted by BrodieWins:
Here is a game improvement index i use to attempt to calculate a team's improved standing from last year ..(7-9) ...Adding the Index up I have an improvement of 1.1 games meaning a forecast of 8.1 or an 8-8 Season irrespective of schedule. A strong schedule and/or key injuries would detract from the rating.

The biggest improvement the Niners have made is the Coffee backup for Gore. This looks like the best pair of HB the Niners have had in a long time. Add Sheets to the mix with his speed and this could be the best ever for the team given time to develop.

Offense +.95 broken down as:
QB a full yr of Hill...healed finger and no 7 step drops = +.5
RB Much improved depth behind Gore/Norris back...+.25
OL Picking up where they left off last year = +.1
WR Same as last year unless Jones can impact on his return
TE If Raye develops/used Davis then = +.1
Offensive coordinator: Has a strong running game and limited QB

Defense +.65
NT An improved Franklin picking up from last yr...+.05
DE Improved Balmer? McDonald 2nd yr improvement? +0.05
OLB Harlyson fullyr instead of 1/2..but still Manny.... even
ILB Willis and Spikes....even
CB Clements and Brown or Bly...Spencer and Green backups +.05
SS Mark Lewis with Reggie Smith backup?
FS Goldshon + over Roman
Defensive coordinator Full yr for Manusky w.o. Nolan +.5

Special Teams -0.5
They have looked worse in preseason...-0.5


Do you have some magic potient I can buy as well?
I hope we come out strong on defense & offense week 1.
Realistic...

Between 4 and 7 wins
Interesting stat that I read in one of the rags....

Of the 58 points the 49ers scored in preseason, 15 were scored when the starting lineup was in.

No matter what anyone says about preseason, that HAS to be a alarming statistic.
Originally posted by dj43:
Originally posted by AKfanster:
I had predicted 8-8 this season, but after watching the last couple of pre-season games I'm thinking 8 wins is a bit much.

We all know about the horrible pass rush, but the o-line's horrible pass blocking was kinda of a surprise. Can the QB get 3 seconds, just 3 seconds before having to run for his life? It's gonna be 07 all over again if Raye doesn't get this figured out.

Don't judge the OL by the Dallas game. The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league. They will make a lot of OLs look bad this season. Also Snyder and Baas were both out of the lineup.

Good points. I do have some major question marks heading into the season:

1. Medical Staff - how many times have we drafted a player and/or brought in key FA's and couldn't assess the health of players (see Alex Smith, Jonas Jennings, Marvel Smith, Michael Lewis, etc.). I think it's time to get a whole new staff Niners! What's sad is that when we signed Jonas, we all went to their fan boards and they told us to a T what we had. How can a professional medical staff not have that inside knowledge?
2. Pass protection - our o-line is suspect. They are terrible in pass protection and have caused both Smith/Hill to play in panic mode. They need to be able to sit back there with confidence and grow in their confidence. Without great pass protection, they will never develop consistency with ANY WR save for the TE & RB on dump-offs. This line appears to be solid in run blocking but fails miserably in short yardage and to me, this defines your o & d-lines.
3. Pass rush - when your entire 3-4 is banking on Manny Lawson instead of upgrading the NT position, you're in trouble. It'll be a long year for the secondary. Good thing we've got a lot of depth b/c there will be fatigue injuries.
4. Play-calling - I am very curious to see if Manusky continues to call vanilla defenses, if on offense, Raye will be just as vanilla and Singletary blows it using proper TO's, play reviews, etc.
5. Injuries - they've already happened to key player and they will happen again. Do we really have the depth? Injuries tend to happen more to teams that play on their heels. That is our team to date.
6. Schedule/away-games - we've got a pretty tough schedule and one thing (like the SF Giants) that has always stood out for me is that we're a terrible away-team. Can Singletary turn this around?
7. Management - are the constant changes in coaches (esp. the OC's), poor drafting (save for late round picks) and non-looks at key FA's going to catch up to us this year like they do every year? Keep in mind, this may be the worst offseason ever...we added ZERO starting draft picks to an inflated 7-9 team (including bad press withy Crabtree), two of the three key FA's we brought in are either hurt or retired and one may be beat out by Brown (Bly). So, in short, we did not add a dominant NT, proven pass rusher at the OLB positions and are now banking on Snyder at RT. So did we improve or regress? Did we only add depth? While our 2nd-4th stringers look better then most teams, did we improve our #1's at all?

These are my key concerns. Hopefully many of these can be rectified before the season but for now, these are the major concerns I have going into the season in order for us to have anything better then a 7-9 or 8-8 season and a shot at the playoffs.