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Arguments for Alex Smith and Shaun Hill to Start

Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
Originally posted by lamontb:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
There are a couple of things I disagree within your writeup... Please don't take these as Pro Smith or Pro Hill comments. These are just facts about both players...

You had Said Smith hasn't came in off the bench since he came to the NFL, when in fact he did that his rookie year.

You said the limited passing game would be better for Hill... In fact Smith averages 20 attempts per start where Hill averages 36. This contradicts what you wrote.

As for opening up the O... Hill has proven he has the ability to get the team in for the TD (averaging 2 TD's per start). Smith (where we all hope he is better then ever) has struggled. He's only averaged 1 TD for every 2 starts.

Overall good writeup....

That's not contradicting anything thoush. Hill averaged those attempts b/c of the Martz system which Smith never played under. Plus just b/c Hill has more attempts that doesn't mean he wouldn't excel if he had fewer attempts, or vice versa.

Look, I'm just presenting the facts... I can't help who Hill played under and Smith didn't. If you want it broken down more, I can do that for ya...

Hill under Martz = 32 attempts average with 62.8% completions.
Hill under Hos = 26 attempts average with 68.4% completions.

Smith under Hos = 28 attempts average with 48.7% completions.
Smith under Norv = 28 attempts average with 58.1% completions.
Smith under McCarthy = 18 attempts average with 50.9% completions

The contradiction to his statement is when he stated that the lower pass attempts #s would favor Hill. The facts say that Hill is more than competent (just as Smith is) to throw for 30-40 attempts in a game. If higher attempts per game favors either QB, I would think it's slightly in Hill's favor because of the completion %...

But it's not a contradiction to say that a guy would be better with fewer attempts, just b/c he averages a couple more attempts a game. And looking at those numbers posted that really isn't any significant difference in attempts. Plus attempts doesn't represent success. It's just like saying the Lakers are a better team when Kobe only has to take 15-17 shots while he's averaging 30 shots a game. Doesn't mean Kobe isn't capable of still getting the team wins when taking a lot of shots, but that it would be more beneficial to his game and the teams overall game if he took less shots. Of course Hill isn't on a Kobe level. I just don't think he meant that Hill can't get it done, but it would be better and more beneficial if the offense was more controlled with less throwing. But he wrote it so i can't say exactly what he meant that's just how I took it. I don't see it as a knock or a contradictory statement.

Thinking about it, contradiction was the wrong word. I would say it's more of a logic discrepancy...

I agree that it probably wasn't said as a knock against Hill. I just think the facts show that Hill is capable of a 30+ pass per game season just as he is a 20 - 25 season. I think the lower pass #s typically equal more of a vertical game which is more towards Smith's strengths and the higher pass #s typically equal a shorter passing game which Hill is better at...

So IMO 20-25 attempts (vertical) is more towards Smith's strengths and 30-35 (short) is more towards Hill's.
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by D_Niner:
There are a couple of things I disagree within your writeup... Please don't take these as Pro Smith or Pro Hill comments. These are just facts about both players...

You had Said Smith hasn't came in off the bench since he came to the NFL, when in fact he did that his rookie year.

You said the limited passing game would be better for Hill... In fact Smith averages 20 attempts per start where Hill averages 36. This contradicts what you wrote.

As for opening up the O... Hill has proven he has the ability to get the team in for the TD (averaging 2 TD's per start). Smith (where we all hope he is better then ever) has struggled. He's only averaged 1 TD for every 2 starts.

Overall good writeup....

Thanks for the response. Smith did indeed sit as a backup the first four games of 2005 to Tim Rattay, played the next two games, sat with injuries the next five, and then finished the last five games of the season. He did spot backup duty two of the first four games. So, he did sit the first month of his career. Thanks for the correction.

As for attempts per game, Hill threw 32 times per game in 2008 (under pass-happy Martz), considerably less in 2007, with 26.3 attempts per game. I think the Niners will even be more conservative under Hill than in 2007. Hence, the 20-25 throws per game for Hill.

As for Smith averaging fewer throws per start in his career, your numbers are somewhat off (I've listed the numbers below). The Niners brought him along slowly as a rookie in 2005 (22 throws/game as a starter); Norv Turner's power rushing game in 2006 (about 27.5 throws/game); the injury year in 2007 about the same (27.7 throws game). I think the older version of Smith will finally be free to throw the ball more often, and I expect something near 30 passes/game (the kiddie wheels will surely be kicked out from the bike).

It will surely be fun to watch, either way it works out.

I just see it as Smith is better at the deep ball than Hill and has been less accurate at the shorter stuff... It takes a lot less deep passes to move down the field than it does short ones; therefore, if Alex is the QB and is completing longer passes then he will have less attempts per game.

If Hill is the QB, he may make a couple long passes now and then to keep teams honest, but I see us using more of a ball control clock killing O. This would work out to a lot of short accurate passes which is more towards Hill's strengths; but, also increase the number of attempts per game.

One thing we all can agree on is that we can't wait to see it all unfold.

Go Niners!
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

[ Edited by NinerGM on Jun 25, 2009 at 11:18:34 ]
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

But Smith has also did one thing that Shaun Hill didn't do and Ken Dorsey also did....was get us shut out.
Originally posted by AiNoKea:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

But Smith has also did one thing that Shaun Hill didn't do and Ken Dorsey also did....was get us shut out.

That's true - shut out in OCTOBER/(early)NOVEMBER and SEPTEMBER.

[ Edited by NinerGM on Jun 25, 2009 at 11:27:39 ]
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

Posts like these i don't understand. Hill wins, and people say he beats a bunch of "nobody" teams and he suX. I wonder what you guys would have to say if he lost all those games. The horror!!
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

Posts like these i don't understand. Hill wins, and people say he beats a bunch of "nobody" teams and he suX. I wonder what you guys would have to say if he lost all those games. The horror!!

I'll explain.

Hill wins. Smith loses.

It's statements like these that are ridiculously over-simplified and skewed to make Hill significantly better than Smith. I like Hill. I like Smith, but if Hill were already significantly better, there wouldn't be a QB competition this year. Obviously the simple view isn't so simple, nor has been proven beyond all doubt.

I'm not saying Hill sucks. Those are YOUR words NOT MINE.

Yes Hill wins. Yes Smith loses.

But, Yes Hill wins WHEN and WHY? Yes Smith loses WHEN and WHY? Those are as important to the argument/question as the over-simplified, 49ers QB for Dummies version above.
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by XAnGeLicDiAbLoX:
Originally posted by Apples:
Shaun Hill: wins games

Shaun hill: Needs no excuses.

Against teams with nothing to play for except for ONE (a fading Jets team).

I'll shut up when Hill beats a division opponent in SEPTEMBER or OCTOBER. Beat the Vikings in OCTOBER and I'll be stop doubting. Smith has done one thing Hill has NOT - knocked a playoff team out of contention in a MUST-WIN, LAST GAME of the season.

Posts like these i don't understand. Hill wins, and people say he beats a bunch of "nobody" teams and he suX. I wonder what you guys would have to say if he lost all those games. The horror!!

I'll explain.

Hill wins. Smith loses.

It's statements like these that are ridiculously over-simplified and skewed to make Hill significantly better than Smith. I like Hill. I like Smith, but if Hill were already significantly better, there wouldn't be a QB competition this year. Obviously the simple view isn't so simple, nor has been proven beyond all doubt.

I'm not saying Hill sucks. Those are YOUR words NOT MINE.

Yes Hill wins. Yes Smith loses.

But, Yes Hill wins WHEN and WHY? Yes Smith loses WHEN and WHY? Those are as important to the argument/question as the over-simplified, 49ers QB for Dummies version above.

Riiiiight........I guess the way i look at it is it's been horrible the past couple of years in 49er world that i'm just happy we get any W's at all.
  • fan49
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k

[ Edited by fan49 on Jun 25, 2009 at 12:21:41 ]
  • fan49
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:


Bold 2010 Prediction: There will not be a QB controversy for the Niners in 2010. Either Hill will show that he is a starter in this league, or not. Smith will show that he is a stable franchise QB to build a team around. Or, the Niners will target a QB in free agency or the draft, to start right away.

Cheers.

i think they might already have this on the team if smith or hill cant get it done. davis is no slouch.
Unlocked now
I want to see Smith in a game situation first. Right now it is just guesswork and prejudice.
don't care if you alex smith or shaun hill supporter, its obvious who the starter is going to be and thats shaun hill.