First, let's take a look at the QBs that led their teams to the playoffs this past season:
- Over 80% of the playoff teams originally drafted their QBs; Manning and Schaub were acquired via free agency and trade, respectively.
- 50% of the playoff teams' staring QBs have 3 or less years of experience in the NFL.
- Of these six, 3 of them were picked AFTER the 1st round.
I think what we are going to see is new head coaches are going to pick "their guy" in the draft instead of giving up a 3rd or 4th round pick for a veteran QB like Matt Flynn or Alex Smith. Both of them became backups after getting unseated by young QB prospects that were 2nd-3rd round picks.
But, there are a few teams that have tried and failed in finding the right QB - Chiefs, Cardinals, Browns, and Jaguars. And there's one team that should be looking for an upgrade at QB - Vikings.
Andy Reid, Bruce Arians, and Leslie Frazier are three head coaches that need smart QBs that can help usher their teams to the next level.
Here's how I'd rank the best fit for Alex Smith:
- If you bolster their offensive line, Alex Smith will be successful and have plenty of weapons to utilize in Arizona. Floyd and Fitz could become the next Falcons White and Jones combo. Great decision making skills and accurate short and medium range throws, Smith could thrive under Arians system.
But would the 49ers trade him to a division rival? Maybe for a 2nd round pick at the least.
- Add some weapons at WR, and you'll have a fully functioning offense for Alex Smith to step in and succeed. More of a power offense, the Vikings still run a variation of the WCO - Bill Musgrave has 49ers ties.
But Mike Singletary is very close to Leslie Frazier, and he shat on him during and after his tenure with the 49ers.
- They may be losing some key pieces this offseason, and who knows what their mental state will be after the death of one of their teammates. Andy Reid needs a smart QB behind center - McNaab and Vick took too many risks and made too many dumb mistakes. I don't think they'll be playoff bound in a year, but year 2 or year 3, they should be competitive.
Prediction: Chiefs select BPA and not QB in the draft, and trade for Alex Smith.
[ Edited by GEEK on Jan 23, 2013 at 6:19 PM ]