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2012 NFL betting thread

Niners -10 :)

Colts +6.5 at home against GB
i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.
Originally posted by pdizo916:
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.

They will give up on run early and our base D/prevent will give up yards in middle of field during 2nd half
Originally posted by pdizo916:
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.

Most of that coming in the 4th quarter.
Originally posted by Knowledge:
i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2

looking good so far
Originally posted by Knowledge:
Originally posted by Knowledge:
i teased Packers to -1 and Giants to -2

looking good so far

f**king Packers
Originally posted by pdizo916:
i bet all my monies that fitzpatrick will throw for 300+ yards against us.

lmao!!!
49ers are -5 against NYG
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
49ers are -5 against NYG

that line tells me a easy Niners win
Originally posted by Knowledge:
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
49ers are -5 against NYG

that line tells me a easy Niners win

I hope so, but I don't bet on my own team, especially since the history behind teams that have CRUSHED teams the way te Niners have the last 2 wins does not Bode well for the niners.


#1Posted: 10/9/2012 6:39:38 PM
Guys - 

Long time viewer but I don't play/post often. I'm a numbers guy and remember key angles that I think can provide an edge. A few years back I remember the poster MrBator who posted a trend of teams who win back to back games by scoring 30+ points and while also allowing less than 10 points. This is hard to do two games in a row much less 3 games in a row! After doing this twice, in their third game these teams have significantly failed to cover at a staggering rate. Credit goes to Mr. Bator's old post (scroll to the bottom) for this history starting from 1999 - 2009. Teams in this situation went 3-14-1 ATS during this time period.

I did some digging to see how this worked in 2010 and 2011 and have the following additional games:

In 2010 the Green Bay Packers beat the Cowboys 45-7 then beat the Vikings 31-3. There was a bye week sandwiched between those games but their next game they lost to Atlanta 20-17. This was a push as Atlanta was a 3 point favorite. 

In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the NY Jets 45-3 then beat the Bears 36-7. Their next game they beat the Aaron Rodgers less Packers 31-27 but didn't cover the 14 point line. 

In 2010 the San Diego Chargers beat the Chiefs 31-0 then beat the 49ers 34-7. Their next game they lost SU as an 8 point favorite to the Bengals who had nothing to play for 34-20. 

In 2010 the New England Patriots beat the Bill 34-3 then beat the Dolphins 38-7 to close out the season. Their next game was the divisional round of the playoffs where they lost SU as a 9 point favorite to the NY Jets 28-21. 

I didn't find any such scenarios in 2011. 

All said with the research of Mr. Bator combined with the 2010 additions teams are 3-17-2 ATS given this criteria. 

Why am I posting this now? Two weeks ago the 49ers beat the Jets 34-0 and followed that up last week with a 45-3 blowout of the Bills. No doubt that they are playing great ball and they have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time but as a 5.5 point dog I am loading up on the Giants this week.  

BOL to you guys and if you are out there MrBator thank you for your past write-ups they have been very helpful!
Damn, system bet against the Niners last week comes through unfortunately.

Sf -7.5.... Pretty big spread against a scrappy Seattle
Originally posted by blizzuntz:
Damn, system bet against the Niners last week comes through unfortunately.

Sf -7.5.... Pretty big spread against a scrappy Seattle

I hate this spread !!!!!!!!!
We didn't cover more than 2 points last year .

Taking away the Ginn returns in game 1, we won 19-17 both times
We need to get this as an Official Pin!!!!! It's about time we got a thread started...can't believe I haven't thought of this years ago!!