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2011-2012 SUPERBOWL THREAD

Some dude won 50 grand because he put a g down on the 1st score of the game being a NYG safety. Pretty crazy, but I can't believe the odds were only 50-1. Safeties probably only happen once in 50 games or so on average (not to mention, a decent % of those that do in fact occur are done on purpose for strategic reasons, of which obviously none would be the 1st score of the game), let alone as the first score, let alone that it had to be the Giants doing it. For me to even put $10 on that bet, I would have needed AT LEAST like 300-1 odds. Btw, does anyone know if there's any site that shows how often safeties happen, or how many safeties occurred in the NFL on a year-to-year basis or anything like that? Basically just some good statistics regarding the frequency of safeties...

Edit: I just did a little bit of research - the average team kicked approximately 26 FG's this year and scored approximately 38 touchdowns. That's 64 scores per year which conveniently works out to 4 per game. That means the average game has 8 scores. So even if a safety occurred in EVERY game, there's only a 1 in 9 chance that it would be the first score of the game, and a 1 in 18 chance that it would be a chosen team doing so. So the odds Vegas gave that guy were as if a safety occurred more often than once every 3 games. The guy got lucky that he won, but he got HOSED on the odds.

Also, if you adjust it by looking at the scoring tendencies for the Pats and Giants specifically, the Pats had 61 touchdowns and 28 FG's while the Giants scored 47 touchdowns and 19 FG's. That's 89 scores for NE and 66 for NYG. That's 155 scores - 9.7 per game. Considering they both have considerably below average defenses, by playing each other, you'd expect AT LEAST 10 scores (actually more, but 10 is a nice round #). That means, even if a safety were guaranteed to occur, it would be a 1 in 11 chance of being the first score, and a 1 in 22 chance of being scored by a chosen team. That means the odds Vegas gave that guy were based on the probability that a safety occurs nearly every other game. Again, completely hosed. Even Vegas usually gives more fair odds than that.

Think about it for a second, Vegas gave 50-1 odds that the first score would be a NYG safety, meaning they'd only give 25-1 odds that the first score would be a safety period (by either team). So if you put $20 down on the first score being a safety, and it was, you'd only win $500. Just absolutely ridiculously low odds.
[ Edited by andes14 on Feb 6, 2012 at 2:24 PM ]
Originally posted by andes14:
Some dude won 50 grand because he put a g down on the 1st score of the game being a NYG safety. Pretty crazy, but I can't believe the odds were only 50-1. Safeties probably only happen once in 50 games or so on average (not to mention, a decent % of those that do in fact occur are done on purpose for strategic reasons, of which obviously none would be the 1st score of the game), let alone as the first score, let alone that it had to be the Giants doing it. For me to even put $10 on that bet, I would have needed AT LEAST like 300-1 odds. Btw, does anyone know if there's any site that shows how often safeties happen, or how many safeties occurred in the NFL on a year-to-year basis or anything like that? Basically just some good statistics regarding the frequency of safeties...

Edit: I just did a little bit of research - the average team kicked approximately 26 FG's this year and scored approximately 38 touchdowns. That's 64 scores per year which conveniently works out to 4 per game. That means the average game has 8 scores. So even if a safety occurred in EVERY game, there's only a 1 in 9 chance that it would be the first score of the game, and a 1 in 18 chance that it would be a chosen team doing so. So the odds Vegas gave that guy were as if a safety occurred more often than once every 3 games. The guy got lucky that he won, but he got HOSED on the odds.

Also, if you adjust it by looking at the scoring tendencies for the Pats and Giants specifically, the Pats had 61 touchdowns and 28 FG's while the Giants scored 47 touchdowns and 19 FG's. That's 89 scores for NE and 66 for NYG. That's 155 scores - 9.7 per game. Considering they both have considerably below average defenses, by playing each other, you'd expect AT LEAST 10 scores (actually more, but 10 is a nice round #). That means, even if a safety were guaranteed to occur, it would be a 1 in 11 chance of being the first score, and a 1 in 22 chance of being scored by a chosen team. That means the odds Vegas gave that guy were based on the probability that a safety occurs nearly every other game. Again, completely hosed. Even Vegas usually gives more fair odds than that.



Originally posted by KowboyKiller:



LOL
here it is

Originally posted by schmons:
here it is


HOSED HOSED HOSED HOSED HOSED. Shoulda won hundreds of thousands at least. One time in Vegas there was this dude that put like $20 or something down on a 15 game parlay. He woulda won millions and millions and millions. He hit on his first 14 and lost on the very last game. How the hell that dude didn't put his entire life savings on the opposite outcome of the 15th game after hitting on the first 14 blows my mind.
  • vaden
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Originally posted by andes14:
Some dude won 50 grand because he put a g down on the 1st score of the game being a NYG safety. Pretty crazy, but I can't believe the odds were only 50-1. Safeties probably only happen once in 50 games or so on average (not to mention, a decent % of those that do in fact occur are done on purpose for strategic reasons, of which obviously none would be the 1st score of the game), let alone as the first score, let alone that it had to be the Giants doing it. For me to even put $10 on that bet, I would have needed AT LEAST like 300-1 odds. Btw, does anyone know if there's any site that shows how often safeties happen, or how many safeties occurred in the NFL on a year-to-year basis or anything like that? Basically just some good statistics regarding the frequency of safeties...

Edit: I just did a little bit of research - the average team kicked approximately 26 FG's this year and scored approximately 38 touchdowns. That's 64 scores per year which conveniently works out to 4 per game. That means the average game has 8 scores. So even if a safety occurred in EVERY game, there's only a 1 in 9 chance that it would be the first score of the game, and a 1 in 18 chance that it would be a chosen team doing so. So the odds Vegas gave that guy were as if a safety occurred more often than once every 3 games. The guy got lucky that he won, but he got HOSED on the odds.

Also, if you adjust it by looking at the scoring tendencies for the Pats and Giants specifically, the Pats had 61 touchdowns and 28 FG's while the Giants scored 47 touchdowns and 19 FG's. That's 89 scores for NE and 66 for NYG. That's 155 scores - 9.7 per game. Considering they both have considerably below average defenses, by playing each other, you'd expect AT LEAST 10 scores (actually more, but 10 is a nice round #). That means, even if a safety were guaranteed to occur, it would be a 1 in 11 chance of being the first score, and a 1 in 22 chance of being scored by a chosen team. That means the odds Vegas gave that guy were based on the probability that a safety occurs nearly every other game. Again, completely hosed. Even Vegas usually gives more fair odds than that.

Think about it for a second, Vegas gave 50-1 odds that the first score would be a NYG safety, meaning they'd only give 25-1 odds that the first score would be a safety period (by either team). So if you put $20 down on the first score being a safety, and it was, you'd only win $500. Just absolutely ridiculously low odds.


Yep, prop bets usually have terrible odds, because the linesmakers know they attract a higher percentage of suckers and degenerates just needing some action.
Originally posted by HessianDud:

Originally posted by schmons:
here it is


Damn, you have to have a lot of play cash to drop a grand on a bet you expect to lose.

However, I'm rather cheap so....

Originally posted by horsecore:
Originally posted by HessianDud:


Lol
^ Adult Entertainment Stars?

Derek Jeter!!!!!!!!! A-ROD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Go Yankees!!!!!!!!!! Hopefully in all of NY there are a couple fans who actually deserve this SB trophy. I bet 3/4s of them where calling for Coughlin's head earlier in the season. How many wanted to get rid of Eli at one point too?
I was just watching Sound FX of the Super Bowl, and Vince Wilfork told the refs they made a bad call when they called holding against NYG's left guard on him. Why in the HELL would he do that???