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MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis

Originally posted by JoeisGod:
How does that saying go? Oh yeah. We all have the right to our own opinion. However, we don't have the right to our own facts. Or something like that.
lol. Don't go all metaphysical on us up in here.
Originally posted by joey82:
If you are going to give a guy s**t when he gets it wrong you can at least give him props when he gets it right. He was right on N. Davis, Rachal and Mays just for example.

I appreciate the time you put into this draft to share your thoughts and I realize that your opinions are just that opinions.

yeah, leave maddawg and brittney alone!
I want to say one thing, we didn't draft scared that another team would take Jenkins or Looney. We drafted them because they were the best player available in the 49ers mind. We didn't fall pray to what Fans and Media wanted/thought we should do and pick a OG or Fleener.

And even if we were worried Jenkins would go 33, so what each year teams always draft by trading up, we saw 27 trades, 8 1st round deals. Teams jump other teams to get their guy. So big deal if we did feel the Rams would take Jenkins at 33, we got a good WR and a good football player. We had a great draft weekend.

Added what we needed in the 49ers minds, and I am fine with it. Everyone wants to bash the draft again, like 2011 all over again, whether people feet Aldon or Culliver were reaches is moot point now. Just like if James, Jenkins, etc... turn into nice picks, then it;s a moot point that we didn't draft a OG early, it's because we felt Kilgore is ready, and only adding a 4th Rd OG, who could of went higher if not for injury, to the mix.

We added 7 good football players, and I expect them all to make the roster(Either 53 man or PS). And to get 3 picks in 2013 was huge. I would rather do what we did then stay and pick players who felt weren't fits. No one has the right or knowledge to know who is or feel is the perfect fit. Only our scouts, and FO know that.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
So now you're saying the Niners shouldn't have taken Fleming in the 5th round because he's not gonna start? He's just a special teams guy? Just how many fifth round picks are expected to be starters as rookies in the NFL? That doesn't sound like a very sound basis for your continued criticism of the Fleming pick.

Just how many NTs or DEs or Cs or Gs play special teams? Not many. And not many TEs play special teams either. Not when there's a mobile and hostile ILB, OLB, or FB who can fill the bill. And the Niners got a secondary guy, Trent Robinson, a guy you actually like, so your reasoning there seems a little hollow.

Looks like Fleming was drafted primarily for ST, and has the versatility to play OLB and maybe ILB if need be. He's 6'2" and 245, ran a 4.55 at his pro day, and appears to be a good character, gold helmet, football player type. Not a superstar, but not a "D": pick either. .

Bottom line, you had Fleming listed at #168 on your board, the Niners took him at #165, but you still give them a "D" for the pick. Seems, at the least, inconsistent on your part.

Fleming is a square peg in a round hole. He is a short OLB in a 34 defense, and few of these guys are effective in the NFL. Of course, there are acceptions, but not many. My argument once again, better players on the board.

The Niners made a better sixth round choice in Robinson, who actually has a chance to be a starter for the team someday. Fleming has zero chance. It is all about gettting value for the pick, and to select a LB who will be buried on the depth chart, having no chance to play outside of special teams...with a fifth rounder. Value, my friend. Just don't see it.
Yeah, those 6'2" OLBs are just terrible. Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, Rodney Harrison, etc. LOL.

Baalke and Harbaugh like to draft a special teams guy once in awhile. Colin Jones last year. Fleming this year, and his ability to play OLB is a plus, added depth at the position.

"Good football player, athletic, quick, productive." YOUR WORDS! That's not value for a 5th rounder???? If you don't see it, maybe you're not looking.

Your argument is that there were better players on the board when they made this pick (at #165, when you had Fleming at #168 on your own board).

So, tell us: what better OLBs were on the board at that point? Give us some names. What OLB did you have listed higher on your board? (Cameron Johnson doesn't count, given the fact that he's a Niner now, after all.) And please don't try to pass off somebody at a different position, since its clear that the Niners were looking for OLB depth at that point.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
How can you so vigorously defend Jenkins, when you just stated that you didn't know who Jenkins was at first? And, if you didn't know Jenkins, who was very well known by anyone that examines the draft, how can you even begin to break down how the Niners draft was superior to mine.

As for Jenkins, I spoke about him well more than any board member before the draft on the Draft Board. In fact, I was a big supporter of his offseason play and potential in the NFL, much more than my colleagues. That being said, I simply don't award him bonus points because the team selected him. He is graded where he is graded, regardless of the team selecting him. He does not gain superhuman powers because he straps on a 49ers jersey or if Baalke thinks he is great.

As for your breakdown of why the Niners' selections were superior to mine, you are entitled to defend them. At least defend it from a position of strength. But to state that you really dont know who the first rounder was, but their selections must be better than my selections, simply because Baalke and Harbaugh made their choices, is not a strong argument.

As for the argument that Baalke and Harbaugh have this whole thing figure out at RG, I present to you their plan for the 2011 season, a Day One starter named......Chilo Rachal. That was brilliant!!! So, Baalke and Harbaugh do not have divine powers, They have the potential to make errors in judgment, make stinky player personnel decisions, and draft players that should not have been selected.

Do you honestly buy the company line across the board? Have the Niners' management ever made an error?

With all due respect, I could ask you the same question. How are you, a fan who has no formal training, background in football or access to the vast resources of an NFL GM able to break down how superior his drafts/off-season's are in comparison to any NFL GM, let alone the reigning Executive of the Year? I am pretty sure you and OND both ascertain your information/opinions on players the exact same way (i.e. watching games, watching YouTube clips and reading scouts assessments), and that's fine because that is what I and every other fan do. The only difference is that maybe OND did more of his research after Jenkins was drafted by the Niners whereas you did yours before. So I fail to see how just because OND did the majority of his research after the draft discredits his breakdown of how Baalke's draft was superior to yours in his opinion It was a well thought out break down that put 2 differing ideologies up against one another and is just as valid as anything else posted around here.
[ Edited by Hoovtrain on May 3, 2012 at 5:44 PM ]
Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
With all due respect, I could ask you the same question. How are you, a fan who has no formal training, background in football or access to the vast resources of an NFL GM able to break down how superior his drafts/off-season's are in comparison to any NFL GM, let alone the reigning Executive of the Year? I am pretty sure you and OND both ascertain your information/opinions on players the exact same way (i.e. watching games, watching YouTube clips and reading scouts assessments), and that's fine because that is what I and every other fan do. The only difference is that maybe OND did more of his research after Jenkins was drafted by the Niners whereas you did yours before. So I fail to see how just because OND did the majority of his research after the draft discredits his breakdown of how Baalke's draft was superior to yours in his opinion It was a well thought out break down that put 2 differing ideologies up against one another and is just as valid as anything else posted around here.

Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 24,842
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.
you know what happens if you dare question the head coach and front office around here
people b***hing about right guard... the most worthless position in all of football and people are complaining.

this line already consists of 3 first round picks and a pro bowler at center, and you guys want another 1st round pick at guard?! this is f**kin' ridiculous. even a street fa would have been better than rachal, so who f**kin' cares? the team got a solid player in looney in the 4th which is a decent round to pick a RIGHT GUARD (for christ's sake this position is really bla).

what did the team do instead? they got a wide receiver, which is easily the biggest need after quarterback (assuming that kaepernick isn't the answer). crabtree is a #2, we know that by now, moss is at best a one-year solution (if he makes the team, which i am not convinced of), manningham is another #2 at best, well and the rest is forgetable. and since we all know that gore is on the downside of his career it was obvious that they had to pick a running back. paired with hunter, james will form a competent duo for the next years. the team was slow on offense last year. jenkins and james are fast. they add another dimension to this offense. thus, these picks filled needs, while adding additional abilities, and they were not overdrafted. jenkins would have been picked by st. louis and james with his freakish athleticism and great production was clearly worth a very late second round pick.

the rest of the picks? not one pick which didn't fill a need. not one pick which has a major red flag in any kind of respect. and a s**tload of additional picks next year. arguing in such a way against this draft *is* arrogant; and objectively so.

my *subjective* take of this draft is simply: f**kIN BRILLIANT.
* got the players they wanted
* drafted only needs
* got additional draftpicks
* no questionable personalities
* added speed on offense

yes, this draft was f**kin' A.
]
Originally posted by cciowa:
you know what happens if you dare question the head coach and front office around here

Can't speak for others, but that is certainly not what I was referring to. This seems to be the common misconception when people get on MD. It has absolutely nothing to do with disagreeing with the FO, at least for me. I could care less if someone disagrees with the FO. I certainly have.
Originally posted by zugschef:
* no questionable personalities

I don't know all the legal outcomes but James was involved in a domestic issue a few years ago

The only strike against the "intangibles" is his 2010 arrest in a domestic dispute with an ex-girlfriend. The confrontation escalated and James and while the initial charges sounded very bad, he eventually plead guilty to physical harassment.

Oregon running back LaMichael James was arrested by the Springfield, Ore., police department in the early hours of Wednesday following a fight with his girlfriend and charged with strangulation, two counts of assault in the fourth degree and two counts of physical harrassment.All three charges are misdemeanors. The assault charge could carry as much as a year of jail time.James pled not guilty to all five counts Wednesday and was released into house arrest Thursday night. James, whose first court appearance is March 24, will be required to wear an ankle monitoring device.According to the police report, James' girlfriend alleged he grabbed her by the neck and threw her to the ground in a parking lot, resulting in abrasions and pain in her neck.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,863
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.

If you refrained from remarks such as those highlighted in bold, this discussion would be more civil.

I find your charge that some fans are not honest and your implied assertion that you are honest to be particularly irksome.

First, the charge borders on the banal as there can always be some fans who are not honest.
Second, instead of painting with a broad brush, challenge those individuals who you feel are not honest.
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Yeah, those 6'2" OLBs are just terrible. Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, Rodney Harrison, etc. LOL.

Baalke and Harbaugh like to draft a special teams guy once in awhile. Colin Jones last year. Fleming this year, and his ability to play OLB is a plus, added depth at the position.

"Good football player, athletic, quick, productive." YOUR WORDS! That's not value for a 5th rounder???? If you don't see it, maybe you're not looking.

Your argument is that there were better players on the board when they made this pick (at #165, when you had Fleming at #168 on your own board).

So, tell us: what better OLBs were on the board at that point? Give us some names. What OLB did you have listed higher on your board? (Cameron Johnson doesn't count, given the fact that he's a Niner now, after all.) And please don't try to pass off somebody at a different position, since its clear that the Niners were looking for OLB depth at that point.
*Von Miller plays in a 43 defense- 6'2 5/8"
*Rodney Harrison played safety for the Patriots
*Fleming is 6'1 1/4"
*Big Board not the same as a value board
*Tim Fugger better 34 OLB prospect
*No requirement to go OLB in the 5th round; better players at better positions available
Originally posted by buck:
If you refrained from remarks such as those highlighted in bold, this discussion would be more civil.

I find your charge that some fans are not honest and your implied assertion that you are honest to be particularly irksome.

First, the charge borders on the banal as there can always be some fans who are not honest.
Second, instead of painting with a broad brush, challenge those individuals who you feel are not honest.

If you are skeptical, I encourage you to go ahead and post a "Who will be a better NFL guard: DeCastro or Looney"? Pre-draft, this would probably be a 99%-1% vote for DeCastro, and people would be relentlessly slamming the poll as the stupidest thing they have ever seen. Post draft, my guess would be 60%-40% DeCastro, but there would be a lot of anti-DeCastro sentiment. We saw the same results last year with the post-draft, "Who will be the best NFL quarterback from this class?" thread. Want to take a wild guess who won?

If DeCastro was selected by the Niners, this board would be fighting to get in as many DeCastro Pro-Bowl Bound threads as possible, and people would never even think about Looney. I'm not so sure there are more than ten people who knew Looney going into the draft. You could run a similar thread for any pre and post draft WR thread on who will be the best WR in the draft. Run that one for fun as well.

The point being that fans desperately want their players to succeed, and this alters their ability to make a fair judgment on a player. It is not an honest way to evaluate talent and future success. It is not criminal, it is human nature. But, it is not accurate.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Forming an opinion after the NIners draft is not an objective way to grade a player, since you already have a bias to root for the guy, and see the best in a player, because you desperately want them to succeed.

This is a trap that some fall into. Nobody on the board is bemoaning the fact that we didn't select Stephen Hill, Mohamed Sanu, Rueben Randle, Brian Quick. But, we know how the game is played, If one of these guys were selected, and not Jenkins, nobody would be saddened that we didn't take Jenkins. If you are curious how much support there was on the board for Jenkins before the draft, happy hunting. There was more interest in players like Tommy Streeter. In other words, some fans will defend to the death a Niners' selection, regardless of the selection. That is not an honest evaluation. I provide an honest evaluation that does not waver on whether the team selects a player or not.

Doubt my previous statements? Please review the thread last year after the draft on which QB drafted would be most successful. It was CK in a landslide. Fans are fans, I get it. However, to criticize someone's assessment of players in the draft and defend management, hardly knowing anything about a player going into the draft is shoddy.

I have been following Jenkins and watching him for years. That is not the "exact same way" as someone who scrambles for a draft guide after the pick to figure out who we got.

If you refrained from remarks such as those highlighted in bold, this discussion would be more civil.

I find your charge that some fans are not honest and your implied assertion that you are honest to be particularly irksome.

First, the charge borders on the banal as there can always be some fans who are not honest.
Second, instead of painting with a broad brush, challenge those individuals who you feel are not honest.

man i dont think he is saying fans are dishonest. just that we as a fan base are more likely to believe in a pick because we are fans!! we love this team and we want our draft picks to succeed no matter what. therefore the opinions that we create are bias. even those of us who go and scout/research the player after the pick are going to create a bias opinion because the player is already on the team, his flaws are less of a concern because we believe in the coaching staff.



where as some fans, like maddog, who study the draft and college system almost religiously will question some picks due to a belief in their own scouting abilities and what their scouting of a player has told them about that player. they stick with their rankings regardless of where a player is drafted.

now you can argue that maddogs " honest" opinion of players is bias due to the fact that he wants his rankings to be correct but i feel that, regardless of who a player is drafted by , maddog gives an honest evaluation of the player.


i think its a testament to the new Front office, and shows just how bad the previous Front office's of this franchise have been.
That after 1 successful draft/Free agency and a brilliant season a majority of the fan base is developing a "blind faith " in the FO. Not necessarily a bad thing....

but you have to ask..... would we be debating that we didnt select jenkins if we had taken randle or hill?? probably not, that doesnt mean its a bad pick or that maddogs ranking is correct, just if a lot of us are "honest" myself included we had no idea the 49ers were going to select jenkins but due to our belief in the front office we now firmly believe he was the correct choice, and that he will undoubtedly succeed, due to our belief in the front office and coaching staff to select the right players for this team.