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MadDog's Niners Draft Grade and Analysis for 2012 NFL Draft

Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
This post is full of unsupported speculation.

Further, the posted argument--that the Niners needed to draft DeCasto in order to solve their "OL problems"--also appears to be badly misguided. One could argue that the position stated in this post completely ignores or overlooks the state of the Niner's offense last season.

According to the post, the Niners needed yet another first round selection at OL in order to cure a somewhat anemic offense that struggled on third downs, on short yardage situations, in the red zone, and with pass protection. As if adding DeCastro would suddenly, magically cure all these ills.

But the trouble did not lie solely with the OL. Rather, it could be traced to a lack of a sufficient number of playmakers who are able to get separation and get open, especially on third down and in short yardage situations. Opposing teams last season were frequently able to overwhelm the OL with numbers in these situations because they knew our skill players did not have the speed necessary to get open quickly and allow the QB to get the ball out of his hands fast enough.

So the genius cure by Harbaugh and Baalke is to add two speedy playmakers to stretch the field, get separation (and get open), and take the pressure off the QB and the OL.

There's just no way the addition of DeCasto at RG would have cured the third down ills that plagued the team last year. But the addition of Jenkins, James and Looney will go a long way towards doing so. IMHO.

So the post above is really just speculating about something that's a non-issue as far as improving the offense is concerned. Would adding DeCastro have helped? Probably. Would it have solved the third down problems. Not likely. Good as he is, DeCastro is not quick, fast, or speedy enough to get separation and get open on critical downs, nor is it his job to do so, obviously.

It seems pretty clear that Baalke got the guy he was targeting all along--both in the first and in the second round. So the completely unsupported argument that he coulda or shoulda tried to trade to get DeCastro is not only purely speculative, its also compeletely frivolous.

The post shows a lack of understanding about what the Niners were trying to accomplish in the draft, for the offense, in the first place. IMHO.

Which would be better to cure the third down/short yardage ills, getting a great RG, or getting a really good RG, a terrific WR with great speed, AND a terrific third down RB with great speed (and adding a bunch of picks next year as well). Seems like a pretty easy call.

BTW, thanks to MadDog for framing this issue the way he did. It may not have been his intent to do so, but presenting the argument the way he does allows Niner fans to more closely examine just what Baalke and Harbaugh set out to do, and accomplished, in the draft this year.

This draft was deep in WR's, and the difference between a player like Jenkins and another WR like Randle, Quick, Jones, to me is negligible. The difference between DeCastro and every other guard not named Glenn or Brooks, is wide. It is the way you grade players and the value you place on how they project in the future.
Agreed, draft was deep in WRs. You may even be right about DeCasto being one of the top three guards in the draft.

Neither point answers the questions posed: do you have any actual evidence that Baalke refused to consider another team's offer to trade, that the Brown's, for example, called and offered the 22nd pick in exchange for #30 and #92, but Baalke turned them down?

Further, it may all be a moot point. It appears that the Niner's were more interested in solving their short yardage/OL problems by adding some speedy playmakers than by adding yet another first round OL selection? Did you even consider that?

Fundamentally, you and I appear to have a difference of opinion in how building a team should be approached. You appear to be of the "plug in a great player and expect great results" school. Lots of people prefer that way of thinking, but it doesn't always net the expected results. (See, Philly's "dream team" last season.) (Or Singletary's failed experiment of plugging two first round rookies into the starting OL and watching an 8-8 team go 0-5 to start and 6-10 overall.) (Or any of Washington's FA moves since Snyder bought the team.)

To me, there's not always alot of difference in the actual talent of two different NFL teams. They may have a nearly equal number of fast, big, strong, strong-armed, skilled, experienced, and motivated players. One may be great, the other a perennial loser. The difference--coaching and team management.

So whether Jenkins is a C+ pick, or an A+ ultimately doesn't matter, to me, cause its how he's coached, and how he fits into the team's overall plan that matters. He appears to add a badly missing dimension--speed--that Randall, Quick, Jones, Sanu, and others would not necessarily provide. Now lets see how Roman and Harbaugh use that speed, along with his other abilities--route running ability, excellent hands, etc.

I'm guessing that he's going to have a great rookie season, much like Aldon Smith had last year. Not because of his measurables, but because of how his abilities are utilized, or "fitted" to the vision Harbaugh has of the offense.

So your criticism of Baalke for not moving up to get DeCastro is a far too simplistic view of what occurred in the draft to be of much worth, to me. To the extent you lack any real evidence that it actually occurred, its also somewhat unfair to Baalke, but whatever. . . .I doubt he lost any sleep over it.

Neither did I, for that matter.
dont understand the mad dog bashing ehre---he gives his opinions like we all do on a messgae board...i dont always agree with maddog but always find him to be an informative and interesting read, with well thought out opinions
  • fryet
  • Veteran
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Originally posted by 80849er4life:
Nobody care what grades u give.

I care
Originally posted by hofer36:
dont understand the mad dog bashing ehre---he gives his opinions like we all do on a messgae board...i dont always agree with maddog but always find him to be an informative and interesting read, with well thought out opinions

What bashing? Right now all I see ate two groups of people who disagree on something and are arguing about it. But they aren't attacking each other.

Sometimes MadDog's opinions are selected, I suspect, more to get a reaction. But that's ok.
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by 80849er4life:
Nobody care what grades u give.

I care

No you dont
  • fryet
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Originally posted by Amir:
Maddog, I have nothing against you. You obviously watch a lot of college football but:

You have NO access to the medical reports of each player
You have NO access to psychological report of each player
You have NO contact with any player therefore you have no access to their interview
Only video access you have is from the feed from the broadcast and I doubt you are able to watch EVERY single game and evaluate each player on a weekly basis

You certainly have the right to have your opinion and I think it's great you do this every year. However, please excuse me when I say that your evaluations are worthless without having the data I posted above.

Maybe I should flame you instead. (: If this is the requirement to make a post-draft evaluation, then this is going to be a lonely board. And even those that have access to the above information often/usually make the wrong decision. Despite this, post-draft grades are fun. Everyone should realize that draft grades will change dramatically after the players get on the field, and the grades now are probably incorrect. Despite this, many people, myself included, asked MadDog his opinion on the 49ers draft. As one who has spent a lot of time on the draft and the 49ers, his opinion carries a lot of weight. Can he be wrong? Sure - and MadDog will be the first to admit that. But it can be fun to have a draft expert give their initial impressions after the draft.
  • Amir
  • RIP Amir, Hall of Fame
  • Posts: 28,036
Originally posted by fryet:
Originally posted by Amir:
Maddog, I have nothing against you. You obviously watch a lot of college football but:

You have NO access to the medical reports of each player
You have NO access to psychological report of each player
You have NO contact with any player therefore you have no access to their interview
Only video access you have is from the feed from the broadcast and I doubt you are able to watch EVERY single game and evaluate each player on a weekly basis

You certainly have the right to have your opinion and I think it's great you do this every year. However, please excuse me when I say that your evaluations are worthless without having the data I posted above.

Maybe I should flame you instead. (: If this is the requirement to make a post-draft evaluation, then this is going to be a lonely board. And even those that have access to the above information often/usually make the wrong decision. Despite this, post-draft grades are fun. Everyone should realize that draft grades will change dramatically after the players get on the field, and the grades now are probably incorrect. Despite this, many people, myself included, asked MadDog his opinion on the 49ers draft. As one who has spent a lot of time on the draft and the 49ers, his opinion carries a lot of weight. Can he be wrong? Sure - and MadDog will be the first to admit that. But it can be fun to have a draft expert give their initial impressions after the draft.

When and where did I say maddog should stop doing a mock or no one should be allowed to ask questions? Maddog has every right to do this and others have every right to ask questions and get answers from him. I simply said that I hope he understands why I choose not to care about his evaluation based on him not having access to certain important/relevant data.
Originally posted by AllTimeGreat:
Originally posted by jreff22:
So far Trent has missed on every WR he has brought in: Williams, Swain, Hastings, Edwards, and Johnson. Now we have Moss and Manningham and who knows with those two. The position we struggled with the most is his biggest weakness in evaluating talent so far. I really hope Jenkins works out so we can give Alex an actual viable weapon but going the "little" guy route is concerning.
Okay so you list 2 6th round picks, 2 UDFA's and a receiver we picked up for just over the league minimum and proclaim that Trent has missed on every WR he brought in. A little unreasonable don't you think. Furthermore, I think Williams was a good pick considering we grabbed him in the 6th round. The fact of the matter is, Trent up till this offseason had not really tried to bring in that much WR help so it's a little soon to be making the declaration that Trent can't evaluate WR talent.

And since when is a 6 foot tall receiver considered a "little guy?"

6'0 190 is little IMO. He has a small frame so I don't see him being a great blocker unless he adds some weight. Morgan and Crabs have like 20lbs on him which does make a difference. And its not a "potential" problem with Jenkins, I just don't see him being that kind of WR. He should help immensely in the passing game, I just don't see much help in the running game.

That's still 5 players and the fact that we decided on Swain over other guys is alarming in itself.....and we just resigned that turd. And why did he not recognize the need for more talent at the position? He decided to pass on lots of guys and wait to take a WR late numerous times...or not at all. Although no GM can predict injury he should be making sure important positions are addressed. We should of taken a proven guy in Housh or Chambers yet we went with a GB nobody. Again looking at judging talent in both the short and long term.

Going back to 2010:

In the 2nd round we could of had,
Golden Tate
Damian Williams
Brandon LaFell
Jordan Shipley
Eric Decker

In the 6th round we could of had,
Antonio Brown
David Gettis
Marc Mariani

Don't get me wrong I think he has done a great job at building this team and should get better with time. But the WR position has been a weakness on this roster and the added talent so far has been lackluster. If all goes well which I hope Moss will be committed and will become the #1 and Jenkins should be the #2 or #3 by mid season. The WR issue was a major factor in not winning the NFCC, these acquisitions and picks better fix the problem now.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Thanks for the kind words, and glad you see what I was trying to do.

I admit that I, too, wanted Fleener and was surprised at the selection of Jenkins in the first. I did not know who Jenkins was at first, although I was sure the Niners would pick someone other than what we all expected. Trying to figure out what they were up to in this draft has been fun and enlightening.

I have no idea how well Jenkins or LMJ, or any other pick will perform this coming season. I am, however, more and more impressed with Harbaugh and Baalke and their respective abilities. If this draft lives up to my newfound expectations--cures even some of the short yardage woes we're so used to seeing for so long--then next season is gonna be another very pleasant surprise. Harbaugh's team's gonna crush some opponents.

How can you so vigorously defend Jenkins, when you just stated that you didn't know who Jenkins was at first? And, if you didn't know Jenkins, who was very well known by anyone that examines the draft, how can you even begin to break down how the Niners draft was superior to mine.

As for Jenkins, I spoke about him well more than any board member before the draft on the Draft Board. In fact, I was a big supporter of his offseason play and potential in the NFL, much more than my colleagues. That being said, I simply don't award him bonus points because the team selected him. He is graded where he is graded, regardless of the team selecting him. He does not gain superhuman powers because he straps on a 49ers jersey or if Baalke thinks he is great.

As for your breakdown of why the Niners' selections were superior to mine, you are entitled to defend them. At least defend it from a position of strength. But to state that you really dont know who the first rounder was, but their selections must be better than my selections, simply because Baalke and Harbaugh made their choices, is not a strong argument.

As for the argument that Baalke and Harbaugh have this whole thing figure out at RG, I present to you their plan for the 2011 season, a Day One starter named......Chilo Rachal. That was brilliant!!! So, Baalke and Harbaugh do not have divine powers, They have the potential to make errors in judgment, make stinky player personnel decisions, and draft players that should not have been selected.

Do you honestly buy the company line across the board? Have the Niners' management ever made an error?
I didn't say I don't know who he is, I said I was surprised at his selection and didn't recognize him at first. Since then, its called research bro. Since he was drafted, I've read more about him. Duh.

You trying to say you have memorized each and every detail of each and every one of the 253 guys selected? Or even of the 199 of those guys you had on your board? I don't try to hold myself out as any kind of expert, and my "defense" was not premised on any claim of expertise by me. Its just a comparison based on where the guys you selected were actually taken, the Niner's picks, and common sense.

Defending the Niner's selections over yours was easy enough, since you gave many of those selections "A" grades, yourself. Your "mock" didn't address the most glaring need on offense--speed--and didn't provide any real backup depth at other positions. It appears that you just took the guy you thought might be the highest rated player at or near the Niner's selection and threw the name out there. I'm glad that's not what Baalke did.

Criticizing Harbaugh for starting the RG from the previous regime, especially when he appeared to have all the measurables that experts apparently look for, doesn't seem fair. The fact is, Rachal is now gone, which is much more telling about Harbaugh's appaisal of his abilities. Furthermore, Baalke drafted the guy who may replace Rachal . . . in LAST YEAR's draft. Guy named Kilgore. Member him? So now that you bring it up, maybe Baalke and Harbaugh DO have this whole RG thing figured out.

I'm more inclined to believe in them than not, at least given their recent success. Even with a guy like Rachal at RG, they managed to go 13-3. Go figure.

Based on the Harbaugh/Baalke track record to date, we should all be inclined to "buy the company line" from them at this point, unless and until someone can point to some real evidence that says we shouldn't. Something more than the kind of speculation about imaginary "missed golden opportunities" that you've presented.

Niner's management has, certainly, made mistakes in the past. (WR named Ron Johnson from last year's draft comes to mind.) So?

You claim that I'm trying to defend everything the Niner's do. Not so, but at least I'm not criticizing them for stuff that didn't even happen.

Its not the same management group; things have changed. Maybe its time to "sit up" and take notice?
[ Edited by oldninerdude on May 3, 2012 at 2:56 PM ]
How does that saying go? Oh yeah. We all have the right to our own opinion. However, we don't have the right to our own facts. Or something like that.

Originally posted by JoeisGod:
How does that saying go? Oh yeah. We all have the right to our own opinion. However, we don't have the right to our own facts. Or something like that.
lol. Don't go all metaphysical on us up in here.
Originally posted by joey82:
If you are going to give a guy s**t when he gets it wrong you can at least give him props when he gets it right. He was right on N. Davis, Rachal and Mays just for example.

I appreciate the time you put into this draft to share your thoughts and I realize that your opinions are just that opinions.

yeah, leave maddawg and brittney alone!
I want to say one thing, we didn't draft scared that another team would take Jenkins or Looney. We drafted them because they were the best player available in the 49ers mind. We didn't fall pray to what Fans and Media wanted/thought we should do and pick a OG or Fleener.

And even if we were worried Jenkins would go 33, so what each year teams always draft by trading up, we saw 27 trades, 8 1st round deals. Teams jump other teams to get their guy. So big deal if we did feel the Rams would take Jenkins at 33, we got a good WR and a good football player. We had a great draft weekend.

Added what we needed in the 49ers minds, and I am fine with it. Everyone wants to bash the draft again, like 2011 all over again, whether people feet Aldon or Culliver were reaches is moot point now. Just like if James, Jenkins, etc... turn into nice picks, then it;s a moot point that we didn't draft a OG early, it's because we felt Kilgore is ready, and only adding a 4th Rd OG, who could of went higher if not for injury, to the mix.

We added 7 good football players, and I expect them all to make the roster(Either 53 man or PS). And to get 3 picks in 2013 was huge. I would rather do what we did then stay and pick players who felt weren't fits. No one has the right or knowledge to know who is or feel is the perfect fit. Only our scouts, and FO know that.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by oldninerdude:
So now you're saying the Niners shouldn't have taken Fleming in the 5th round because he's not gonna start? He's just a special teams guy? Just how many fifth round picks are expected to be starters as rookies in the NFL? That doesn't sound like a very sound basis for your continued criticism of the Fleming pick.

Just how many NTs or DEs or Cs or Gs play special teams? Not many. And not many TEs play special teams either. Not when there's a mobile and hostile ILB, OLB, or FB who can fill the bill. And the Niners got a secondary guy, Trent Robinson, a guy you actually like, so your reasoning there seems a little hollow.

Looks like Fleming was drafted primarily for ST, and has the versatility to play OLB and maybe ILB if need be. He's 6'2" and 245, ran a 4.55 at his pro day, and appears to be a good character, gold helmet, football player type. Not a superstar, but not a "D": pick either. .

Bottom line, you had Fleming listed at #168 on your board, the Niners took him at #165, but you still give them a "D" for the pick. Seems, at the least, inconsistent on your part.

Fleming is a square peg in a round hole. He is a short OLB in a 34 defense, and few of these guys are effective in the NFL. Of course, there are acceptions, but not many. My argument once again, better players on the board.

The Niners made a better sixth round choice in Robinson, who actually has a chance to be a starter for the team someday. Fleming has zero chance. It is all about gettting value for the pick, and to select a LB who will be buried on the depth chart, having no chance to play outside of special teams...with a fifth rounder. Value, my friend. Just don't see it.
Yeah, those 6'2" OLBs are just terrible. Von Miller, Elvis Dumervil, Rodney Harrison, etc. LOL.

Baalke and Harbaugh like to draft a special teams guy once in awhile. Colin Jones last year. Fleming this year, and his ability to play OLB is a plus, added depth at the position.

"Good football player, athletic, quick, productive." YOUR WORDS! That's not value for a 5th rounder???? If you don't see it, maybe you're not looking.

Your argument is that there were better players on the board when they made this pick (at #165, when you had Fleming at #168 on your own board).

So, tell us: what better OLBs were on the board at that point? Give us some names. What OLB did you have listed higher on your board? (Cameron Johnson doesn't count, given the fact that he's a Niner now, after all.) And please don't try to pass off somebody at a different position, since its clear that the Niners were looking for OLB depth at that point.
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