QB Brock Purdy Thread

Yup, those were some words.

The new moderator wants posters like 1986 who actually put thought into his posts and explained why and when and look at the stupid responses it got.

where's the new moderator so he can tell these dumb *** posts that this is what's not needed here? You want well thought out posts at this place? Then let's get rid of dumb a$$ responses.

Originally posted by lp1986:
The Niners blew it. 2023/2024 was their chance to win it all and they left it on the field in Vegas. Last year the front office and coaching staff deluded themselves but mostly ownership that if they can just keep the roster together, they were going to have another clear shot at the SB. The reality was that the roster aged, depth vanished and when combined with some truly bad luck, the Niners ended up with a 6 win season. This was all AFTER the Yorks dolled out more than $100M in cash to players like Aiyuk, Trent and CMC. This is why we're now hearing about the Niners new found austerity.

If you examine the Niners' roster - between the gaping holes on the OL, a defensive line with one (one!) credible NFL starter (Bosa), an aging and depleted skill position corps - it is abundantly clear that the Niners will not be competing for a Super Bowl this year. To think otherwise is to engage in delusion.

2025 will be a massive reset for this regime and this roster. Which brings us to Brock Purdy...

There are few doubts that Purdy is a top 15 QB who can perform at an elite level when all the pieces are in place (see 2022 and 2023). But this year, with a middling OL and dearth of talent around him, Brock became a slightly above replacement level QB. I believe Kyle and John when they say that want Brock to be here as long as they are; it's tough to find QBs that are as solid as him. But at what price?

My belief is that Purdy is about to be a victim of circumstance after this front office was dragged in negotiations by Aiyuk, Deebo, Trent, Bosa, etc. The Niners almost certainly will have a ceiling above which they won't go. My guess? It will be around $51M AAV with ~$100M guaranteed; roughly what Jalen Hurts got. Now Purdy is fully justified to ask for more, much more. In his short career, his outplayed QBs like Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Dak and (I'd argue) who are being paid astronomical sums of money.

But here's the Niners' calculus: if you pay Brock now, will you be putting him in a position to succeed when it will likely take at least two years to get this roster back in shape? Orrrr...can you accelerate the rebuild massively by moving your most valuable piece for a haul of draft picks?

I believe, that the Niners can get a '25 and '26 first round pick for Purdy. The Giants, Raiders and Colts are all desperate and, as we discussed, Purdy is a top 15 QB who is only 25 years old. If Brock's camp is adamant about $150M guaranteed and the Giants or Raiders come running with the #3 or 6 pick and next year's 1st rounder, how can you say no?

This is why I'm confident that John Lynch hedged during his presser at the combine and said "there are no guarantees that we get something done."

So what would I do? I give Brock a take it or leave it offer: 4 years, $200M and $100M guaranteed. If his camp rejects the offer, I'm immediately calling the Giants and I'm trading Brock for the #3 pick and next year's 1.

The Niners would be armed with the #3, 11, 43, 75, 99 picks. They would have two first rounders next year which would put them in prime position to trade up for their QB of choice (hello Arch Manning, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier, Sam Leavitt, etc.). As for this year, there are plenty of options available: Mac Jones would fit nicely in Kyle's system and we KNOW he loved him coming out in 2021. If not Mac, we can scratch Kyle's itch and bring in Captain Kirk to play this year and as a bridge QB next.

The draft capital would allow the Niners to rebuild a dominant OL and DL and bring much needed youth and speed to WR, RB, LB and the secondary. If they hit on these picks, you can see them even competing next year and setting themselves up for a new run in 2026 and beyond.

THIS IS THE WAY.

Can I start calling you Mando ??

Originally posted by maximusdecimus:
The new moderator wants posters like 1986 who actually put thought into his posts and explained why and when and look at the stupid responses it got.

where's the new moderator so he can tell these dumb *** posts that this is what's not needed here? You want well thought out posts at this place? Then let's get rid of dumb a$$ responses.

in fairness this isn't a create a new thread convo. it just is a brock purdy post. i gave a great response the reality is pick 3 as part of a 2 ones package it's not realistic at all

Originally posted by lamontb:
Wonder if we get Brocks deal done so they know what they can do in FA

They know what the budget is going to be like for FA. Purdy's salary went from 1.1M to 5.3M since he maxxed out the Proven Performance Escalator with his 2023 original-ballot Pro Bowl selection. His contract is likely to have a minimized salary and large signing bonus, with the bonus prorated over 5 years. They usually don't attach workout and active roster bonuses on the first year of an extension. An 80M signing bonus with minimized salary would result in a 17.1M cap hit, increasing his 2025 cap hit by 11.8M. If they are serious about getting Purdy extended this year, they'll just block off 10-15M of their 39M in cap space.

I can totally see this scenario happening. Maybe they can even ask Darnold to come back as a stop gap QB.

How interesting that injuries, which destroyed last season, doesn't even get a mention in the OP.

And I don't believe that the Giants, or anyone else, are going to trade 2 firsts for a guy who struggled a bit last year for various reasons and who just has one year left on his contract. And who has just thrown out a contract which, whilst not overly generous, was not too bad. I don't think, by the way, that throwing take-it-or-leave-it offers at him right now would be particularly beneficial.

And if Manning and the others were such a good possibility , why would the Giants or the others throw their picks at us? They can take their guy this year or next year and have up to 5 years low cost quarterbacking. As for us this year, we could have, as you say, Mac Jones. If Shanahan had wanted him in 21 he would have taken him. He was a bust with the Pats and was valued at a 6th round pick. He won two games out of seven starts in 2024.

Regarding the draft capital that you see as driving our rebuild, it would only be one extra pick and I am unconvinced about getting two firsts in that trade, particularly with one of them such high value.

So, no thanks. Getting a quality quarterback is difficult. History teaches us this. And there are plenty of busts at that position in round 1 of late.

Originally posted by captveg:

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
This fanbase man… really really interesting people.

Bunch of panicky fools.

I hope none of them ever try to play card games at a casino.

these are the guys who double down on 20 when the dealer showing bust

Originally posted by captveg:

Originally posted by Fanaticofnfl:
This fanbase man… really really interesting people.

Bunch of panicky fools.

I hope none of them ever try to play card games at a casino.

Maybe if they're playing at the same poker table as I am.

Otherwise, I agree.

Originally posted by Oscar8325:
Mahomes makes 45, Allen about the same. Brock should be in that ball park not in Daks. What Dallas did was idiotic!

Mahomes signed that deal in 2020... The Chiefs and Mahomes restructured a bunch of cash from 2028-31 to payout over 2023-27. He's getting 205.4M over that 4 year span (51.35M AAV). In 2028, Mahomes will get a new deal that pays even more.

I'd expect the Bills and Allen at the very least restructure his contract and pull more future bonus money to be paid out this season. More likely they just give him an extension that puts his compensation inline with the market. Again, a contract signed in 2021.

The next salary cap boom is going to be when the NFL opts out of the current media deal at the end of this decade. QB contracts will boom with that.

Did this post really need its own thread?

Maybe if we got close to 3 firsts (which wouldn't happen) and we go get Rodgers I'd do it. Purdy had a head scratching season last year. All the injuries didn't help but he was making some flat out bad decisions.

Originally posted by Typecast:
Did this post really need its own thread?

no

Originally posted by maximusdecimus:
The new moderator wants posters like 1986 who actually put thought into his posts and explained why and when and look at the stupid responses it got.

where's the new moderator so he can tell these dumb *** posts that this is what's not needed here? You want well thought out posts at this place? Then let's get rid of dumb a$$ responses.

I think the issue is that it didn't need its own thread. Thought out posts are good. People starting a random thread everytime they come up with an iteration of the same argument we've seen dozens of times, not so much.