Originally posted by lp1986:
The Niners blew it. 2023/2024 was their chance to win it all and they left it on the field in Vegas. Last year the front office and coaching staff deluded themselves but mostly ownership that if they can just keep the roster together, they were going to have another clear shot at the SB. The reality was that the roster aged, depth vanished and when combined with some truly bad luck, the Niners ended up with a 6 win season. This was all AFTER the Yorks dolled out more than $100M in cash to players like Aiyuk, Trent and CMC. This is why we're now hearing about the Niners new found austerity.
If you examine the Niners' roster - between the gaping holes on the OL, a defensive line with one (one!) credible NFL starter (Bosa), an aging and depleted skill position corps - it is abundantly clear that the Niners will not be competing for a Super Bowl this year. To think otherwise is to engage in delusion.
2025 will be a massive reset for this regime and this roster. Which brings us to Brock Purdy...
There are few doubts that Purdy is a top 15 QB who can perform at an elite level when all the pieces are in place (see 2022 and 2023). But this year, with a middling OL and dearth of talent around him, Brock became a slightly above replacement level QB. I believe Kyle and John when they say that want Brock to be here as long as they are; it's tough to find QBs that are as solid as him. But at what price?
My belief is that Purdy is about to be a victim of circumstance after this front office was dragged in negotiations by Aiyuk, Deebo, Trent, Bosa, etc. The Niners almost certainly will have a ceiling above which they won't go. My guess? It will be around $51M AAV with ~$100M guaranteed; roughly what Jalen Hurts got. Now Purdy is fully justified to ask for more, much more. In his short career, his outplayed QBs like Trevor Lawrence, Tua, Dak and (I'd argue) who are being paid astronomical sums of money.
But here's the Niners' calculus: if you pay Brock now, will you be putting him in a position to succeed when it will likely take at least two years to get this roster back in shape? Orrrr...can you accelerate the rebuild massively by moving your most valuable piece for a haul of draft picks?
I believe, that the Niners can get a '25 and '26 first round pick for Purdy. The Giants, Raiders and Colts are all desperate and, as we discussed, Purdy is a top 15 QB who is only 25 years old. If Brock's camp is adamant about $150M guaranteed and the Giants or Raiders come running with the #3 or 6 pick and next year's 1st rounder, how can you say no?
This is why I'm confident that John Lynch hedged during his presser at the combine and said "there are no guarantees that we get something done."
So what would I do? I give Brock a take it or leave it offer: 4 years, $200M and $100M guaranteed. If his camp rejects the offer, I'm immediately calling the Giants and I'm trading Brock for the #3 pick and next year's 1.
The Niners would be armed with the #3, 11, 43, 75, 99 picks. They would have two first rounders next year which would put them in prime position to trade up for their QB of choice (hello Arch Manning, Drew Allar, Garrett Nussmeier, Sam Leavitt, etc.). As for this year, there are plenty of options available: Mac Jones would fit nicely in Kyle's system and we KNOW he loved him coming out in 2021. If not Mac, we can scratch Kyle's itch and bring in Captain Kirk to play this year and as a bridge QB next.
The draft capital would allow the Niners to rebuild a dominant OL and DL and bring much needed youth and speed to WR, RB, LB and the secondary. If they hit on these picks, you can see them even competing next year and setting themselves up for a new run in 2026 and beyond.
THIS IS THE WAY.
Nope!
