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Best draft strategy

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13-take top OT
trade 31
  • All22
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Originally posted by NC49er:
Originally posted by SD49er:
My preference would be a trade down at 13 and 31, depending on the players available at the time of the picks and the type of trade compensation received in return. In looking at general draft philosophy, it depends not just on the first round grades, but also how the team values picks after the first round and into rounds, 2, 3, and 4. If they have a can't miss player with a tremendously high grade who is available at 13, and the grade on that player would be worth foregoing say an extra 2 and 3, then they have to pull the trigger on drafting the player. I'm no GM, but i would think it logically makes sense that if you can draft 3 top 100 players or draft one player at 13, I would take the three players because you are more likely to hit on a star with more picks. The team would also be in a position to pick up more than one starter/contributor. This front office has picked up quality players in every single round of the draft, so more picks would seem to make sense:

Round 1: Bosa, McGlinchy
Round 2: Deebo
Round 3: Fred Warner, Akello Witherspoon, Tarvarius Moore (also Jalen Hurd who I am really excited about but the jury is still out)
Round 4: Wishnowsky (this has been our worst round)
Round 5: Kittle, Greenlaw, Trent Taylor, DJ Reed
Round 6: DJ Jones, Justin Skule
Round 7: Richie James, Julian Taylor, Adrian Colbert
Undrafted Free Agents:

As a final note, I know a lot of people on the zone really want a WR. I get it, it's a sexy position to pick. I am not against picking a WR, if the player has the appropriate grade. But, I firmly believe in drafting best player available in at least the first three rounds. I do not believe in targeting a position - this is how teams get into trouble. Now, if the grade is the same, take the position of need. We don't need a safety, but if you think Earl Thomas is there, the team must pick the safety. I would not take a WR, Corner, or OL at 13 just to take the position - the player should be the BPA no matter what. The only position I would not apply this rule to is QB, unless you believed the QB is better than Jimmy.

I understand your reasoning; however, in your example, if a safety is on the board and let's say he's graded at a 9.0 on a 1-10 scale and we have a safety currently on the team that is graded at a 7.5 or 8.0 and there is a sexy WR that's graded at a 8.5 on the board and our best WR is 8.5 or below why would we draft a safety, that we really don't need in that position but we could really upgrade and compliment Deeboooo & Kittle, Bourne, Hurd at the WR position?

Another scenario; Do we take the best RB in the draft if he's the best player available at 13 or a CB who is 5th best CB in the draft at #13? I'll take the CB all day, we have more than enough guys who can deliver @ RB.

I would not even want Burrow if he fell to us, other than as crazy draft cap/pick exchange, because JG is a proven QB, and we don't need a QB so just because a guy is there I don't think you draft him automatically when you can grab an upgrade in areas of greater need.

If Burrows falls, you take him and trade Jimmy (back to the Pats, probably). No question.
[ Edited by All22 on Apr 18, 2020 at 4:51 PM ]
Originally posted by SD49er:
My preference would be a trade down at 13 and 31, depending on the players available at the time of the picks and the type of trade compensation received in return. In looking at general draft philosophy, it depends not just on the first round grades, but also how the team values picks after the first round and into rounds, 2, 3, and 4. If they have a can't miss player with a tremendously high grade who is available at 13, and the grade on that player would be worth foregoing say an extra 2 and 3, then they have to pull the trigger on drafting the player. I'm no GM, but i would think it logically makes sense that if you can draft 3 top 100 players or draft one player at 13, I would take the three players because you are more likely to hit on a star with more picks. The team would also be in a position to pick up more than one starter/contributor. This front office has picked up quality players in every single round of the draft, so more picks would seem to make sense:

Round 1: Bosa, McGlinchy
Round 2: Deebo
Round 3: Fred Warner, Akello Witherspoon, Tarvarius Moore (also Jalen Hurd who I am really excited about but the jury is still out)
Round 4: Wishnowsky (this has been our worst round)
Round 5: Kittle, Greenlaw, Trent Taylor, DJ Reed
Round 6: DJ Jones, Justin Skule
Round 7: Richie James, Julian Taylor, Adrian Colbert
Undrafted Free Agents:

As a final note, I know a lot of people on the zone really want a WR. I get it, it's a sexy position to pick. I am not against picking a WR, if the player has the appropriate grade. But, I firmly believe in drafting best player available in at least the first three rounds. I do not believe in targeting a position - this is how teams get into trouble. Now, if the grade is the same, take the position of need. We don't need a safety, but if you think Earl Thomas is there, the team must pick the safety. I would not take a WR, Corner, or OL at 13 just to take the position - the player should be the BPA no matter what. The only position I would not apply this rule to is QB, unless you believed the QB is better than Jimmy.



Agreed

Still think both 1st round picks should be traded down
Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by NC49er:
Originally posted by SD49er:
My preference would be a trade down at 13 and 31, depending on the players available at the time of the picks and the type of trade compensation received in return. In looking at general draft philosophy, it depends not just on the first round grades, but also how the team values picks after the first round and into rounds, 2, 3, and 4. If they have a can't miss player with a tremendously high grade who is available at 13, and the grade on that player would be worth foregoing say an extra 2 and 3, then they have to pull the trigger on drafting the player. I'm no GM, but i would think it logically makes sense that if you can draft 3 top 100 players or draft one player at 13, I would take the three players because you are more likely to hit on a star with more picks. The team would also be in a position to pick up more than one starter/contributor. This front office has picked up quality players in every single round of the draft, so more picks would seem to make sense:

Round 1: Bosa, McGlinchy
Round 2: Deebo
Round 3: Fred Warner, Akello Witherspoon, Tarvarius Moore (also Jalen Hurd who I am really excited about but the jury is still out)
Round 4: Wishnowsky (this has been our worst round)
Round 5: Kittle, Greenlaw, Trent Taylor, DJ Reed
Round 6: DJ Jones, Justin Skule
Round 7: Richie James, Julian Taylor, Adrian Colbert
Undrafted Free Agents:

As a final note, I know a lot of people on the zone really want a WR. I get it, it's a sexy position to pick. I am not against picking a WR, if the player has the appropriate grade. But, I firmly believe in drafting best player available in at least the first three rounds. I do not believe in targeting a position - this is how teams get into trouble. Now, if the grade is the same, take the position of need. We don't need a safety, but if you think Earl Thomas is there, the team must pick the safety. I would not take a WR, Corner, or OL at 13 just to take the position - the player should be the BPA no matter what. The only position I would not apply this rule to is QB, unless you believed the QB is better than Jimmy.

I understand your reasoning; however, in your example, if a safety is on the board and let's say he's graded at a 9.0 on a 1-10 scale and we have a safety currently on the team that is graded at a 7.5 or 8.0 and there is a sexy WR that's graded at a 8.5 on the board and our best WR is 8.5 or below why would we draft a safety, that we really don't need in that position but we could really upgrade and compliment Deeboooo & Kittle, Bourne, Hurd at the WR position?

Another scenario; Do we take the best RB in the draft if he's the best player available at 13 or a CB who is 5th best CB in the draft at #13? I'll take the CB all day, we have more than enough guys who can deliver @ RB.

I would not even want Burrow if he fell to us, other than as crazy draft cap/pick exchange, because JG is a proven QB, and we don't need a QB so just because a guy is there I don't think you draft him automatically when you can grab an upgrade in areas of greater need.

If Burrows falls, you take him and trade Jimmy (back to the Pats, probably). No question.

To answer your questions NC, I would still choose the safety in your hypothetical because the team should generally go for the best player available. There are clearly exceptions to the rule, which you raise in your running back scenario but I think the rb hypothetical doesn't address the most important part of the analysis. I don't think it matters whether the player is the first or fifth best prospect at any respective position - what matters is whether the player is the best player available at the time we are picking. Now, I think you are correct that the talent on the team must at least be considered, but the amount of roster change over every year really eliminates that risk. Teams think in multi year cycles as opposed to one year cycles. Later rounds are for filling in positions of need while early rounds require taking the best player, in my opinion.

As to the last example, if Shanahan thought Burrow was better than Jimmy then he would be stupid not to take him. I love Jimmy, and want Jimmy on this team. But, as a talent evaluator Shanahan would have to bring the best player in.
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by thl408:
I'm not a fan of using #13 on a WR if it's supposedly a deep WR class. Not downplaying the need for a WR, just don't think it needs to be at #13. I'd be fine with trading out of #13, move down to 20 something overall, get a day 2 pick. No idea if that works out value wise.
#20 something
#31
round 2 pick
day 3 picks
That should be a rookie class we can get excited about.

this too is my opinion on best strategy

That is exactly my latest mock draft
we trade down to #21 with eagles who give their #53 (and maybe another late round for Goodwin ?) for the WR they covet
we draft j jones OL
#31 we trade down with colts who want their QB with 5th year option and maybe trade down again or take BWRA (Mims ?)
Originally posted by Bobdawg78:
What do you guys think would be the best draft strategy for this up coming draft? I personally hope we trade down from 13, unless someone is there at 13, that absolutely should not be there, other wise I would trade down and get more picks in rounds 2-4. To me CB is a huge priority with Sherman+Witherspoon both being a FA after 2020, along with K'Waun Williams.

Strategy: 5 picks at least
WR/DB - Speed and fits in the scheme.
Get OL depth
Get Edge/DL depth
Get TE depth
Glad they're thinking of trading down and trading guys.
Originally posted by 49Fever:
Originally posted by krizay:
Originally posted by thl408:
I'm not a fan of using #13 on a WR if it's supposedly a deep WR class. Not downplaying the need for a WR, just don't think it needs to be at #13. I'd be fine with trading out of #13, move down to 20 something overall, get a day 2 pick. No idea if that works out value wise.
#20 something
#31
round 2 pick
day 3 picks
That should be a rookie class we can get excited about.

this too is my opinion on best strategy

That is exactly my latest mock draft
we trade down to #21 with eagles who give their #53 (and maybe another late round for Goodwin ?) for the WR they covet
we draft j jones OL
#31 we trade down with colts who want their QB with 5th year option and maybe trade down again or take BWRA (Mims ?)

We have 7 picks; with pick 13 and our second 5th round pick we have better value than if we drafted at the 31st pick in each round. I understand the desire to add even more draft picks because we all know there are rarely any "sure things" in the draft, but why are so many people excited to get out of the 13th spot? There are a consensus 16 "blue chip" guys in this draft; we shouldn't even be in the position to get one of those guys, but we let one of our best players walk to have a chance at one of them. I guess it's just me but I'd feel let down if we let Buckner walk just to pass on a top tier guy to move back in the draft and get 2 2nd/3rd tier guys. I think they should draft any of those guys(preferably OT or WR), then trade 31 to get another pick or 2. Guess I wouldn't be bummed if they traded either/both but they would need to nail all those picks then! Imagine if they traded back and only picked up a bunch of mediocre role players?
Trade the 13th back and pick up a 2nd and possibly plus and draft WR Denzel Mins. Then trade back the 31st and pick up a 2nd plus and pick up a good O- lineman or two or CB. If Mims gets picked before the team is able to pick him then trade that pick back again and draft WR Chase Claypool.

The team ends up with a big fast outside wide out, a good O- lineman or two, and a corner. That's 3 to 4 starters in the first couple of rounds to plug into much needed holes.
[ Edited by Niner4ever on Apr 21, 2020 at 3:29 PM ]
Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Trade the 13th back and pick up a 2nd and possibly plus and draft WR Denzel Mins. Then trade back the 31st and pick up a 2nd plus and pick up a good O- lineman or two or CB. If Mims gets picked before the team is able to pick him then trade that pick back again and draft WR Chase Claypool.

The team ends up with a big fast outside wide out, a good O- lineman or two, and a corner. That's 3 to 4 starters in the first couple of rounds to plug into much needed holes.

Not a fan of Claypool but evaluating wide outs is not my forte. I thought will fuller would be the man.

Originally posted by pdizo916:
Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Trade the 13th back and pick up a 2nd and possibly plus and draft WR Denzel Mins. Then trade back the 31st and pick up a 2nd plus and pick up a good O- lineman or two or CB. If Mims gets picked before the team is able to pick him then trade that pick back again and draft WR Chase Claypool.

The team ends up with a big fast outside wide out, a good O- lineman or two, and a corner. That's 3 to 4 starters in the first couple of rounds to plug into much needed holes.

Not a fan of Claypool but evaluating wide outs is not my forte. I thought will fuller would be the man.

This thing is a crap shoot there is no certainty in any round as you may know. Claypool is big and fast and can block in this run oriented offense and is said to be raw in potential still, one which can be coached up by Welker and exploited by Shanahan.

Be mindful that we have the running game, a #1 in Kittle, and a #1A in Samuel. Team needs a guy to open it up and make a few up field catches a game. This guy or Mims posses that while simultaneously possessing a big red zone body.
[ Edited by Niner4ever on Apr 21, 2020 at 3:57 PM ]
I hope we would trade down both 13 and 31 with the aim of having 4 or 5 picks in the Top 100. If from the 4 or 5, we can end up with 2 or 3 1st year contributors like Warner or Deebo or Greenwell, we should then be in a solid position to challenge once again
  • dmax
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take ruggs..then trade that 31st pick to get more picks
Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Glad they're thinking of trading down and trading guys.

I really don't see the need for both. Frankly it doesn't make sense to trade down with our first round considering the plethora of guys who are on the block.

Trade guys for picks and make the two first round picks! Don't trade the players and trade the picks too.
Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:
Originally posted by Niner4ever:
Glad they're thinking of trading down and trading guys.

I really don't see the need for both. Frankly it doesn't make sense to trade down with our first round considering the plethora of guys who are on the block.

Trade guys for picks and make the two first round picks! Don't trade the players and trade the picks too.
You can make all sorts of trades to get more picks in rounds 2, 3, and 4.
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