State of the Team, Roster Analysis, & Needs | Page 3

OnTheClock · 2018-10-10T16:33:09-07:00

STATE OF THE TEAM The Negative: It's abundantly clear we have a lot more holes on the roster than many would've liked to admit going into the season. Of course, some voids -- such as a pass rusher -- we all knew was an issue dating back to last season. It would've been nice for us to use capital towards certain areas but understandably, the team had to evaluate its roster in year one and it wasn't going to be able to address everything after that in this recent off-season. The Positive: One strong off-season to start 2019 could definitely put us on the path towards the playoffs, and a silver lining is that the hype and media frenzy should be far less than it was going into the year. I hated the expectations put on us because we had potential, but it was going to take some luck for us to do some real damage considering the issues we still had. Even though we are unlikely to finish with a good record still this year, we should still end up with a decently high pick to acquire a lot more talent. Plus, I think this is the year we finally use our cap space we carry over to add difference-making players. Our coaches and FO have seen with their own eyes what we lack and these guys do know football and have already picked up some talented players. That said, I personally do trust that we'll overcome the obstacles and get back on track. Summary statement: Bottom line is that Lynch and Shanahan were given six year deals for a reason and they're not going anywhere for the next two years at least. They've taken some risks that didn't pan out, but they seem more apt to learn from those situations that our prior regime. Let's hope they do. ROSTER ANALYSIS Quarterback I'm not sure if it was the pressure (boy does that word work in many ways -- media, fans, poor pass blocking from the OL), or just trying to play within the system, but I believe Jimmy is still not at his peak within the Shanahan offense. I felt like he was on the cusp, but we'll have to wait for that to come to fruition. We do have a strong backup in Beathard and we will get to see how he grows throughout this season. He's had just 10 starts to his name and can make all the throws when given the time to do so. Obviously, with barely over half a season of starts, he's going to still be falling short in some areas that often develop with more experience in the NFL. Climbing the pocket, developing that internal clock, and to an extent decision-making all improve over time with most young QBs. So do turnovers. We are good at this position for the foreseeable future. Running Back Breida is a star but his physical style at his frame make him a definite injury risk. It's extremely unfortunate McKinnon went down as they would've been a great tandem both healthy. With these health risks, we absolutely need to take a running back next year wherever that player might be a BPA or sign another one. I don't trust Jerrick coming back from an ACL and we need speed to threaten on the edge. Morris is fine inside, but just not the outside threat or pass receiving matchup problem as someone else could be. Honestly, I think we should go three-deep with speed/explosiveness at running back and let Juice be the heavy guy from time to time. I like Jeff Wilson a lot on the practice squad and hope he can show in practices that he deserves to get a shot on the active roster. We'll see what happens this week and beyond. Receiver This unit is currently in shambles. Garcon's sticky hands, speed, and durability are all falling off dramatically. Frankly, he doesn't deserve a roster spot next year. Pettis is promising, Taylor is good for using in short, tight spots to move the chains, and Goodwin is our best receiver that makes teams respect us deep. Bourne is solid for a young player but still has a lot of room to improve and has focus drops. Overall, we have no one talented enough to scare teams or anyone with height to challenge teams in the redzone. We need multiple new playmakers and I wouldn't be surprised to see a player or two in this group traded -- Garcon and Taylor seem like prime trade bait for any team willing to bite. Tight End Kittle is borderline elite player early on and clearly our most dangerous weapon in the passing game. Get us another tight end who can block and catch like him and teams won't be able to stop us on the seams. Celek is maddeningly inconsistent and has had injury issues in the past. Wick is all blocking, no hands. O-Line Staley is still a great player, but not getting any younger. McGlinchey will be considered elite if he continues to build on what has been so far a fantastic season. The interior of our line is still a major issue in the passing game. Person, Richburg, and Tomlinson all excel at run blocking, but are conversely, not as good pass blocking, and the first two guys have struggled with injuries. D-Line We need an edge rusher. Two actually. Plain and simple. The interior is stacked with talent between Buckner, Thomas, Day, and Jones, but these guys aren't edge threats and we shouldn't expect them to be. I expect Armstead's large salary to be dumped in the off-season as we let Taylor, Street, and Thomas man the big-end spot and nickel DT positions next season. Linebackers Overall, we have a strong unit. Foster and Warner are great. Smith is OK for now, but we could certainly upgrade, and upgrade for cheaper too. Depth is still an issue -- Coyle, Nzeocha, and Lee all struggle to tackle and from what I've seen, the latter two have not done well on special teams either. Secondary We have the talent at corner. If Mabin continues to emerge, he may have a "stranglehold on the position" that Saleh has said they wanted to see from the guy opposite Sherman. Witherspoon is talented no doubt, but he has major competition, and that's a good thing. DJ Reed has promise, and Ward should be gone after the season. I don't like that we're using Moore at corner -- frankly, with Mabin's emergence, and Reed's experience there, those guys should be the top 4 corners while he works at his best position -- safety. Colbert has been figured out and should be relegated to backup SS in my opinion. He has range, but doesn't wrap up, guesses in coverage, and just doesn't play with the mental discipline or play recognition ability required in this scheme at his position. Special Teams Gould is great, Pinion is above average, and our snapper is fine. Our coverage team however has really fallen off, mainly on punts. We've got to get that corrected. TOP TEAM NEEDS 1. Pass Rusher (LEO DE) As mentioned earlier, it is unquestionably our biggest void on the team. We have no one to take double-teams off of Buckner. One on one, he's typically unblockable. We need another player like that on the edge. Thomas can sometimes be like that inside, but he's almost never used there even on passing downs because we're so awful at DE in general. 2. Red Zone Threat (WR) We absolutely need a jump ball guy with height. Someone who can box out defenders and is considered open whether they're covered or not. Without this type of player, your options are more limited in the RZ. Having this one player opens up things for multiple other guys on offense -- Kittle, Goodwin, and whoever is playing running back all would benefit. 3. Single High Safety (FS) If we don't ever try Moore at this spot, we'll never know if he can be that guy, but if we insist on having him play CB, we need someone else with the range, discipline, and tackling fundamentals necessary being the last line of defense back there. This, in conjunction with need #1, are what make this Cover 3 system run smoothly. 4. OG As previously mentioned, everyone on the interior has struggled pass blocking. Garnett hasn't played, but this was never a strength of his either. I still have high hopes for Magnuson, but we definitely need some competition at the RG spot. Person was signed somewhat out of desperation and he's been solid overall, but we have to protect our investment in Jimmy G by surrounding him with players that give him a lot more time to throw. Additionally, a better OL will prevent us from having to keep Kittle in to block so much, which effectively takes away our best playmaker in the passing game currently. 5. SAM Linebacker (OLB) Smith is currently playing this spot because he's the best we have and most experienced in the scheme. At his current price tag though, there's almost zero chance he returns after this season. We have no one else worthy of starting when he leaves unless Pita were to make major strides, but we should definitely invest in a durable, speedy player who can cover as well as offer some pass rush when asked to do so. 6. RB We saw how the losses of McKinnon and Breida devastated the team's rushing attack. We also have seen how we can't trust a player coming back from injury to perform as good as they used to (see: Garcon). Yes, McKinnon is young but we still need to be prepared to ensure we have the necessary depth to make a run. Good teams have great depth. We're not there yet at all. 7. LT I love Staley but he maybe has one or two years left max. McGlinchey is great and would be a fixture at RT for years to come but we need a starter of the future and whether that's through the draft or free agency, we need to find that guy. Plus we badly need to upgrade the depth of talent at OT. 8. TE Depth Get someone similar to Kittle who has a balance of athleticism and blocking promise to give us a better balance of what we can do up front in 2-TE sets. Celek is actually a decent athlete, but has really struggled to block, leaving the team to take it's top playmaker and keep him blocking due to the failure of the OL to provide adequate time for our QBs to throw. Final statements: We currently only have five 2019 draft picks to work with (1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 6th), hence why I think we'll move some players in the off-season, but we should have well over 50 million in cap space (probably more, right AB?). With that at our disposal, the time will be right to spend some to make this team a threat next year. Again, we have resources, we just need to use them wisely this next off-season.

Oct 11, 2018 at 7:57 AM

#31

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by defenderDX:
that's why expectations in the offseason for your team should always be treated with caution. because that can change in the snap of a finger. or an acl. whatever.

Yup! Our, now 5 year history, is a big reason why I only picked us to win 7 games and that was with a healthy JG. Nope.

Oct 11, 2018 at 8:00 AM

#32

SammyFrancisco
Veteran
Posts: 465

Originally posted by miked1978:
I can't help but think how a legitimate edge pass rusher could help this defense.

Here is where we rank as of week 5:
29th in points per game
7th in rush yards allowed per game
15th in pass yards allowed per game
11th total yards per game
17th in 3rd down conversions

Believe it or not we are almost a top 10 defense if you are looking at yards. Another positive note and I cant find the stat but saw it on twitter, we are top 10 in allowing the least explosive plays.

We are dead last in turnover margin per game. That means we are turning it over more than we are getting turnovers. This has more to do with the offense turning the ball over too much and if we improve in this area I guarantee we wouldn't be 29th pts given up.

A positive on offense is according to PFF we have a top 5 graded offensive line. McClinchey leads the league in run blocking grades.

So there are some positives happening. We just shooting ourselves in the foot by turnovers and injuries.

These stats have been inflated by context I think. We are pretty good against the run (as we should be with 4 DTs on up front!). Thing is, the Minny and KC games, they built such big leads early that they went into clock-kill mode in the second halfs. I don't think we're anywhere near Top 10 when it matters. 17th in 3rd-down D is probably the most representative stat.

Oct 11, 2018 at 8:04 AM

#33

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by miked1978:
I can't help but think how a legitimate edge pass rusher could help this defense.

Here is where we rank as of week 5:
29th in points per game
7th in rush yards allowed per game
15th in pass yards allowed per game
11th total yards per game
17th in 3rd down conversions

Believe it or not we are almost a top 10 defense if you are looking at yards. Another positive note and I cant find the stat but saw it on twitter, we are top 10 in allowing the least explosive plays.

We are dead last in turnover margin per game. That means we are turning it over more than we are getting turnovers. This has more to do with the offense turning the ball over too much and if we improve in this area I guarantee we wouldn't be 29th pts given up.

A positive on offense is according to PFF we have a top 5 graded offensive line. McClinchey leads the league in run blocking grades.

So there are some positives happening. We just shooting ourselves in the foot by turnovers and injuries.

Yeah, we're dead last with only 3 forced TO's which is historically bad (our team history). It was a big issue last year too.

No doubt we're great against the run...we've got 1,200 pounds of beef up front in a 4-3 with Foster and Warner covering up any holes plus a great DL rotation. But unfortunately, it's at the expense of no pass rush, like you noted and that has a massive ripple effect.

I have no doubt we have talent on defense and health permitting, is probably top 10-15 at least for talent but missing two critical pieces (a few excellent ER's and another veteran CB).

The real concerns lie with Saleh, fundamentals, and the lack of development for many of the position groups via poor position coaches...player regression.

[ Edited by NCommand on Oct 11, 2018 at 8:09 AM ]

Oct 11, 2018 at 8:06 AM

#34

NCommand
Hall of Fame
Posts: 123,365

Originally posted by SammyFrancisco:
These stats have been inflated by context I think. We are pretty good against the run (as we should be with 4 DTs on up front!). Thing is, the Minny and KC games, they built such big leads early that they went into clock-kill mode in the second halfs. I don't think we're anywhere near Top 10 when it matters. 17th in 3rd-down D is probably the most representative stat.

Oct 11, 2018 at 8:50 AM

#35

Giants9ersfan
Veteran
Posts: 2,692

Originally posted by pickle:
Originally posted by ChazBoner:
9ers would get whooped by Alabama right now.

Ridiculous comment. The greatest college team is no match for the worst pro team.

Absolutely! I said that about the mid-2000's atrocious team under Dennis Erickson and how Pete Carroll's USC teams would destroy us. My dad knocked some sense into me.

Any NFL franchise has College All-stars from top to bottom. So taking ONE college team with, at most, 7-8 guys (on the whole team) that will sniff an NFL roster spot and putting them up against the WORST NFL team...they would get their asses BEAT!

Foolishness.

Oct 11, 2018 at 9:38 AM

#36

badguy_1
Veteran
Posts: 1,376

Wish we would've taken Malik Hooker instead of Solobust Thomas.. Would've been set at single high safety for years.

Oct 11, 2018 at 9:48 AM

#37

OnTheClock
Hall of Fame
Posts: 38,728

Originally posted by defenderDX:
BOTTOM LINE REVISED

That every single block of text you wrote doesn't mean jack s**t if we start each and every season injured this much from top to bottom!

Which is precisely why we seriously need to upgrade the quality of our depth as well.

Oct 11, 2018 at 9:49 AM

#38

susweel
Hall of Nepal
Posts: 122,268

Many of the same holes we had last year, shannylynch little to nothing address that.

Oct 11, 2018 at 10:08 AM

#39

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,756

Originally posted by susweel:
Many of the same holes we had last year, shannylynch little to nothing address that.

Not entirely true. Going into the offseason our biggest needs were Edge Rusher, CB, OG, WR, RB, LB

They addressed everything but edge rusher and WR. Yeah they should have done something with those positions but our roster is a lot better then what it was 2 years ago and i'll give them this coming offseason before I start to criticize their rebuilding plan.

Oct 11, 2018 at 10:21 AM

#40

49Fever
Veteran
Posts: 1,763

The biggest problem this team has ? Here's my 2 cents
I think it's their schemes on offense and defense
They tried to upper the complexity of it this offseason but they have too much young players that aren't used to the systems
I think they finished great last year cos kyle adapted his scheme for Garoppolo and the result was great
This year they were and are still on the learning curve and so they overthink too much
And i dont even expect us to master it in 2019
Look the job mc vay is doing with Goff : he knows Goff has to see the all field from the snap if not he's confused so he adapts his scheme to his players
The problem with kyle and saleh is that they expect players to adapt to the scheme.
What solomon is still doing has a down lineman. I totally agree with donte whitner he's a 3-4 OLB à la Ahmad Brooks... etc

Oct 11, 2018 at 11:13 AM

#41

swaccmac1
Veteran
Posts: 1,051

can we just get a little good fortune sometime soon please .

Oct 11, 2018 at 11:16 AM

#42

SteveYoung
Member
Posts: 3,697

Originally posted by miked1978:
Not entirely true. Going into the offseason our biggest needs were Edge Rusher, CB, OG, WR, RB, LB

They addressed everything but edge rusher and WR. Yeah they should have done something with those positions but our roster is a lot better then what it was 2 years ago and i'll give them this coming offseason before I start to criticize their rebuilding plan.

We traded up in the 2nd for a receiver.

Oct 11, 2018 at 11:27 AM

#43

Heroism
Veteran
Posts: 26,928

I agree with everything except for SAM. I'd put that last. We've all seen by now how trivial that position is. In fact, if they plan to keep him around, I'm fine with keeping Malcolm Smith there.

Oct 11, 2018 at 11:56 AM

#44

miked1978
Veteran
Posts: 12,756

Originally posted by 49Fever:
The biggest problem this team has ? Here's my 2 cents
I think it's their schemes on offense and defense
They tried to upper the complexity of it this offseason but they have too much young players that aren't used to the systems
I think they finished great last year cos kyle adapted his scheme for Garoppolo and the result was great
This year they were and are still on the learning curve and so they overthink too much
And i dont even expect us to master it in 2019
Look the job mc vay is doing with Goff : he knows Goff has to see the all field from the snap if not he's confused so he adapts his scheme to his players
The problem with kyle and saleh is that they expect players to adapt to the scheme.
What solomon is still doing has a down lineman. I totally agree with donte whitner he's a 3-4 OLB à la Ahmad Brooks... etc

Solly as a 3-4 OLB

Can't say I agree with that.

Oct 11, 2018 at 11:57 AM

#45

Ladoskiwoski
Veteran
Posts: 880

Originally posted by ChazBoner:
9ers would get whooped by Alabama right now.

wont happen