John Lynch - 49ers GM

Is John Lynch good at selecting first year players? How do we grade him?

Currently, every year each team is given 7 draft picks. Every year our team needs to select 7 NFL caliper players to make the team. The team does not have to be great at drafting, it needs to be great at evaluating players and understand the value the rest of the NFL has for each player. Majority of draft evaluators gave the 49ers an average to poor grade for the 2022 draft. Why a bad grade? Usually, it is because we did not draft the best player available or the grader thinks we did not draft a position of "NEED".

How do the evaluators know the value of a player? We all know the best player in the draft and that player is drafted number 1, except this year when the top player was drafted second (Aiden Hutchinson) or 14th Kyle Hamilton). I wanted to get a better understanding of player valuation in the draft. The only true valuation for a player would be compiled by gathering every team's big board.

The internet has enabled us a way to create a decent valuation. Afif Hasan, writer for The Athletic, over the last few years, has created a composite big board. He was able to compile 80 big boards to create his composite. This composite lists 300 players. Also, there is the NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, which uses 68 big boards to create its composite. The NFLMockDraftDatabase.com has over 600 players ranked in its list. Dane Brugler creates the biggest board, The Beast. He makes an effort to rank every player eligible for the draft, there are over 1000 players ranked in The Beast. He has player descriptions on about 400 players and rankings them all by position. Using the composites gives us a large group of data points to create a value of a player.

Now we can valuate Lynch on his Draft picks and UDFA signees. Every year we need at least 7 NFL first year caliper players added to the rooster.

Arif Hasan Composite Rankings

Drake Jackson 59
Davis-Price 230
Danny Gray 137
Spencer Burford 167
Samuel Womack
Nick Zakelj 260
Kalia Davis 228
Tariq Castro-Fields 144
Brock Purdy 290

According to Hasan's composite, the 49ers drafted 4 players in the top 200. Based in Hasan's composite, of the 23 first year players brought in for training camp, John Lynch brought in 7 draftable players. Not good.

Pro Football Focus Rankings

Drake Jackson 43
Donovan West 80
Danny Gray 97
Spencer Burford 137
Tariq Castro-Fields 155
Jason Poe 163
Brock Prudy 165
Kalia Davis 166
Tyrion Davis-Price 172
Leon O'Neal Jr. 197
Nick Zakelj 253

With PFF values, Lynch brought in 11 draftable players, 10 top 200 players, and 3 top 100 players. 3 of our UDFA's are considered draftable players. Lynch is looking good. Now, 7 of these players need to make the active list for opening day.

Through this process, I will try to figure out which big board valuator is the best. Right now, I am hoping PFF is.

This is the beginning of the evaluation process. We are at the pre-playing part. The next part is the number of snaps and play valuation (PFF grade). I previously wrote a about the 2021 draft class compared to the best available players. With that comparison, The 49ers draft picks played 1000 more snaps and PFF grade was 5 point higher. The 49ers class has a 61 grade, which means that on average the class is playing at a NFL level.

By the end of the players' third year, we should have enough information to rate our General Manager's first year player acquisitions. To receive a positive grade, there needs to be at least 7 players with 400 plus snaps and a PFF 65 plus grade.

I plan on continuing supplying draft and player valuation information.

NOTES: Hoping POE makes the active roster by the middle of the season. I want him to replace Trent Williams as our motion lineman. PFF thought he could be the best blocking fullback in the draft.

Also, hoping Samuel Womack is the starting slot-corner in 2023. Lynch needs him to be good. He was not ranked on Hasas's composite or PFF's big board. Lynch should be able to put Womack on the practice squad. Dane Bruglar ranked him as the 45th corner. Bruglar wrote this about Womack, "Womack will be overlooked due to his size, but his competitive nature, body control and on-ball production belong in the NFL, ideally suited in the nickel."

A look at our roster will answer your question. The 49ers have a top 5 roster with all pros and pro bowlers at almost every position group.

And why are you saying Lynch needs to hit on 7 players? I've studied the draft over the years and if any GM hits on 3 or 4 players then that's a great draft for the team. Most teams only have 2 or 3 players that pan out and some don't have any. I'm not talking just pro bowl caliber players either, i'm also including role players when i say "hit on"

The draft is a gamble. You'll never know who'll pan out.

Originally posted by miked1978:
A look at our roster will answer your question. The 49ers have a top 5 roster with all pros and pro bowlers at almost every position group.

And why are you saying Lynch needs to hit on 7 players? I've studied the draft over the years and if any GM hits on 3 or 4 players then that's a great draft for the team. Most teams only have 2 or 3 players that pan out and some don't have any. I'm not talking just pro bowl caliber players either, i'm also including role players when i say "hit on"

Originally posted by miked1978:
A look at our roster will answer your question. The 49ers have a top 5 roster with all pros and pro bowlers at almost every position group.

And why are you saying Lynch needs to hit on 7 players? I've studied the draft over the years and if any GM hits on 3 or 4 players then that's a great draft for the team. Most teams only have 2 or 3 players that pan out and some don't have any. I'm not talking just pro bowl caliber players either, i'm also including role players when i say "hit on"

This is what I've been saying, you don't need to hit on every pick, which is near impossible, to be a good or great GM, John has done a terrific job, hit on 2-3 players a draft, and you're in a good spot, usually 35% hit rate is what is considered a good GM hit rate.

In Shanahans interview while describing how Aiyuk went a little astray prior to camp last year he revealed that Lynch was running suicide sprints up the hill against Aiyuk and Lance I think. What other GM in the league does this?

Our GM can beat up your GM :P

Originally posted by WINiner:
In Shanahans interview while describing how Aiyuk went a little astray prior to camp last year he revealed that Lynch was running suicide sprints up the hill against Aiyuk and Lance I think. What other GM in the league does this?

Our GM can beat up your GM :P

Yessir he has a gold jacket for a reason. Legendary player.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by miked1978:
A look at our roster will answer your question. The 49ers have a top 5 roster with all pros and pro bowlers at almost every position group.

And why are you saying Lynch needs to hit on 7 players? I've studied the draft over the years and if any GM hits on 3 or 4 players then that's a great draft for the team. Most teams only have 2 or 3 players that pan out and some don't have any. I'm not talking just pro bowl caliber players either, i'm also including role players when i say "hit on"

This is what I've been saying, you don't need to hit on every pick, which is near impossible, to be a good or great GM, John has done a terrific job, hit on 2-3 players a draft, and you're in a good spot, usually 35% hit rate is what is considered a good GM hit rate.

Exactly this. Obviously you hope most are at the top end because the talent ceiling and costs. But a hit is a hit.

All Pro in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th along with countless hits

Originally posted by Hoovtrain:
All Pro in 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th along with countless hits

You tell 'em Hoov!

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by WINiner:
In Shanahans interview while describing how Aiyuk went a little astray prior to camp last year he revealed that Lynch was running suicide sprints up the hill against Aiyuk and Lance I think. What other GM in the league does this?

Our GM can beat up your GM :P

Yessir he has a gold jacket for a reason. Legendary player.

a gold jacket does not make an elite gm. joe montana has a gold jacket and was a terrible tv guy

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by WINiner:
In Shanahans interview while describing how Aiyuk went a little astray prior to camp last year he revealed that Lynch was running suicide sprints up the hill against Aiyuk and Lance I think. What other GM in the league does this?

Our GM can beat up your GM :P

Yessir he has a gold jacket for a reason. Legendary player.

a gold jacket does not make an elite gm. joe montana has a gold jacket and was a terrible tv guy

Cc, I hope you are sitting down before you read the next line..... you said nothing wrong.

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:

Originally posted by WINiner:
In Shanahans interview while describing how Aiyuk went a little astray prior to camp last year he revealed that Lynch was running suicide sprints up the hill against Aiyuk and Lance I think. What other GM in the league does this?

Our GM can beat up your GM :P

Yessir he has a gold jacket for a reason. Legendary player.

a gold jacket does not make an elite gm. joe montana has a gold jacket and was a terrible tv guy

The dynamics of the HC/GM are that Shanahan is responsible for the offense and Lynch is responsible for the defense. Because John is the active GM, he is also responsible for the contracts of offensive players as well. So I can see a little how you could put the entire roster solely on Lynch's shoulders. However, when it comes to the defenses that John Lynch has put together, he has done a really good job. Over the last 3 seasons, we have fielded a top 10 defense in terms of yards per game allowed and top 10 in points per game allowed in 2 of the last 3. This defense looks as promising, if not more, than it did going into 2019.

Originally posted by cciowa:
a gold jacket does not make an elite gm. joe montana has a gold jacket and was a terrible tv guy

John Elway is a gold jacket guy that owned a lot of car dealerships though.

Originally posted by AB81Rules:

Originally posted by miked1978:
A look at our roster will answer your question. The 49ers have a top 5 roster with all pros and pro bowlers at almost every position group.

And why are you saying Lynch needs to hit on 7 players? I've studied the draft over the years and if any GM hits on 3 or 4 players then that's a great draft for the team. Most teams only have 2 or 3 players that pan out and some don't have any. I'm not talking just pro bowl caliber players either, i'm also including role players when i say "hit on"

This is what I've been saying, you don't need to hit on every pick, which is near impossible, to be a good or great GM, John has done a terrific job, hit on 2-3 players a draft, and you're in a good spot, usually 35% hit rate is what is considered a good GM hit rate.

Agree and I'll just add that he's hit on some undrafted players, and that's pretty rare in my opinion. Bourne, Brieda, Azeez come to mind. I think it takes real GM skills to spot guys like Kittle in the 5th round, or Mitchell in the 6th. Picking Bosa in the first round is a no brainer - in a lot of ways. Getting a DJ Jones in the 6th and other players like him in day 3 picks every year on a consistent basis is astounding.