John Lynch - 49ers GM

Why aren't we bringing in Jordan Matthews in for a work out? He was pretty solid in philly. Just a thought

Originally posted by Ensatsu:
it is all crap data, unless we come to a universal agreement on what success even means.

Some people already call Solomon Thomas a bust, and other guys think he is a solid starter who can run stop.

Most of the data suggests that drafting is largely luck. There isn't much correlation from one draft to another. You have teams that will kill it in a draft for a few years and then regress to the mean. Even "great" GMs blow entire drafts if they stay in their positions long enough.

Fans have this notion that one GM or another has the secret sauce but it still mostly comes down to luck as well as the ability to actually coach up players which doesn't get nearly enough emphasis. You could have 20 different teams draft a player and likely wind up with about 20 different career outcomes based on how that player is coached and utilized in whatever system that team is running.

This is a pretty good article on the subject.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

Originally posted by cali2COniner:
Why aren't we bringing in Jordan Matthews in for a work out? He was pretty solid in philly. Just a thought

He's an injury prone slot receiver with questionable hands.

What most people fail to realize people are complaining about lynch baalke is when he drafts for the past two season who goes for a position we already have instead of a position of need .then when he signs a free agent they are not upgraded but they are a downgrade.to be honest I put this on Jed .kyle was a good hirer ,lynch hell no ,.i wish Jed would stay away from people who played in the nfc south trying to run the team ...keep Kyle trash lynch were he belongs ..he basically the new version of Matt millen who drafts below average lineman

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by cali2COniner:

Why aren't we bringing in Jordan Matthews in for a work out? He was pretty solid in philly. Just a thought

He's an injury prone slot receiver with questionable hands.

Wow, that sounds like a bargain...

We don't need nobody we got Trent Taylor

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by cali2COniner:
Why aren't we bringing in Jordan Matthews in for a work out? He was pretty solid in philly. Just a thought

He's an injury prone slot receiver with questionable hands.

His career is done.

Originally posted by 15crabtree:

What most people fail to realize people are complaining about lynch baalke is when he drafts for the past two season who goes for a position we already have instead of a position of need .then when he signs a free agent they are not upgraded but they are a downgrade.to be honest I put this on Jed .kyle was a good hirer ,lynch hell no ,.i wish Jed would stay away from people who played in the nfc south trying to run the team ...keep Kyle trash lynch were he belongs ..he basically the new version of Matt millen who drafts below average lineman

if you think lynch is the guy calling all the shots as far and the draft and FA go.

Originally posted by Giedi:

I still think Solomon will be an outstanding 3-tech. I can see what you see on that. Now all we need is an edge rusher. It's still too early to grade our GM in my opinion, but doing the Baalke ACL thing and wasting a 4th rounder this year is not something I'll give a good grade for.

Hated the pick because he was injured,this draft was so light on actual good edge rushers and you had to pay to get one.

Landry was pick in the 2nd and Adrian key 4th or 5th round

Originally posted by kazak13:

just wish we would of traded for Mack and Gordon.. maybe add Bell in the mix and i think we would be a contender..

Yeah I mean we should have gone after Donald as well...people simply aren't realistic. This isn't madden.

Originally posted by LifelongNiner:

I'm convinced anyone down on Lynch and Shanahan doesn't really follow what's going on with many other teams in the NFL.

Truth.

Originally posted by 15crabtree:

Landry was pick in the 2nd and Adrian key 4th or 5th round

Yeah Key looks amazing...if lynch drafted him you'd be b***hing about him after two weeks and no sacks


As far as Landry goes he was drafted ahead of us in the 2nd they weren't gonna spend a top 10 pick on a guy who's reportedly got bad knees (and I wanted him). I mean I might as well b***h that they didn't draft Myles Garnett or Bradley Chubb.

Originally posted by 15crabtree:

What most people fail to realize people are complaining about lynch baalke is when he drafts for the past two season who goes for a position we already have instead of a position of need .then when he signs a free agent they are not upgraded but they are a downgrade.to be honest I put this on Jed .kyle was a good hirer ,lynch hell no ,.i wish Jed would stay away from people who played in the nfc south trying to run the team ...keep Kyle trash lynch were he belongs ..he basically the new version of Matt millen who drafts below average lineman

This is a lot of words to say nothing. Not sure what people are supposed to realize from such vague statements. Are you suggesting all his free agent signings were downgrades? That would be wrong. If he drafted a player of need and he busted you would be accusing him of reaching or critizing him for bypassing superior players.

Our roster was so depleted when he and Kyle took over that there really weren't too many spots that weren't a position of need.

Not to mention that a lot of what Lynch does is based on input from the coaching staff and what they desire. You can't fully condem one and exonerate the other.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Most of the data suggests that drafting is largely luck. There isn't much correlation from one draft to another. You have teams that will kill it in a draft for a few years and then regress to the mean. Even "great" GMs blow entire drafts if they stay in their positions long enough.

Fans have this notion that one GM or another has the secret sauce but it still mostly comes down to luck as well as the ability to actually coach up players which doesn't get nearly enough emphasis. You could have 20 different teams draft a player and likely wind up with about 20 different career outcomes based on how that player is coached and utilized in whatever system that team is running.

This is a pretty good article on the subject.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/

Great 538 article read. But I think the 538 article is focusing on average vs outliers. If you look at outliers like say the Patriots, you may find something else. Also the draft is one third of how you build a ball club. There is also free agency and trades. So the 538 article is only focusing on 1/3rd of the football club building process.