Originally posted by theduke85:
Yeah, I get what you're saying, and I do agree that the 49ers will still try to win as many games as they can. But this year, I think they'll be inclined to gamble more. Let me try to explain where I'm coming from. Let's say you could come up with an objective way of gauging how much a player contributes to your team. You break his impact into one of the following categories (listed in order of impact):
Significant
Solid
Marginal
No Impact
Suppose you have 52 players on your roster picked out. The last one comes to the final wide receiver. Let's say it comes down to DeAndrew White (unproven rookie) and Brandon Lloyd (known-quantity veteran).
Brandon Lloyd doesn't really have a ton of upside anymore. You're 90% certain he's going to be a "Marginal" talent on the team. There's a 5% chance he provides "No Impact", and there's a 5% chance he exceeds expectations and provides a "Solid" contribution. What you see is what you get.
Then you look at DeAndrew White. White is a wild card. We have no idea what to expect from him. Perhaps he won't develop at all during the season, and struggle with adjusting to NFL life (route-running, learning playbook, adjusting to not being the best athlete on the field anymore, etc). White is more volatile. There's a 60% chance he provides "No Impact", there's a 20% chance he provides "Marginal" impact, and there's a 20% chance he breaks out and provides "Solid" impact.
So, say this was the 2014 49ers. One of the few holes on the team is a deep threat. Well, Brandon Lloyd doesn't have a lot of upside, but you're really confident he's going to fill that niche. You really need that deep threat. You want to be sure someone fills that void. Because you know what you have with Lloyd, you opt to keep him. You make a slight sacrifice for the future.
Now look at the 2015 49ers. We have lots of holes. Realistically, we're not going to the playoffs. Maybe if a handful of things break our way we'll sneak in. Brandon Lloyd is not the difference between the playoffs or not for this team. It doesn't make sense to keep him, he doesn't move the needle enough to justify keeping a roster spot. However, if DeAndrew White breaks out, maybe he's one of the players that helps us sneak in. White is also much more likely to bust. He might not contribute at all. It's sort of a boom-or-bust approach. Keeping White also helps us in the future.
Right now, I think Baalke is thinking more along the lines of the latter mindset when it comes to roster construction. We're not particularly close to competing, so upside trumps known values.
Very good insight. It looks like our coaches have embraced similar philosophy which should greatly help us in the long run.
I think our team needs more boom bust potential. We cannot play within a score every game this season an expect our dominate defense to carry us.
We lack pass rush so we will need to blitz more and force more turnovers.
They brought in speed and shiftiness with bush, and torrey which is good. The next step would be to let hayne return the kicks. These 3 additions will give us a chance to get more random longshot scores and hopefully bury some teams in the first few quarters and give us some easier wins this season. Every game cannot be a grind without the pass rush we had previously.
Hyde should be able to dominate a few games and get us some wins also which I think should help. He needs to be getting the ball at least 2/3s or more of all the rbs touches. So far given his level of play I havent seen a team stop him for 3 plays in a row yet. Until that happens we should feed him the rock as much as possible.