Greg Roman, is he really good?

no

Originally posted by iLL49er:
NCommand you say a sign of AR play is 3secs ball is out.....you only have about 3 secs in most passing plays in the NFL. I don't think that's a correct assertion

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/

It's not even close to a correct assertion. If you look at this snapshot of 2012 QBs time in pocket for QB's the average for all QBs is 2.73 seconds to throw the ball. Only 4 QBs in the whole list held the ball for 3 seconds or longer and they are all mobile/scrambling QBs.

Tom Brady with his spread passing offense got the ball out the fastest at 2.49 seconds.

So is every team running this so called AR passing game?

Most passing plays are designed to get out quickly unless they are playaction to get a receiver open deep.

PS: This snapshot is obviously before the QB change last year because AS is on the list and Kap is not......

Check out my posts in "analysis seahawks game coaches film" and you'll see why those routes and plays are/aren't working. I'm working on going through other games, but, those plays were simply not there.

Originally posted by aTx49er:
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/11/07/signature-stat-snapshot-time-to-throw/

It's not even close to a correct assertion. If you look at this snapshot of 2012 QBs time in pocket for QB's the average for all QBs is 2.73 seconds to throw the ball. Only 4 QBs in the whole list held the ball for 3 seconds or longer and they are all mobile/scrambling QBs.

Tom Brady with his spread passing offense got the ball out the fastest at 2.49 seconds.

So is every team running this so called AR passing game?

Most passing plays are designed to get out quickly unless they are playaction to get a receiver open deep.

PS: This snapshot is obviously before the QB change last year because AS is on the list and Kap is not......

Yep. It is an interesting theory and all, but I am rather tired of reading it.

and I respect NC very much, but I just see this differently... I suspect that this is "your baby (concept/creation)" and you are very proud of it, and thus, may be too stubborn to alter your perception? Either way, no hard feelings... just can't agree on this.. and we don't really have to.

I still believe that most of our pass plays have multiple options... multiple reads... built in... and that there are maybe 2-3 plays per game where we draw up a play that is designed for only 1 or 2 receiving targets. That's pretty standard for every team.

First, let's consider the implications. IF this offense were primarily AR1? Then this would indicate to me that our coaches don't think very much of our QB's ability to QB. That, I find rather implausible. I believe Kaep is not as quick to transition from progressions at this time.. but I don't think that level of transition is so minimal as to force our coaches to cripple the offense by conjuring up mostly 1 read pass plays. What I see on most plays are 3+ receiving options running routes and looking back at the QB as a potential target to be thrown to. I really can't see how this could be viewed as pure decoy... as if the QB is unable or disallowed to throw an open target a ball... all because said target is not the AR1. Just doesn't make much sense to me.... unless we really are saying the same thing, but using drastically different verbiage.

You guys are totally missing the point. Go watch ANY route...just one. Watch CK's head and body language from start to finish. Watch how quickly the AR comes off the LOS (knowing full well he's the target). Sometimes these plays take the full 3 seconds to develop (i.e. roll right, toss back left) but most are designed to get it out as quickly as possible (one read: nothing wrong with this "design"). Now, after the catch, rewind and watch what the non-AR's had done to get the AR open. Most are running decoy clear-out routes (ala Moss all last year)...deep ups pulling the DB's & S's while another pulls a DB away from that target area. CK is looking one way and one way only (as is the AR) unless it's a PS play.

If you disagree on the team passing concept, no worries. But then show me one single progression read and a pass to the obvious #2 or #3 read.

It's AR or ad lib. Nothing more (so far).

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

Edit: Just doesn't make much sense to me.... unless we really are saying the same thing, but using drastically different verbiage.

I've been trying to decipher this theory from different views and agree with you that it might be semantics. So, it's a question between play design and QB's ability to use the play in full...which is where I think the issue is. CK is a young QB in terms of this offense and Harbaugh has stated that it takes three years to learn/install it entirely...making CK nearly ready, but not quite, to be full bore.

There are plays where I wonder where the WRs went...they just seem to be blockers at times or just run their routes without looking back. If they are just not very good, then that's a serious problem. I've noticed that Boldin (for most of the season) was the only guy who seemed to be in motion at all times, extending his routes very effectively. Crabtree also does this but isn't 100% in my opinion. Patton is pretty dependable in this regard but has had so few chances to demonstrate his ability. So, other than those three, two of whom have been injured until late, it could all be on the receivers.

The biggest thing the 9ers have to worry about, regarding the passing game, is the opponents ability to read tendencies--CK's tendency to rely on Boldin this year, Crabtree last year, were obvious. Roman has a tendency to run into a stacked line...with Gore (who is sometimes effective) and Hunter (who is almost never effective).

My complaint, at the moment, is the constant changing of groups and individuals in and out of the offense that destroys rhythm. It sometimes seems that the team is dead set to use X number of options no matter how effective one group is. I'd like to see a series of hurry up offense with the same set--whether it's 2 WR and 1 TE or whatever...with the best players on the field for the whole set of plays. My guess about who the best are right now would be: Boldin, Crabtree, VD, Gore and Miller/Hunter (depending on how much running they want to do-Miller's blocking or Hunter as all purpose).

Originally posted by NCommand:
You guys are totally missing the point. Go watch ANY route...just one. Watch CK's head and body language from start to finish. Watch how quickly the AR comes off the LOS (knowing full well he's the target). Sometimes these plays take the full 3 seconds to develop (i.e. roll right, toss back left) but most are designed to get it out as quickly as possible (one read: nothing wrong with this "design"). Now, after the catch, rewind and watch what the non-AR's had done to get the AR open. Most are running decoy clear-out routes (ala Moss all last year)...deep ups pulling the DB's & S's while another pulls a DB away from that target area. CK is looking one way and one way only (as is the AR) unless it's a PS play.

If you disagree on the team passing concept, no worries. But then show me one single progression read and a pass to the obvious #2 or #3 read.

It's AR or ad lib. Nothing more (so far).

NC--when I watch CK this year, as opposed to last, he does tend to look at one guy more; but what of last year? Did they change the offense? I'm not able to tell whether it's play design, QB stubbornness or ineptness, or the receivers being so bad. I have seen some progressions where CK looked right and then threw left, but not enough. He is no Drew Brees, who never seems to be looking at any particular receiver.

In the Bill Walsh video I referenced earlier in this thread, Walsh explains how important it is for the QB to keep his head still, looking forward and using his side vision to judge where the receiver is. Montana demonstrates this and how a QB makes various drops and still maintains vision discipline. Of course, this is all predicated on timed routes where the QB can have some confidence in the receiver being where they are suppose to be at any moment. Far cry from what I'm seeing out there now.

But I'm really doubtful Roman is using three or four decoys as opposed to knowing CK is not mature enough to view/track five options. As Steve Young said yesterday regarding Shanahan--that's what separates P Manning and Brady from the rest.

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
NC--when I watch CK this year, as opposed to last, he does tend to look at one guy more; but what of last year? Did they change the offense? I'm not able to tell whether it's play design, QB stubbornness or ineptness, or the receivers being so bad. I have seen some progressions where CK looked right and then threw left, but not enough. He is no Drew Brees, who never seems to be looking at any particular receiver.

In the Bill Walsh video I referenced earlier in this thread, Walsh explains how important it is for the QB to keep his head still, looking forward and using his side vision to judge where the receiver is. Montana demonstrates this and how a QB makes various drops and still maintains vision discipline. Of course, this is all predicated on timed routes where the QB can have some confidence in the receiver being where they are suppose to be at any moment. Far cry from what I'm seeing out there now.

But I'm really doubtful Roman is using three or four decoys as opposed to knowing CK is not mature enough to view/track five options. As Steve Young said yesterday regarding Shanahan--that's what separates P Manning and Brady from the rest.

Thanks for the reply (and questions)! Nope, it was the exact same thing last year as well. Ppl keep referencing the Bears game. Go look at the TD to Crabtree as ppl are trying to use it as evidence of a progression read (finding his 2nd and 3rd options). You'll find that even on that play, quite simply, the AR was covered, CK pulls it down, scrambles to his left and Crabtree sees this and burns the DB and heads to the corner of the EZ (text book ad lib). TD. But it was absolutely identical to the TD's to both VD and Boldin last game (Rams) and the big completion to Boldin over Sherman. These are team passing AR play calls which instantly become ad lib plays if covered (or CK himself doesn't pull the trigger).

Again (to all) go watch ANY pass play from start to finish. And you'll see this design (esp. make sure to watch how the non-AR's help get the AR open). It's not that CK is a "one read QB" or "remedial" (if his primary read is covered) as touted in the media but rather, he's an extention of the passing play designed to get the AR the ball. Nothing more IMHO. And this would make sense in year one of the installation from HaRoMan's basic offensive philosophy. Year 2 we should see more complexities thrown in (in theory). CK himself, clearly has some mechanical issues, needs 10,000 more snaps as previously stated, study time, etc.

I just don't know if this is our offense in general or if like some have alluded too, Roman is scaling back the passing game to make it as simple as possible DURING this big learning curve for CK.

Love your reference to Bill Walsh. Studying all of his coaching videos and concepts last year, it became very apparent to me how opposite of a passing offense we run here...so much in fact, I started referring to our offense as the Anti-WCO.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
...and I respect NC very much, but I just see this differently...

And likewise! And no worries if we see differently...although, I would recommend watching a full passing play from my perspective (the challenge to all) and I think you may see it?

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
...and I respect NC very much, but I just see this differently...

And likewise! And no worries if we see differently...although, I would recommend watching a full passing play from my perspective (the challenge to all) and I think you may see it?

Okay... first pass play from Kaep vs Hawks. 12:00 1st quarter mark.

off os PA to Gore, Kaep's first read is to Crabtree running a hitch along the sideline area, top of your screen. Single coverage DB is playing him tight but loses his footing... pass incomplete to MC.

You see Hunter run his route over the short middle? see Miller underneath too?

There are NO other routes visibly aiding the 7 to 15 connection. The RB and FB are running a route to make themselves available to Kaep. Had the CB played MC perfectly, I'd like to think Kaep would then look to the right and hit the wide open FB or RB.

So, is this pass play an AR1? To you, are the backs not available targets that Kaep could throw to?

Nvm

On the very next play, you can clearly see Boldin get open as a pass option over the middle running a slant. VD runs a deep IN... Hunter runs a crosser across middle... Kaep throws a back shoulder to Rio along the sideline. None of these other routes were intent on clearing out for the back shoulder throw.. as they were nowhere near the back-shoulder throw sideline.

is this an example of AR1 for you? or are there multiple route elsewhere available for passing to?

Now on the next drive...9:48.. weak PA pass... it is a fitting description of your AR1... VD on a deep clear out and potential downfield block... Boldin with a soft crack-back block to seal... the throw intent on going to Miller,

8:40

Crabtree running over the middle.. backs come out as short dump-off options... VD looks to be running a deep fly (could be a clear out to later block for) ... and Boldin runs a deep out to the sideline.

For you, is Boldin the only option? the AR1? or are the backs and Crabtree not options, if Kaep sees a different coverage vs Boldin? Those routes described (except for VD, MAYBE) were not involved in the Boldin pattern.

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
...and I respect NC very much, but I just see this differently...

And likewise! And no worries if we see differently...although, I would recommend watching a full passing play from my perspective (the challenge to all) and I think you may see it?

Okay... first pass play from Kaep vs Hawks. 12:00 1st quarter mark.

off os PA to Gore, Kaep's first read is to Crabtree running a hitch along the sideline area, top of your screen. Single coverage DB is playing him tight but loses his footing... pass incomplete to MC.

You see Hunter run his route over the short middle? see Miller underneath too?

There are NO other routes visibly aiding the 7 to 15 connection. The RB and FB are running a route to make themselves available to Kaep. Had the CB played MC perfectly, I'd like to think Kaep would then look to the right and hit the wide open FB or RB.

So, is this pass play an AR1? To you, are the backs not available targets that Kaep could throw to?

Mc, I only have the NFL Replay version (it wasn't on locally, sadly enough).

Here are all the passing plays they aired per game clock (you choose):
1Q:
@ 9:48 mark
@ 8:44
@ 7:22
@ 6:35
@ 1:15
@ 1:07

2Q:
@12:11