The 49ers ... actually better than GB?

johnnyredneat · 2011-12-07T13:28:06-08:00

Some of you guys might be familiar with the so-called Pythagorean projection in sports. In a nutshell, it says if you plug a team's points scored and points conceded into a simple equation, you can predict a team's future won-loss record better than just about any other way, including the team's current record) (Example: a team goes 8-8 but significantly outscores its opponents. Next year, you'd do better predicting their record based upon the point differential, instead of the 8-8 record, or their offensive/defensive rankings, strength of schedule, etc.) Another way of thinking of it is that the Pythagorean projection identifies how lucky/unlucky teams were to get to their record. So, plugging the numbers for this year in...it turns out that the 49ers have the best "expected" record in the league: 9.6 wins. Green Bay only has 9.0 wins, suggesting that the Packers have been significantly lucky to get to 12-0. Green Bay isn't even in 2nd place - Houston has 9.2 expected wins, although with their QB situation that's probably not going to last for long. This stat isn't the gospel or anything. Green Bay may well be getting under-appreciated a bit. But also reflects how a more-rounded team like SF might actually be playing better overall than a team that does one thing extraordinarily well but really struggles elsewhere (e.g., the Packers having 47 rushing yards on 24 carries against a bad, banged up NYG rush D - truly pathetic numbers when you have a Rodgers passing attack) If anything, it bodes very well for our future staying power as a NFC powerhouse.

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Dec 18, 2011 at 4:14 PM

#106

NineFourNiner
Hall of Fame
Posts: 77,943

If you read Niner talk, you know that no one will ever beat the packers. Ever. Period.

Dec 18, 2011 at 4:44 PM

#107

vaden
Veteran
Posts: 4,026

No, but the Saints and Ravens are. I don't think the Saints would win in GB, though.

Dec 18, 2011 at 4:47 PM

#108

KowboyKiller
Veteran
Posts: 6,991

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
If you read Niner talk, you know that no one will ever beat the packers. Ever. Period.

Well Rodgers and the Packers must suck, because I learned on the webzone that good teams never lose.

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