The 49ers ... actually better than GB?

The 49ers actually better than GB? i say... No! GB is very Strongest more than 49ers right now.. I know GB was weak is?? i can tell you if u want to know? We need hit hard them on QB and WRS.. if they played scare for us that our defense beast then possible get to wins for us. I am so sick that WRS are #80 Donald Driver, 85 Greg Jennings and 87 Jordy Nelson that they are very dangerous for offense scores than 49ers WRS!!! I seen the GB WRS are not afraid about get hits! i already know about it.. So We need hit hard on them GB WRS that we must hurt them WRS from GB.. If Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and jordy nelson can without then #12 QB will not successful!.. They are important the WRS s**tz.. i am sccare about them wrs s**tz..

Originally posted by johnnyredneat:

Strength of schedule is a skewed stat to begin with, as well.


Nope, there aren't any adjustments in the normal Pythagorean calculation. It's basically impossible to separate out garbage time from normal time anyways. The niners 2nd half stats against the Eagles were arguably garbage time stats up until they weren't anymore.

For those that believe in the calculation (this includes most Vegas line-setters and professional gamblers, fwiw) the nice thing is you don't need to do any crazy adjustments. The theory is pretty damn accurate if you just take the simple points for/against.

LOL, wut?

Originally posted by Axl49:
The Saints actually scare me more than the GB does plus Saints are literally a scoring machine at home. We MUST GET A FIRST ROUND BYE

I agree. I would actually rather see the Niners go to Green Bay than see them have to go to the Superdome. The Saints are a ridiculous offensive machine in their dome. Outside, they're a completely different team. I think the Niners can beat the Saints at the Stick. And, the Packers can be beat by a team with a strong running attack and a great defense, especially in bad weather.

If the Niners can win three out of the last four games, the Saints have to come to the Stick and the Niners can go to Green Bay by beating the Saints.

hope I'm wrong but I do expect us to get to the NFC championship game but lose to the fudgepackers

January in Green Bay - it's cold. It may be snowing. That power running game the Niners have been working on all year could dominate the clock and keep the ball out of Rogers' hands. That defense could completely shut down any chance the Packers have of running and force them to throw in the snow. I can imagine the Niners winning that game. Yes, the Packers are the best team in the NFL right now, but under those circumstances, they can be beaten.

Originally posted by GNielsen:

January in Green Bay - it's cold. It may be snowing. That power running game the Niners have been working on all year could dominate the clock and keep the ball out of Rogers' hands. That defense could completely shut down any chance the Packers have of running and force them to throw in the snow. I can imagine the Niners winning that game. Yes, the Packers are the best team in the NFL right now, but under those circumstances, they can be beaten.

Umm..they qre used to the snow and our team is not. So they will still make some plays in the air and then focus on stopping our run. Still we have a chance.

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by GNielsen:
January in Green Bay - it's cold. It may be snowing. That power running game the Niners have been working on all year could dominate the clock and keep the ball out of Rogers' hands. That defense could completely shut down any chance the Packers have of running and force them to throw in the snow. I can imagine the Niners winning that game. Yes, the Packers are the best team in the NFL right now, but under those circumstances, they can be beaten.

Umm..they qre used to the snow and our team is not. So they will still make some plays in the air and then focus on stopping our run. Still we have a chance.

very exactly!!

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by GNielsen:
January in Green Bay - it's cold. It may be snowing. That power running game the Niners have been working on all year could dominate the clock and keep the ball out of Rogers' hands. That defense could completely shut down any chance the Packers have of running and force them to throw in the snow. I can imagine the Niners winning that game. Yes, the Packers are the best team in the NFL right now, but under those circumstances, they can be beaten.

Umm..they qre used to the snow and our team is not. So they will still make some plays in the air and then focus on stopping our run. Still we have a chance.

this is my thinking too....what are the talking heads thinking when they don't think this? Stupid romanoski was saying this couple of weeks ago....just doesn't make sense.

I don't think any team really gets used to the very cold, even the teams that come from that part of the country. I still remember January in Chicago, 1988. But really, any team can screw up in the snow. The Packers receivers are not used to catching balls in 25 degree weather. They play most of their games every year in weather that's a lot warmer than that. Everyone knows that the running game becomes more important in bad weather. That's just a fact of life. I still say the Packers can be beaten by the Niners in January bad weather. Do I expect the Niners to beat the Packers this year? Of course not. I'm just saying it's a legitimate possibility.

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by johnnyredneat:

Strength of schedule is a skewed stat to begin with, as well.


Nope, there aren't any adjustments in the normal Pythagorean calculation. It's basically impossible to separate out garbage time from normal time anyways. The niners 2nd half stats against the Eagles were arguably garbage time stats up until they weren't anymore.

For those that believe in the calculation (this includes most Vegas line-setters and professional gamblers, fwiw) the nice thing is you don't need to do any crazy adjustments. The theory is pretty damn accurate if you just take the simple points for/against.

LOL, wut?

Just making the point that it's not easy to statistically determine what are garbage time stats and what are legitimate comeback stats. Obviously the 9ers 2nd half stats vs Philly epnded up being critical, not garbage time, but how could you tell at first?

Dan Orlovsky led the Colts to three late touchdowns against NE when down 31-3. Seems like a crystal clear case of garbage time stat cramming, but was it? Indy had a chance for an onsides kick with a minute left. Maybe if they'd got that kick (which does not depend on Orlovsky) we're not talking about garbage stats but about Dan Orlovsky leading one of the great comebacks of all time.

Originally posted by johnnyredneat:
Just making the point that it's not easy to statistically determine what are garbage time stats and what are legitimate comeback stats. Obviously the 9ers 2nd half stats vs Philly epnded up being critical, not garbage time, but how could you tell at first?

Dan Orlovsky led the Colts to three late touchdowns against NE when down 31-3. Seems like a crystal clear case of garbage time stat cramming, but was it? Indy had a chance for an onsides kick with a minute left. Maybe if they'd got that kick (which does not depend on Orlovsky) we're not talking about garbage stats but about Dan Orlovsky leading one of the great comebacks of all time.

Garbage time does not mean the losing team isn't trying to come back, it means the winning team is so confident that they'll win that they have their 3rd stringers in there. I agree, it CAN be hard to tell when it is garbage time..though it usually is pretty obvious. Still it's something that will throw off any kind of math theory that does not account for it...including those created by smart dead greek dudes.

Originally posted by Joecool:
I'll take it!

In actuality, GB is ONLY better than us in passing the ball. That's it.

I agree except they are the current SB champ and would have an edge in playoff experience over us. I think talent and coaching trumps this but I think it is a factor.

Originally posted by Husker49er:

Originally posted by Joecool:
I'll take it!

In actuality, GB is ONLY better than us in passing the ball. That's it.

I agree except they are the current SB champ and would have an edge in playoff experience over us. I think talent and coaching trumps this but I think it is a factor.

I think our coach is smarter and works harder then theirs. JH won't hold back come playoff time.

No there offense makes scoring look so easy. They seem to be able to do what they want when they want.

Originally posted by Jakemall:

Originally posted by johnnyredneat:
Just making the point that it's not easy to statistically determine what are garbage time stats and what are legitimate comeback stats. Obviously the 9ers 2nd half stats vs Philly epnded up being critical, not garbage time, but how could you tell at first?

Dan Orlovsky led the Colts to three late touchdowns against NE when down 31-3. Seems like a crystal clear case of garbage time stat cramming, but was it? Indy had a chance for an onsides kick with a minute left. Maybe if they'd got that kick (which does not depend on Orlovsky) we're not talking about garbage stats but about Dan Orlovsky leading one of the great comebacks of all time.

Garbage time does not mean the losing team isn't trying to come back, it means the winning team is so confident that they'll win that they have their 3rd stringers in there. I agree, it CAN be hard to tell when it is garbage time..though it usually is pretty obvious. Still it's something that will throw off any kind of math theory that does not account for it...including those created by smart dead greek dudes.

You're right, garbage time is usually easy to identify if you're watching - although again, I'd ask you about the Orlovsky example I mentioned. Down 4 touchdowns in the 4th Q, backup QB in, etc. And yet he almost won. Garbage time or no? Reasonable people could disagree. The point is, translating one's opinion of garbage time into a statistical model is pretty much impossible, since crazy comebacks occur all the time.

Anyways, garbage time stats don't "throw off the theory". The theory is right to about 90%, with garbage time stats already being counted. It's not perfect or anything and I didn't invent it, but it works better than just about anything else out there.

To be fair to any doubters - the model doesn't say the 49ers would be favored to beat the Packers. In any single game, the details - matchups etc. - are the most determining factors obviously. What the model does say is that the 49ers 10-2 record is not a fluke at all, but the Packers 12-0 record is quite lucky.* That's all.

*And if you've watched lots of Packers football this year and are not a blind GB homer, you know how bad the defense and rushing attack have often been, and how lucky they've gotten with timely interceptions, and would admit this. A team can be both lucky and good, you know.