The 49ers ... actually better than GB? | Page 6

johnnyredneat · 2011-12-07T13:28:06-08:00

Some of you guys might be familiar with the so-called Pythagorean projection in sports. In a nutshell, it says if you plug a team's points scored and points conceded into a simple equation, you can predict a team's future won-loss record better than just about any other way, including the team's current record) (Example: a team goes 8-8 but significantly outscores its opponents. Next year, you'd do better predicting their record based upon the point differential, instead of the 8-8 record, or their offensive/defensive rankings, strength of schedule, etc.) Another way of thinking of it is that the Pythagorean projection identifies how lucky/unlucky teams were to get to their record. So, plugging the numbers for this year in...it turns out that the 49ers have the best "expected" record in the league: 9.6 wins. Green Bay only has 9.0 wins, suggesting that the Packers have been significantly lucky to get to 12-0. Green Bay isn't even in 2nd place - Houston has 9.2 expected wins, although with their QB situation that's probably not going to last for long. This stat isn't the gospel or anything. Green Bay may well be getting under-appreciated a bit. But also reflects how a more-rounded team like SF might actually be playing better overall than a team that does one thing extraordinarily well but really struggles elsewhere (e.g., the Packers having 47 rushing yards on 24 carries against a bad, banged up NYG rush D - truly pathetic numbers when you have a Rodgers passing attack) If anything, it bodes very well for our future staying power as a NFC powerhouse.

Dec 8, 2011 at 12:39 PM

#76

djfullshred
Veteran
Posts: 9,838

The great thing about sports is the better team isn't calculated by math equasions. It is determined by who wins in a head to head contest. Until GB & the Niners play each other, this question of who is the better overall team will not be determined.

Dec 8, 2011 at 12:56 PM

#77

NavyNinerFan
Veteran
Posts: 357

Originally posted by djfullshred:
The great thing about sports is the better team isn't calculated by math equasions. It is determined by who wins in a head to head contest. Until GB & the Niners play each other, this question of who is the better overall team will not be determined.

Well, Yes...you are exactly right. But if we just waited for the games, we wouldn't have anything to prognosticate about in the Zone!!

BTW. I think the Niners can beat the Packers...just sayin

Dec 8, 2011 at 1:05 PM

#78

9ersLiferInChicago
Veteran
Posts: 11,185

Originally posted by djfullshred:
The great thing about sports is the better team isn't calculated by math equasions. It is determined by who wins in a head to head contest. Until GB & the Niners play each other, this question of who is the better overall team will not be determined.

This isn't the BCS. But I think our 49ers would beat GB.

[ Edited by 9ersLiferInChicago on Dec 8, 2011 at 1:06 PM ]

Dec 8, 2011 at 3:41 PM

#79

JTsBiggestFan
Veteran
Posts: 7,758

The interesting thing in all of this is that all those great Steve Young and Jeff Garcia years with the vintage pass dominant offense, we only ONCE got it done against GB......barely, and admittedly #80 pulled a #33 that went our way on the final drive. The losing streak against GB is horrible......I think the last regular season win against them was probably against Majkowski, and we lost to them with Montana at the stick during the '89 season!

More than any other team in the league, they need an ass kicking in the worst f**** WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So anyways, it's interesting that a 49er offense that is not on a 49er top ten list is in a realistic position to beat GB either here or there. Amazing what a strong running game and a great defense can do.

I honestly think the GB aura is probably the biggest hurdle to overcome in beating them. We gotta get this done and reverse fortunes like we did with Dallas in '81. I want this game to be PERSONAL to the 49er players.....I wish '90s guys can come in and instill a sense of hatred. I believe these rivalries never truly die.

Dec 14, 2011 at 11:22 AM

#80

rapid4
Veteran
Posts: 1,685

Let's put it this way -- where would you put your money? (Yes, No Points)

Dec 14, 2011 at 11:30 AM

#81

English
Moderator
Posts: 41,374

http://www.footballdb.com/teamvsteam.html?tm=12&opp=27

WARNING:NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED

Dec 14, 2011 at 11:31 AM

#82

valrod33
Hall of Small
Posts: 138,096

Originally posted by English:
http://www.footballdb.com/teamvsteam.html?tm=12&opp=27

WARNING:NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED

you should give yourself a warning for that

Dec 14, 2011 at 11:32 AM

#83

susweel
Hall of Nepal
Posts: 122,009

10-3 is better then 13-0 ?

Dec 14, 2011 at 11:34 AM

#84

English
Moderator
Posts: 41,374

Originally posted by valrod33:
Originally posted by English:
http://www.footballdb.com/teamvsteam.html?tm=12&opp=27

WARNING:NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED

you should give yourself a warning for that

I have adjusted my warning level accordingly.

Dec 14, 2011 at 1:15 PM

#85

WildBill
Veteran
Posts: 6,196

Originally posted by Joecool:
I'll take it!

In actuality, GB is ONLY better than us in passing the ball. That's it.

They are better in a lot of ways. People don't think much of their D, but they are very good at making the big play. Plus you say only better than us in passing, well it is getting them more TD's than us.

Dec 14, 2011 at 3:22 PM

#86

BuZzB28
Member
Posts: 2,917

Originally posted by English:
http://www.footballdb.com/teamvsteam.html?tm=12&opp=27

WARNING:NOT FOR THE FAINT HEARTED

Green Bay always beat the 49ers for since many years!!

... F**k you Green Bay!! I hate you Green Bay!!

Dec 14, 2011 at 5:09 PM

#87

SnakePlissken
Veteran
Posts: 15,028

This year reminds me a lot of the 1998 season; the 49ers have all the talent in the world but play inconsistent with redzone threats dropping balls (and also might be choking the 2nd seed away like the 1998 team), and the Packers are a powerhouse of talent that everybody thinks is gonna go all the way.

Dec 14, 2011 at 5:24 PM

#88

ninersrule4
Veteran
Posts: 22,316

Packers >>>>>>> 49ers by 1000x

Dec 14, 2011 at 5:29 PM

#89

verb1der
Member
Posts: 15,613

Originally posted by ninersrule4:
Packers >>>>>>> 49ers by 1000x

Yeah after seeing what Jon Skelton did to us, I'm a little more convinced.

Dec 14, 2011 at 5:37 PM

#90

brizznasty
Veteran
Posts: 3,510

Originally posted by ninersrule4:
Packers >>>>>>> 49ers by 1000x

1000x? isn't that a little extreme bro...100x is more like it.