There are 223 users in the forums
Originally posted by tankle104:
I think it would have been good for him to get experience playing in CFL. Dude needs reps. Unless he's given up on trying to be a starter and just wants to be on a team and accepted being a career backup
Originally posted by Since07:
I can see it now Herbert goes down like Alex Smith and Harbaugh starts pounding Treys shoulders and he turns into Kaepernick while Purdy regresses into the Alex Smith everyone thinks he is…
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
I'm posting this because it seems that all sports writers are echoing the same talking points that Trey Lance is a bust struggling to be a back up QB. It wasn't the opinion that bothers me, but just the laziness and failure of writers to do their own research and come up with their own views. Sports media is saturated, it amazes me that most folks won't try to stand out with original and thoughtful content. Anyways, here's my opinion.
Trey Lance wasn't brought in to compete for the backup role, he was brought into replace Justin Herbert as the starter either during this or next offseason.
This is obvious based on Justin Herbert not being Jim Harbaugh's guy; he didn't draft Herbert or give him his big contract extension. And the major tip off is him bringing in Greg Roman, a pass game idiot but run game savant, as the offensive coordinator.
Last year the Chargers passed for 510 times vs. running for 463 times. Roman's philosophy is to do the opposite, preferring to run it 525 times to 425 passes, with the QB accounting for 125 carries on read options, power, and counters.
That's why they invested in high priced free agents RG Mekhi Becton and RB Najee Harris. Last year Becton's 6'7" 364 lb frame allowed the Eagles to lead the league in ball carrier 1st contact at 2.2 yards past the line of scrimmage.
And having Trey Lance at QB will allow the Chargers to duplicate the Eagles' SB winning formula (they still gotta up their pass rush though), and let Roman enjoy doing what he does best.
Herbert is a golden boy franchise QB with an elite arm and good mobility, but for all his gaudy stats, he's never won the Division and is 0-2 in the playoffs. In the 2022 season, he blew a 27-0 lead against the Jags, and most recently put up a 4 int 44% pass completion stinker against the Texans.
In fairness, his 4 int performance was due to a lingering high ankle sprain and plantar fasciitis, which prevented him from properly stepping into throws or scrambling for big gains, but he still has a pattern of choking in big games.
In 2021, he dropped a must win game to make the playoffs against a 3-10 Texans team. In that game he threw for 1 td and 2 ints.
Coincidentally, a week later, a rookie Trey Lance would also face the Texans in a must win game, we all know the outcome, a season saving W while throwing for 2 tds and 1 int.
So trading Herbert wouldn't be like Luka to the Lakers.
The Chargers' fanbase won't like it and sports media will be outraged, but no one can question Harbaugh's decision making regarding QBs given that he's developed Andrew Luck, revived Alex Smith, harnessed Kaepernick's explosive playmaking, and discovered JJ McCarthy.
When Trey Lance faced Harbaugh in the preseason, he put up an impressive stat line of 33 of 49 (67.3%) passes for 323 yards 1 td and 8 runs for 90 yards.
Unfortunately, the media focus was on his FIVE INTERCEPTION, but Harbaugh is apparently more concerned with 4 interceptions being thrown in the postseason than 5 in the preseason, as he should be.
And Trey's haters seem to ignore that he did play well overall last preseason, completing 73 of 113 passes (64.6%) for 662 yards 2 tds 5 ints, while also running 24 times for 168 yards (7.0 yards average) and 2 tds.
Here's a link to a great breakdown of the game where he faced Harbaugh.
He also looked good against the Commanders starting defense in week 18, going 20-34 (59%) 244 yards 0 tds 0 ints. He did miss an open receiver in the end zone on a 4th down that Purdy would have completed 10 out of 10 times, but it was a good outing overall.
But the most important part is that he had 147 passing reps in both preseason and regular season with a completion rate of 63%, a couple more completions and it would be 65%. It shows that the work he's put in with Jeff Christensen is paying off.
He's clearly ready, whatever rough edges that remain in his game will be smoothed out by Harbaugh's tutelage and more reps.
Now getting back to Herbert, besides being a poor scheme fit, there's also the issue of his salary. The QB has a cap hit of $37 .3 million (13.38% team cap) in 2025; $46.3 million (15.75% team cap) in 2026; $58.3 million (18.53%) in 2027; $71.1 million (21.11%) in 2028.
Herbert's 2025 cap figure is okay, but it becomes an issue after that. It doesn't make sense to pay that kind of money when you have a cheaper, younger, less banged up, and equally talented option to go with.
I think Herbert will win the SB one day, just not with Harbaugh and the Chargers.
If the Chargers traded Herbert post June 1st they'd reduce his cap hit to $22 million, save $15 million, and free up more cap space to retain or bring in free agents the next coming seasons.
And now is the best time to trade Herbert when he has maximum trade value, they could easily get 2 1st round picks and a good player for him.
In doing so, Harbaugh would essentially get a similar draft haul for acquiring Lance, to what the Niners gave up to draft him. Now that'd be some major one-upmanship right there!
And it's in Herbert's best interests to escape the constraints of Greg Roman's clunky and middling passing scheme.
Last year he threw for 29.6 passes per game, significantly lower than his pre-Harbaugh average of 38.8 per game.
That's 9 less passes per game or approximately 150 less attempts in a season. That's leads to missing out on 1,080 yards and 7 td passes based on his career averages of 7.2 yards per attempt and a 4.7% td ratio.
Missing 2-3 years of those numbers
could keep him out of Canton especially as his peers are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson.
I'm sure the Trey haters will remain unconvinced despite all the reasons that I've laid out, but I appreciate that they've read this far.
This may seem crazy, but it an issue about scheme and business.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
The bolded is sheer insanity, lol. Really the entire post*
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
Nothing insane about it, it's well reasoned.
Also, I forgot to add that Herbert has a no trade clause, so he'd have to agree.
Honestly, the writing was on the wall for Herbert when they brought in Roman. They might have traded him sooner if it weren't for an impossible cap hit of $130 million. After June 1st this offseason that figure is $22 million.
I think they were going to trade Herbert regardless and go with another QB who fits their philosophy and scheme. They picked Trey Lance, but I'm sure that Harbaugh would have been just as happy to go with Justin Fields or even Marcus Mariotta.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
It's not well reasoned on any level though. It's absurd evidence free prediction based on some really bad football analysis (both on the field and front office related dealings). I can't honestly see one sensical piece of the post.
Trey Lance might not even make the 53 man roster, let alone be a driving force in trading the single most valuable piece that attracted Harbaugh to the Chargers in the first place.
It's such a bad take it seems like parody.
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
That single most valuable piece threw 4 picks and completely only 44% of passes in a playoff game.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
And that leads you to believe they are aching to replace him with one of the least experienced and worst QBs in football. A guy they signed to a minimal risk flyer contract a month into free agency.
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
If my hypothesis is right, then they were going to replace him before that because of scheme fit and salary.
The crappy playoff performance would only validated that decision.
Herbert's an elite QB, but Harbaugh has seen them come and go, he chose Trey, and his opinion on the young QB is all that matters.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
Lol.
Explain why you think the Chargers signed Trey a month into free agency, for less guaranteed money than the backup QB they re-signed two and a half weeks earlier.
You'd think if your hypothesis was anywhere near correct they would have targeted him sooner, and certainly not after paying another QB more money. The guy sat on the market for a month. There's a pretty simple conclusion to draw there.
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
That's baseless conjecture, just because they announced the signing at that time doesn't mean they weren't engaged in talks or came to an agreement sooner.
if he starts he gets $6.2 million and then a new starter level contract after that. I
And if you're Harbaugh you offer Trey a low ball contract, see if he's hungry and humble. He got paid big for potential, now he has to earn it.
Harbaugh is about competition, Herbert is his single most valuable piece, but he'll can be traded for valuable 1st round picks and cap space for free agents.
No Harbaugh wouldn't do that, he's there to win Herbert a SB, not win a SB with his proven system that Trey Lance fits.
Originally posted by SmokeyJoe:
There is zero conjecture in stating the Chargers signed Trey Lance to less guaranteed money than Taylor Heinicke after he sat on the market for a month. Those are indisputable facts. You raise the possibility that they negotiated for a period of time, or came to an agreement prior to announcing, with nothing substantive to support it.
He will be in competition for the number two job and potentially a roster spot with Heinicke.
I love your sarcasm in the bottom point, lol. Just abysmal football analysis.
Originally posted by SinceXVI:
You're arguing just to argue. The only money to be concerned with is the cap space saved by moving a bigger salary.
And you have no emotional intelligence or psychological insight. Harbaugh does not have any loyalty to Herbert, he is just an expendable asset to building a contender.
Please have the last word, you're a boring dunce.
