Los Angeles Chargers QB Trey Lance Thread

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
I'm surprised NY. stating opinion as fact in much if not all of your rebutal here

It's a message board. These are all opinions unless links and citations are provided.

How mundane would the board be with a "this is my opinion" disclaimer for every single post? If you have a counter-fact,...feel free to provide.

For example,...I'm going to restate the obvious -- that the defense and the elite running game carried that 2019 team to the championship. Here is a link that supports it:



Going to say it again,...the run game was ELITE. You take away a great run game that Kyle seems pretty consistent with providing (thanks Kyle),...and the allure of Jimmy diminishes.

Give him credit for being able to do with a superb running game for play action and a defense that can keep scores low. Hey,...that's commendable.

Just don't pretend that he's been a difference maker while playing here or anything. He hasn't.

With all the QBs we had.. only Jimmy G lead us with a winning season.. thats a pretty big diference maker. Kyle likes a balanced system. If you can't be balanced then you can't run the ball or pass fluently

not once have i said Jimmy is elite, great, top 10 in the league.. what i've been saying. is out of the QB we have on this team. jimmy gives us the best chance this year

Originally posted by random49er:
It's a message board. These are all opinions unless links and citations are provided.

How mundane would the board be with a "this is my opinion" disclaimer for every single post? If you have a counter-fact,...feel free to provide.

For example,...I'm going to restate the obvious -- that the defense and the elite running game carried that 2019 team to the championship. Here is a link that supports it:



Going to say it again,...the run game was ELITE. You take away a great run game that Kyle seems pretty consistent with providing (thanks Kyle),...and the allure of Jimmy diminishes.

Give him credit for being able to do with a superb running game for play action and a defense that can keep scores low. Hey,...that's commendable.

Just don't pretend that he's been a difference maker while playing here or anything. He hasn't.

Okay, I got you. Now do other QBs from the same type of system like Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins. I swear some people in here don't understand football. Players don't operate in a bubble.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

I'm surprised NY. stating opinion as fact in much if not all of your rebutal here

It's a message board. These are all opinions unless links and citations are provided.

How mundane would the board be with a "this is my opinion" disclaimer for every single post? If you have a counter-fact,...feel free to provide.

For example,...I'm going to restate the obvious -- that the defense and the elite running game carried that 2019 team to the championship. Here is a link that supports it:



Going to say it again,...the run game was ELITE. You take away a great run game that Kyle seems pretty consistent with providing (thanks Kyle),...and the allure of Jimmy diminishes.

Give him credit for being able to do with a superb running game for play action and a defense that can keep scores low. Hey,...that's commendable.

Just don't pretend that he's been a difference maker while playing here or anything. He hasn't.

I think it is really easy to see the difference in how the team performed with JG compared to how they performed with a different qb.

The w-l records with and without JG clearly show what a difference he has made while starting.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by TheWooLick:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Originally posted by SteveWallacesHelmet:

What I said was the difference is 3rd down conversion rate is not even close to as big as the difference in talent between the two QBs. Since Jimmy is way better than Mullens, it would be logical to assume that the difference in conversion rates should be just as big.....and they arent. The conclusion I came to, which you and others are spinning, is that because such a big talent gap is not resulting in a similarly large difference in conversion rates, there must be some outside factor.....Kyle Shanahan.

Which circles back around to the main crux of this debate.....why some feel that Lance wouldnt be able to have success starting immediately. He would have good weapons around him, as well as a brilliant playcaller who would make things as easy on him as he does on Jimmy.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:

Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10 in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

I'd say a 15% difference is big.

And I'd say you are manipulating the stats to fit your agenda. Why not use 51 and 43?

51 >>>>> 43

It is a massive gap. Where did each of them rank?

??? 2019 was a better team,...better squad with minimal injuries.

43% and 43% (with the same team) ='s no gap. That's the most recent data we have on the two. Nothing special, hence, why Kyle chose a new QB.

Ask SteveWallace

Originally posted by random49er:
It's a message board. These are all opinions unless links and citations are provided.

How mundane would the board be with a "this is my opinion" disclaimer for every single post? If you have a counter-fact,...feel free to provide.

For example,...I'm going to restate the obvious -- that the defense and the elite running game carried that 2019 team to the championship. Here is a link that supports it:



Going to say it again,...the run game was ELITE. You take away a great run game that Kyle seems pretty consistent with providing (thanks Kyle),...and the allure of Jimmy diminishes.

Give him credit for being able to do with a superb running game for play action and a defense that can keep scores low. Hey,...that's commendable.

Just don't pretend that he's been a difference maker while playing here or anything. He hasn't.

You should check the analytics. Play-action success is not at all tied to how good your running game is.

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
You should check the analytics. Play-action success is not at all tied to how good your running game is.

Alot of time, analytics devoids people of common sense. Analytics don't make arguments,...they support them. That's the use of them. Your average Joe isin't going to get them all the time, but you take away a great running game in 2019 and Jimmy wasn't all that here passing the ball. That's an observation,...the last pic I posted are analytics that simply support that observation.

We're talking Jimmy and Jimmy's strengths and limitations that are observed with our own eyes in 2019. Lol,...so please don't respond with an analytic about ALL QBs with regards to play action passing on some silly, unrelated chart. Those stats are going to include players like Lamar Jackson that frankly doesn't need play action game to hold off the rush,...and players like Mahomes that forces you to always respect . No ifs, ands, or buts about it,...play action has helped Jimmy immensely during his time here and one analytic doesn't argue with another, to be frank. You just have to understand what you're looking at.

Here:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/1/18206319/rams-sean-mcvay-play-action-history-bill-walsh-mike-shanahan

Read this article on WCO,...and the Rams 2018 season,...with their offense utilizing play action 4% more than every other team in the league.

Then tell me what happened to Goff's game once Gurley got injured and wasn't himself anymore after that year.

For me anyone bringing up stats into this discussion is totally off base.

No matter how good or bad Jimmy's might be, Trey's might be better or worse. We just don't know.

The thing I keep coming back to is the run game. It's not just about Trey's ability to run, it's what that threat, combined with Kyle's playcalling ability does to a defense.

I've heard Kyle talk about 11v11 football long enough, to know that he isn't going back to 10v11. He just sees it as too much of an advantage.

Trey just has to demonstrate that he won't sh*t the bed and he'll be in.

Kyle wants to make him earn it, so they'll be no announcement (unless he gets a decent trade offer for Jimmy) but it'll happen.

As soon as Training Camp comes we'll all see this, the only debate will be when the transition occurs.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
I'm surprised NY. stating opinion as fact in much if not all of your rebutal here

It's a message board. These are all opinions unless links and citations are provided.

How mundane would the board be with a "this is my opinion" disclaimer for every single post? If you have a counter-fact,...feel free to provide.

For example,...I'm going to restate the obvious -- that the defense and the elite running game carried that 2019 team to the championship. Here is a link that supports it:



Going to say it again,...the run game was ELITE. You take away a great run game that Kyle seems pretty consistent with providing (thanks Kyle),...and the allure of Jimmy diminishes.

Give him credit for being able to do with a superb running game for play action and a defense that can keep scores low. Hey,...that's commendable.

Just don't pretend that he's been a difference maker while playing here or anything. He hasn't.

It's all relative. When the people you replace don't belong in the NFL, you can suddenly look pretty darn good. But we both know he's just someone who can execute an offense that's tailored to his strengths. Some players handicap the system, some players open up the system. Jimmy is the former, NOT the latter (as evidenced by the fact that this same offense was a down the field attacking one in Atlanta).

Originally posted by 5_Golden_Rings:
It's all relative. When the people you replace don't belong in the NFL, you can suddenly look pretty darn good. But we both know he's just someone who can execute an offense that's tailored to his strengths. Some players handicap the system, some players open up the system. Jimmy is the former, NOT the latter (as evidenced by the fact that this same offense was a down the field attacking one in Atlanta).

It's a lot easier to attack downfield when you have the best WR in the game.

Originally posted by random49er:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
You should check the analytics. Play-action success is not at all tied to how good your running game is.

Alot of time, analytics devoids people of common sense. Analytics don't make arguments,...they support them. That's the use of them. Your average Joe isin't going to get them all the time, but you take away a great running game in 2019 and Jimmy wasn't all that here passing the ball. That's an observation,...the last pic I posted are analytics that simply support that observation.

We're talking Jimmy and Jimmy's strengths and limitations that are observed with our own eyes in 2019. Lol,...so please don't respond with an analytic about ALL QBs with regards to play action passing on some silly, unrelated chart. Those stats are going to include players like Lamar Jackson that frankly doesn't need play action game to hold off the rush,...and players like Mahomes that forces you to always respect . No ifs, ands, or buts about it,...play action has helped Jimmy immensely during his time here and one analytic doesn't argue with another, to be frank. You just have to understand what you're looking at.

Here:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/2/1/18206319/rams-sean-mcvay-play-action-history-bill-walsh-mike-shanahan

Read this article on WCO,...and the Rams 2018 season,...with their offense utilizing play action 4% more than every other team in the league.

Then tell me what happened to Goff's game once Gurley got injured and wasn't himself anymore after that year.

Running the ball does help.. but also Kyle has said when running the ball as effective as you are, why pass. Running and playaction doesn't mean jimmy is handicapped.

The logic also doesn't hold on why we won when we couldn't run or play defenses in some games in 2019

again.. this is not jimmy is elite, this is Jimmy g gives us the best chance for our team this year

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Good recon soldier. That could put a lot of false narratives to rest.

I can't wait until Lance starts converting third downs with his legs that's going to make our offense consistently top five every year even with some significant injuries.

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Running the ball does help.. but also Kyle has said when running the ball as effective as you are, why pass. Running and playaction doesn't mean jimmy is handicapped.

The logic also doesn't hold on why we won when we couldn't run or play defenses in some games in 2019

again.. this is not jimmy is elite, this is Jimmy g gives us the best chance for our team this year

As of this moment, I completely agree with you. I think quite a few of the posters you've had debates with also agree (whether done openly or not is another story haha). But, there may come a time (in 2021) when JG is healthy and playing fine, but the coaching staff feels Lance either gives the team an equal or better chance to succeed. It's at that point Trey needs to go in--for a whole host of reasons.

Originally posted by elguapo:

Originally posted by a49erfan77:
Average yards to go on 3rd down:
Jimmy 2019: 7.6 (51% conversion)

Mullens 2020: 7.0 (43% conversion)
Jimmy 2020: 7.4 (43% conversion)

Another thing to consider is garbage time. When the team was losing by 10+ in the 4th Qtr, Mullens was converting at 73% in 2020. In any other game situation, he converted 36%.

Good recon soldier. That could put a lot of false narratives to rest.

I can't wait until Lance starts converting third downs with his legs that's going to make our offense consistently top five every year even with some significant injuries.

i would rather have him convert by his arm

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Running the ball does help.. but also Kyle has said when running the ball as effective as you are, why pass. Running and playaction doesn't mean jimmy is handicapped.

The logic also doesn't hold on why we won when we couldn't run or play defenses in some games in 2019

again.. this is not jimmy is elite, this is Jimmy g gives us the best chance for our team this year

You keep saying that but really nobody knows that when we have yet to see what Trey looks like. Being that this is Lances thread, here are some obvious reasons why I think Trey could give our team the best chance this year:

1. Stronger arm
2. Mobile
3. Gives Shanny 11v11 football opening the playbook to it's full capacity that Jimmy can't offer

Originally posted by Polkadots:

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:
Running the ball does help.. but also Kyle has said when running the ball as effective as you are, why pass. Running and playaction doesn't mean jimmy is handicapped.

The logic also doesn't hold on why we won when we couldn't run or play defenses in some games in 2019

again.. this is not jimmy is elite, this is Jimmy g gives us the best chance for our team this year

As of this moment, I completely agree with you. I think quite a few of the posters you've had debates with also agree (whether done openly or not is another story haha). But, there may come a time (in 2021) when JG is healthy and playing fine, but the coaching staff feels Lance either gives the team an equal or better chance to succeed. It's at that point Trey needs to go in--for a whole host of reasons.

that has been my argument the whole time. start Jimmy. if he stays healthy, great. if he gets hurt, boom.. in comes Lance and the team rallies behind him.

If we start Lance. then there is no way we can bring in jimmy, even if Lance s**ts the bed