Originally posted by Ezekiel38:
Originally posted by miked1978:
I was on board with the Howell pick at #27 as he is one of my favorites but listening to one of the locked on podcasts with Kyle Crabbs he went over every edge rusher with sub 31" arms since 1999 and ZERO of them had any type of impact in the NFL. There were only about 10 players on the list as well.
We need a sure-fire impact player at 27 regardless of position and the chances of him being one is very slim. Thats not to say he can't break the mold but let another team take that gamble. I think Howell is going to fall more then we realize. I dont even think he is a first rounder anymore.
However ... outside of Bain and Howell in 2026 the only other EDGEs with sub 31" arms since 1999 were Nate Williams and Sutton Smith. Smith was a 6th round pick in 2019 and Williams was a UDFA in 2013.
Thus these guys weren't considered great prospects to begin with based on their on field play/production and Smith even converted to fullback.
So don't think it's an apples to apples comparison as Bain and Howell are elite pass rushers with elite on field production who just happen to have sub 31" arms and it is rather unprecedented. So I think it could be an error to compare them to anyone else in the past with sub 31" arms.
Now if other 1srt and 2nd rd picks in the past were EDGEs and were great college players and did nothing in the NFL then sure your argument would apply far better. Plus sample size too low as only 4 total EDGEs with sub 31" arms since 1999 including Bain and Howell.
I'd prob still take the gamble on both of them.
Isnt that sort of confirming the point? There are no high draft pick edge players with short arms, because guys with that short of arms generally are not good college edge players. These guys get moved to linebacker because they cant set an edge, they cant keep a tackle off their frame, they cant shed blocks, they cant anchor in the run game.
Your saving grace must be elite get off, acceleration, speed, bend, flexibility, hands, and counters. You must have all of them and be elite at all of them. And if you fail, you fail miserably. A DPR that gets swallowed by faster and stronger NFL tackles is utterly useless. Of course if it hits, you can have a Haason Reddick or Vic Beasley. But I dont think you see them bust and then still have a 10 year career ala Solomon Thomas or Kinlaw.