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MadDog49er 2019 NFLDraft Niners Review

Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Agreed. Have to draft with value in mind.


So what's the point in "value" if the guy isn't a scheme fit and won't ever see the field?

Case in point, your RB taken in the 5th/6th maybe tremendous value because he was #1 or #2 overall RB but he's going to be at best 4th string and doesn't fit the mold Shanny likes at all.

Same with your safety pick. We have a glutton of guys who can play SS. It's the FS spot that is up for debate.

It would be better to take starting Punter over a 4th or 5th string RB or SS.

I think your critique of MD's draft has fair points.
I'd bring up a couple counterpoints.

1. Longevity is value too
The window to make an impact in the NFL is small. Missing games doesn't contribute to wins.

Moore was the only DB to appear in all 16 games last season. Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams, Exum, Reed almost played in all the games last season. If the above is the secondary that can be relied upon, then there is plenty of room for competition.

I think a similar argument could be made for RB. They had a nice lineup on paper, but ended up with two guys off the street and Breida carrying the load on bad legs.

2. There's projection involved in scheme fit too
I think the coaches have been allowed to be hands on in projection. It's not necessarily bad, but could become very subjective if not reigned in by the GM. It's not a knock on coaches - just that they aren't the ones watching tape on every available player either.

I think your analysis of AJ Brown is fair - I do wonder how easily he can separate. That said, I don't think it'd be that much different for Samuel. If Samuel is like Edelman,then Brown is like Hogan. Neither are pure electric. Both are guys that need to consistently run good routes in short and intermediate ranges.

Also, IMO if Butler isn't a scheme fit, then neither is Hurd (right now). Hurd is only a "scheme fit" now because Shanahan (probably) wants to scheme him in as a gadget guy. Hurd could be a fit at WR if he gets coached up on how to be a WR. IMO Butler could be a fit at WR if he learns to fight off press coverage better.
Spot on. C+ was my grade as well.

The two most important areas that make both our systems run, interior pass protection and single-high free safety were never addressed in either free agency or the draft.

That's remarkable actually.

But a lot of other key pieces were certainly added overall.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 29, 2019 at 11:39 AM ]
Originally posted by miked1978:
Good review. I would have loved to see the 49ers draft board when they took the punter. Its obvious the front office and coaches have better grades on the guys on the current roster than the guys in this draft.

Looking at what the fans/media rated players and comparing it to what happened in the draft is quite remarkable especially at WR. DK Metcalf was a surefire 1st round talent who almost fell to the 3rd round. Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon fell a lot further. No one predicted Mecole Hardman to be drafted before his teammate Ridley or even JJ Whiteside, Isabella, Harmon, H Butler, P Campbell, or T. McLaurin.

The WR unit was the most fascinating by far. It was all over the board and twisted.

And then, in a division who never drafts, big, tall WR's, the NFCW all at once went "big," and then some.

Whomever has the best secondary is probably going to win the division.
[ Edited by NCommand on Apr 29, 2019 at 10:50 AM ]
Thanks for everything that you do MD
  • All22
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Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by All22:
I always appreciate all the work you put into the draft every year. Your posts are one of the true gems that make this place what it is.

That said, I don't know what team you're drafting for...

2. AJ Brown, WR, Mississippi- I don't get all the love for this guy. Slightly bigger than Deebo with less quickness and route running. Could be good with the right team but he's going to get a shock when his dominance fails to transfer to the next level (similar to Jalen Strong or DeVante Parker).
3. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa St- Doesn't have the routes or hands that Kyle likes.
4. Amani Hooker, S, Iowa- Our team, and the league in general, is full of robber/box safeties. We need a single-high guy.
5. Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M- Drafting an RB in the 5th who doesn't fit the system and who would be at best 4th string behind Jet, Coleman, and Breida is worse than drafting a punter in the 4th.

6. Te'Von Coney, LB, Notre Dame- ALL LB's in a Cover 3 system have to be fast, cover distance, and be able to cover crossing routes, backs and TE's. He's just not that guy.

Thanks for the compliment. I think we see things a bit differently. I believe Brown has enough savviness to get open on the outside or in the slot. He was able to do both in college. Butler will need to work on his hands, but he also ran out of different sets inside and outside. Although we need a single high safety, I am not sure that Tartt is the answer for the team, and he has missed 16 games over the last two seasons. The team needs some depth there. Williams makes sense from a contract perspective. McKinnon's beefy contract could be wiped off the books (minus dead money), and Coleman's contract is for two years, and I believe he can be off the books at the end of the year. Coney does not test well, but graded out well in coverage according to PFF last year. For a later rounder, not back value for a guy who will be a core special teamer, and maybe more.

My point is that Williams doesn't do what McKinnon and Coleman do. I'd agree with you that he'd make sense if we were trying to replace Carlos Hyde or Kendall Hunter but what Coleman and Mckinnon do in the context of Shanny's offense is special.

WRT the DB situation, we took depth last year: Tarvarius Moore, DJ Reed, and Marcel Harris. Then again the year before with Witherspoon and Colbert.
If you want to grab a guy in round 1 or 2 who's almost guaranteed to be a starter (Budda Baker, Darnell Savage etc) then I get it but any mid-late round guy is going to have to fight though a ton of other young guys and probably won't ever see the field without a rash of injuries.
[ Edited by All22 on Apr 29, 2019 at 11:35 AM ]
Originally posted by All22:
My point is that Williams doesn't do what McKinnon and Coleman do. I'd agree with you that he'd make sense if we were trying to replace Carlos Hyde or Kendall Hunter but what those Coleman and Mckinnon do in the context of Shanny's offense is special.

WRT the DB situation, we took depth last year: Tarvarius Moore, DJ Reed, and Marcel Harris. Then again the year before with Witherspoon and Colbert.
If you want to grab a guy in round 1 or 2 who's almost guaranteed to be a starter (Budda Baker, Darnell Savage etc) then I get it but any mid-late round guy is going to have to fight though a ton of other young guys and probably won't ever see the field without a rash of injuries.

Agreed - especially the bold.
  • All22
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Originally posted by zonkers:
I think your critique of MD's draft has fair points.
I'd bring up a couple counterpoints.

1. Longevity is value too
The window to make an impact in the NFL is small. Missing games doesn't contribute to wins.

Moore was the only DB to appear in all 16 games last season. Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams, Exum, Reed almost played in all the games last season. If the above is the secondary that can be relied upon, then there is plenty of room for competition.

I think a similar argument could be made for RB. They had a nice lineup on paper, but ended up with two guys off the street and Breida carrying the load on bad legs.

2. There's projection involved in scheme fit too
I think the coaches have been allowed to be hands on in projection. It's not necessarily bad, but could become very subjective if not reigned in by the GM. It's not a knock on coaches - just that they aren't the ones watching tape on every available player either.

I think your analysis of AJ Brown is fair - I do wonder how easily he can separate. That said, I don't think it'd be that much different for Samuel. If Samuel is like Edelman,then Brown is like Hogan. Neither are pure electric. Both are guys that need to consistently run good routes in short and intermediate ranges.

Also, IMO if Butler isn't a scheme fit, then neither is Hurd (right now). Hurd is only a "scheme fit" now because Shanahan (probably) wants to scheme him in as a gadget guy. Hurd could be a fit at WR if he gets coached up on how to be a WR. IMO Butler could be a fit at WR if he learns to fight off press coverage better.

I can't say for sure but it seemed to me like the team purposely shut down Sherman, Spoon, and Williams.

There's nothing you can do about the RB situation... you don't draft a RB and keep him on the 53 because the 3 guys in front of him might get hurt.

Hurd is definitely a unique character. I think he's our short yardage back right away and plays a lot of OW situations. Butler is not that. I don't think they're really comparable at all other than size. Hurd is definitely the shiftier, quicker player who has more route running potential. And he's got far superior hands.
Originally posted by NCommand:
The WR unit was the most fascinating by far. It was all over the board and twisted.

And then, in a division who never drafts, big, tall WR's, the NFCW all at once went "big," and then some.

Whomever has the best secondary is probably going to win the division.

Seems like we are banking on our pass rush making other teams resort to backup qb.
Dude gave himself a wedggie.

Originally posted by tankle104:
Yo Maddog,

I've been reading your draft stuff for quite some time now (man I think it's closing in on 10 years??) and I just want to say that even though I find my self often disagreeing with some picks or philosophies, I appreciate the time you take every year to share this stuff with us. Makes the webzone a better place.

Thanks. It is a fun journey each year

Originally posted by All22:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Originally posted by All22:
I always appreciate all the work you put into the draft every year. Your posts are one of the true gems that make this place what it is.

That said, I don't know what team you're drafting for...

2. AJ Brown, WR, Mississippi- I don't get all the love for this guy. Slightly bigger than Deebo with less quickness and route running. Could be good with the right team but he's going to get a shock when his dominance fails to transfer to the next level (similar to Jalen Strong or DeVante Parker).
3. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa St- Doesn't have the routes or hands that Kyle likes.
4. Amani Hooker, S, Iowa- Our team, and the league in general, is full of robber/box safeties. We need a single-high guy.
5. Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M- Drafting an RB in the 5th who doesn't fit the system and who would be at best 4th string behind Jet, Coleman, and Breida is worse than drafting a punter in the 4th.

6. Te'Von Coney, LB, Notre Dame- ALL LB's in a Cover 3 system have to be fast, cover distance, and be able to cover crossing routes, backs and TE's. He's just not that guy.

Thanks for the compliment. I think we see things a bit differently. I believe Brown has enough savviness to get open on the outside or in the slot. He was able to do both in college. Butler will need to work on his hands, but he also ran out of different sets inside and outside. Although we need a single high safety, I am not sure that Tartt is the answer for the team, and he has missed 16 games over the last two seasons. The team needs some depth there. Williams makes sense from a contract perspective. McKinnon's beefy contract could be wiped off the books (minus dead money), and Coleman's contract is for two years, and I believe he can be off the books at the end of the year. Coney does not test well, but graded out well in coverage according to PFF last year. For a later rounder, not back value for a guy who will be a core special teamer, and maybe more.

My point is that Williams doesn't do what McKinnon and Coleman do. I'd agree with you that he'd make sense if we were trying to replace Carlos Hyde or Kendall Hunter but what Coleman and Mckinnon do in the context of Shanny's offense is special.

WRT the DB situation, we took depth last year: Tarvarius Moore, DJ Reed, and Marcel Harris. Then again the year before with Witherspoon and Colbert.
If you want to grab a guy in round 1 or 2 who's almost guaranteed to be a starter (Budda Baker, Darnell Savage etc) then I get it but any mid-late round guy is going to have to fight though a ton of other young guys and probably won't ever see the field without a rash of injuries.

I think Williams is the most well-rounded back in this draft. Can run, catch, block. Will play immediately because he can pick up blitzes
  • TX9R
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Appreciate the evals, projections, and final analysis as always. Its one of the few things I still come to the forums for. Gives me insight and knowledge heading in to each draft every year and makes watching fun. I have no where near the amount of time it would take to gain your insight, so thank you.I have no grade and no idea how any of this will pan out. I stopped thinking I knew anything when I bought JJ Stokes rookie card, completely sure he was the next Jerry Rice.
That being said, the one thing I do disagree with you on philisophically, is taking players purely based on value as opposed to scheme fit. I absolutely think you draft to your scheme (ya know, when you actually have continuitity, which, we haven't) Walsh mastered this which is why we were taking 280 lb lineman when the league was 300 plus. Pittsburgh has been drafting to their defense for about as long as I've been alive (helps when your DC is there for like 50 years) and they are generally above average.
Not a critique at all, I just think this group of FO/ Coach will be here a awhile and have no issue with them drafting to that scheme. That being said, I still disagree with taking a punter, really, at all. The best guy is what, 1-2 yards better than an average guy? Also still not sold on the interior of this Oline. Those guys you CAN find in later rounds, often. I was fine with not taking a safety in this class personally just to take one.
Great job as usual MD.

My zone time is limited now, but I always pop in to see your expert analysis come draft time.

Have you even reevaluated your draft scores after 3+ years? I'm curious on the accuracy. 1 or even 2 years is probably a bit too soon.
Originally posted by All22:
I always appreciate all the work you put into the draft every year. Your posts are one of the true gems that make this place what it is.

That said, I don't know what team you're drafting for...

2. AJ Brown, WR, Mississippi- I don't get all the love for this guy. Slightly bigger than Deebo with less quickness and route running. Could be good with the right team but he's going to get a shock when his dominance fails to transfer to the next level (similar to Jalen Strong or DeVante Parker).
3. Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa St- Doesn't have the routes or hands that Kyle likes.
4. Amani Hooker, S, Iowa- Our team, and the league in general, is full of robber/box safeties. We need a single-high guy.
5. Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M- Drafting an RB in the 5th who doesn't fit the system and who would be at best 4th string behind Jet, Coleman, and Breida is worse than drafting a punter in the 4th.

6. Te'Von Coney, LB, Notre Dame- ALL LB's in a Cover 3 system have to be fast, cover distance, and be able to cover crossing routes, backs and TE's. He's just not that guy.

Agree
Your hard work is excellent!

I hope you are wrong on many of your assessments And please keep them coming.
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