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Official NFL Draft Order Thread
Dec 24, 2017 at 6:06 PM
- okdkid
- Veteran
- Posts: 23,726
Likely will draft #10 if we win next week.
Dec 24, 2017 at 6:17 PM
- ChaunceyGardner
- Q46 Draft Winner
- Posts: 23,919
Originally posted by 9ers4eva:Originally posted by ChaunceyGardner:Will be #8 after today
7. Bengals and Bears both won. Unless the Jets SOS jumps below us it should be 7.
Yup!
Dec 25, 2017 at 12:58 AM
- mayo49
- Veteran
- Posts: 65,216
Some reports have us at #6 and some have us at #7. Everybody has a different SOS - so you can't tell which one is the right one.
Dec 25, 2017 at 5:26 AM
- okdkid
- Veteran
- Posts: 23,726
Originally posted by mayo49:Some reports have us at #6 and some have us at #7. Everybody has a different SOS - so you can't tell which one is the right one.
Yes you can. Tankathon is correct. They use the SOS of ALL the teams on the 17 week schedule. Others, for some dumb reason, only use the SOS for the teams that were played thus far.
Dec 25, 2017 at 9:21 AM
- 9ers4eva
- Veteran
- Posts: 22,853
Loss gives 9ers 7 with a shot at 6 in Broncos win. Win might push it to 12 depending on how games go.
Dec 25, 2017 at 10:30 AM
- 49oz2superbowl
- Veteran
- Posts: 3,615
I ran the numbers this morning (way too much time on my hands this Xmas morning) so wanted to give the below info for all you draft nuts.
The ABSOLUTE highest we can pick is 4 - if we lose plus Bucs and Broncos win and Houston wins next 2 games. CLE, NYG, and IND are locks for the top 3.
If we lose it will be between 4-7 - any win by Bucs or Broncos will incrementally bump us up one and 2 wins from Texans would also bump one
Pit @ Houston, Houston @ Colts (DOUBTFUL since must win both)
Saints @ Bucs (DOUBTFUL)
Chiefs @ Broncos (DOUBTFUL)
The ABSOLUTE worst we can pick is actually 11th (not 12th as standings would lead you to believe). Reason is that our strength of schedule is far enough below the Dolphins that we would win the tie breaker no matter what outcome of games happen next week. Being a division rivalry week this type of week is statistically a total wash, more or less, to SOS so would be impossible for us at .521 to get higher than the Dolphins at .544. No matter what they pick after us.
If we win then it will be between 7-11 - most likely will be 10 as guessing Raiders will win 1 of their remaining 2 and the below teams will all lose on the road to far superior teams even if those teams rest some starters. If any of the bold win that moves us up an incremental spot from 11 in the event that we win with exception of Jets where we are so close in SOS that their win could still not move us up if our SOS improves slightly and/or theirs drops slightly.
Jets @ Pats (Doubtful)
Bears @ Vikings (Doubtful)
Bengals @ Ravens (Doubtful)
Raiders @ Eagles, Raiders @ Chargers (Probable)
In summary it looks like a loss will most likely get us the 7th pick and a win will get most likely get us the 10th (though anywhere between 4-11 CAN happen). No matter if you want us to win or lose you should spend today and next weekend rooting for the teams in bold to win
Merry Christmas everyone!!!
The ABSOLUTE highest we can pick is 4 - if we lose plus Bucs and Broncos win and Houston wins next 2 games. CLE, NYG, and IND are locks for the top 3.
If we lose it will be between 4-7 - any win by Bucs or Broncos will incrementally bump us up one and 2 wins from Texans would also bump one
Pit @ Houston, Houston @ Colts (DOUBTFUL since must win both)
Saints @ Bucs (DOUBTFUL)
Chiefs @ Broncos (DOUBTFUL)
The ABSOLUTE worst we can pick is actually 11th (not 12th as standings would lead you to believe). Reason is that our strength of schedule is far enough below the Dolphins that we would win the tie breaker no matter what outcome of games happen next week. Being a division rivalry week this type of week is statistically a total wash, more or less, to SOS so would be impossible for us at .521 to get higher than the Dolphins at .544. No matter what they pick after us.
If we win then it will be between 7-11 - most likely will be 10 as guessing Raiders will win 1 of their remaining 2 and the below teams will all lose on the road to far superior teams even if those teams rest some starters. If any of the bold win that moves us up an incremental spot from 11 in the event that we win with exception of Jets where we are so close in SOS that their win could still not move us up if our SOS improves slightly and/or theirs drops slightly.
Jets @ Pats (Doubtful)
Bears @ Vikings (Doubtful)
Bengals @ Ravens (Doubtful)
Raiders @ Eagles, Raiders @ Chargers (Probable)
In summary it looks like a loss will most likely get us the 7th pick and a win will get most likely get us the 10th (though anywhere between 4-11 CAN happen). No matter if you want us to win or lose you should spend today and next weekend rooting for the teams in bold to win
Merry Christmas everyone!!!
[ Edited by 49oz2superbowl on Dec 25, 2017 at 10:34 AM ]
Dec 25, 2017 at 12:51 PM
- JBrack
- Member
- Posts: 2,827
Originally posted by 49oz2superbowl:I ran the numbers this morning (way too much time on my hands this Xmas morning) so wanted to give the below info for all you draft nuts.
The ABSOLUTE highest we can pick is 4 - if we lose plus Bucs and Broncos win and Houston wins next 2 games. CLE, NYG, and IND are locks for the top 3.
If we lose it will be between 4-7 - any win by Bucs or Broncos will incrementally bump us up one and 2 wins from Texans would also bump one
Pit @ Houston, Houston @ Colts (DOUBTFUL since must win both)
Saints @ Bucs (DOUBTFUL)
Chiefs @ Broncos (DOUBTFUL)
The ABSOLUTE worst we can pick is actually 11th (not 12th as standings would lead you to believe). Reason is that our strength of schedule is far enough below the Dolphins that we would win the tie breaker no matter what outcome of games happen next week. Being a division rivalry week this type of week is statistically a total wash, more or less, to SOS so would be impossible for us at .521 to get higher than the Dolphins at .544. No matter what they pick after us.
If we win then it will be between 7-11 - most likely will be 10 as guessing Raiders will win 1 of their remaining 2 and the below teams will all lose on the road to far superior teams even if those teams rest some starters. If any of the bold win that moves us up an incremental spot from 11 in the event that we win with exception of Jets where we are so close in SOS that their win could still not move us up if our SOS improves slightly and/or theirs drops slightly.
Jets @ Pats (Doubtful)
Bears @ Vikings (Doubtful)
Bengals @ Ravens (Doubtful)
Raiders @ Eagles, Raiders @ Chargers (Probable)
In summary it looks like a loss will most likely get us the 7th pick and a win will get most likely get us the 10th (though anywhere between 4-11 CAN happen). No matter if you want us to win or lose you should spend today and next weekend rooting for the teams in bold to win
Merry Christmas everyone!!!
Thanks for taking the time. Good chit and Merry Xmas.
Dec 26, 2017 at 4:20 PM
- Joecool
- Veteran
- Posts: 70,984
Let's hope CLE drafts 2 QB's with their first two picks.
Dec 27, 2017 at 1:04 PM
- saniner
- Veteran
- Posts: 7,724
Originally posted by okdkid:Likely will draft #10 if we win next week.
We just have to hope Rosen and Darnold come out (Lamar Jackson too). 8-12 have been good trading spots the last 2 years. If one or two QBs fall we could be perfect trading partners. Last year the Chiefs moved up for Mahomes and the Texans moved up for Watson.
If they aren't in love with anyone at their spot, I would hope a QB falls so we could trade back.
Dec 27, 2017 at 4:08 PM
- 49erWill
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 86,399
Originally posted by Joecool:Let's hope CLE drafts 2 QB's with their first two picks.
Either way there should be atleast 2 QBs selected before we pick, maybe 3-4. I think 2 OT as well.
That will drop some positions we really need our way
Dec 31, 2017 at 9:02 AM
- eastcoast49ersfan
- Veteran
- Posts: 4,112
I would love to see us end up with the 5th pick following a close loss to the Rams so we have a shot at Barkley (if 3 QBs and Chubb go top 5) or can trade back and still get Nelson.
We need to lose and we need Tampa Bay and Denver to win and the Jets to win or finish with a stronger SOS than us (currently we're tied) to finish 5th. With a loss, we'll draft anywhere from 5th to 8th.
If we win, we want the Jets, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Oakland to win and we need the Jets to finish with a stronger SOS than us and we'd still pick 7th. With a win, we'll draft anywhere from 7th to 11th.
We should be rooting for our previous opponents to win and the Jets opponents to lose in case we need that tiebreaker.
1PM EST games:
Bears at Vikings - Bears win raises our SOS. If we win, we want the Bears to win, but if we lose, we want the Bears to lose so we stay ahead of them in the draft. A Bears win means we have less to lose from beating the Rams.
Browns at Steelers - Browns win raises Jets SOS. We want the Browns to win.
Cowboys at Eagles - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
Jets at Patriots - we want the Jets to win. If we lose and they win, we pick ahead of them. If we win, we need them to win and we need to have a weaker SOS.
Packers at Lions - neither team played the 49ers or Jets. We don't care who wins.
Redskins at Giants - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
Texans at Colts - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
4:25PM EST games:
49ers at Rams - only considering draft position, we'd want to lose this game.
Panthers at Falcons - both of us played the Panthers, the Jets also played the Falcons. We want the Falcons to win which weakens our SOS.
Bengals at Ravens - if we win, we want the Bengals to win. If we lose, it doesn't matter (neither team played the 49ers or Jets).
Bills at Dolphins - Jets played both teams twice (their division). Doesn't really matter, but should root for the Dolphins in case we win and our SOS passes theirs (unlikely).
Cardinals at Seahawks - Jets didn't play either team, so feel free to root for the Cardinals knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs.
Raiders at Chargers - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Raiders in case we win.
Chiefs at Broncos - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Broncos so we'll jump them if we lose.
Saints at Buccaneers - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Buccaneers so we'll jump them if we lose.
Jaguars at Titans - Both of us played the Jaguars, 49ers also played the Titans. We should root for the Jaguars to win which increases the Jets SOS
We need to lose and we need Tampa Bay and Denver to win and the Jets to win or finish with a stronger SOS than us (currently we're tied) to finish 5th. With a loss, we'll draft anywhere from 5th to 8th.
If we win, we want the Jets, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Oakland to win and we need the Jets to finish with a stronger SOS than us and we'd still pick 7th. With a win, we'll draft anywhere from 7th to 11th.
We should be rooting for our previous opponents to win and the Jets opponents to lose in case we need that tiebreaker.
1PM EST games:
Bears at Vikings - Bears win raises our SOS. If we win, we want the Bears to win, but if we lose, we want the Bears to lose so we stay ahead of them in the draft. A Bears win means we have less to lose from beating the Rams.
Browns at Steelers - Browns win raises Jets SOS. We want the Browns to win.
Cowboys at Eagles - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
Jets at Patriots - we want the Jets to win. If we lose and they win, we pick ahead of them. If we win, we need them to win and we need to have a weaker SOS.
Packers at Lions - neither team played the 49ers or Jets. We don't care who wins.
Redskins at Giants - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
Texans at Colts - SF played both teams, so it doesn't matter who wins.
4:25PM EST games:
49ers at Rams - only considering draft position, we'd want to lose this game.
Panthers at Falcons - both of us played the Panthers, the Jets also played the Falcons. We want the Falcons to win which weakens our SOS.
Bengals at Ravens - if we win, we want the Bengals to win. If we lose, it doesn't matter (neither team played the 49ers or Jets).
Bills at Dolphins - Jets played both teams twice (their division). Doesn't really matter, but should root for the Dolphins in case we win and our SOS passes theirs (unlikely).
Cardinals at Seahawks - Jets didn't play either team, so feel free to root for the Cardinals knocking the Seahawks out of the playoffs.
Raiders at Chargers - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Raiders in case we win.
Chiefs at Broncos - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Broncos so we'll jump them if we lose.
Saints at Buccaneers - Jets played both teams. We should root for the Buccaneers so we'll jump them if we lose.
Jaguars at Titans - Both of us played the Jaguars, 49ers also played the Titans. We should root for the Jaguars to win which increases the Jets SOS
Dec 31, 2017 at 9:12 AM
- eastcoast49ersfan
- Veteran
- Posts: 4,112
4 games dictate who finishes with the stronger SOS between us and the Jets:
1. Bears at Vikings.
2. Browns at Steelers
3. Panthers at Falcons
4. Jaguars at Titans
We need 3 of the teams in bold to win to jump ahead of the Jets if we have the same record. As far as I know, if 2 of the teams in bold win, we finish with the same SOS as the Jets and we're not in the same division or conference, so a coin flip at the combine will determine the draft order.
1. Bears at Vikings.
2. Browns at Steelers
3. Panthers at Falcons
4. Jaguars at Titans
We need 3 of the teams in bold to win to jump ahead of the Jets if we have the same record. As far as I know, if 2 of the teams in bold win, we finish with the same SOS as the Jets and we're not in the same division or conference, so a coin flip at the combine will determine the draft order.
Dec 31, 2017 at 1:02 PM
- 49erWill
- Hall of Fame
- Posts: 86,399
Need Dolphins, Broncos, Bengals, Raiders need to win...
Dec 31, 2017 at 1:12 PM
- Ninerjohn
- Veteran
- Posts: 67,447
Originally posted by 49erWill:
Need Dolphins, Broncos, Bengals, Raiders need to win...
Hard to imagine the Raiders or Bengals winning these games.
Dec 31, 2017 at 1:51 PM
- Heroism
- Veteran
- Posts: 26,786
Niners ain't losing today.