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Smith, Tolzien thread. Yet again

Originally posted by GNielsen:
Originally posted by Allx9er:
Unbelievable.

Can you be more... specific? What's unbelievable?

that a thread about our the BACK-UPS would have to get locked
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by AZ9erfan520:
Ok so this begs the question....what do we do for a back up qb since Alex is as good as gone? I doubt we are going to use a draft pick on a qb so which veteran do we pick up in the off season?? I

Why not use a draft pick? Not short of them.

Are we talking in addition to Tolzien? Tolzien is good. He'll be a fine backup.
Originally posted by Allx9er:
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Originally posted by Allx9er:
Unbelievable.

Can you be more... specific? What's unbelievable?

that a thread about our the BACK-UPS would have to get locked

Right. People get emotional about Alex Smith, myself included.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by AZ9erfan520:
Ok so this begs the question....what do we do for a back up qb since Alex is as good as gone? I doubt we are going to use a draft pick on a qb so which veteran do we pick up in the off season?? I

Why not use a draft pick? Not short of them.

Are we talking in addition to Tolzien? Tolzien is good. He'll be a fine backup.

Yes, in addition. Two is not enough.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Montana would absolutely take off running if he saw a first down opportunity. My favorite Montana run was the '84 season Superbowl. He sees that the linebackers and db's are in man coverage and he takes off running behind the Dolphins linebacker, smiling all the way like he's a kid pulling a practical joke. By the time the linebacker realizes Montana is running down the field behind him, he's already gone for 20 yards.

This. Especially on third down, if he knew he could get the 1st.
go alex go
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Originally posted by Jtninerfan210:
I've watched every Niner game for the last 10+ years so I can tell you that I've seen all of our QBs in that time span have shortcomings on the field. Through all of AS's time in the last few years he has been consistent when it comes to diagnosing what the defense is doing and taking what they give him. Why are people so enamored with a gunslinger type of QB when a consistent smart QB can win? I'm a Niner guy through and through and I tend to back up any player wearing our teams colors...this is why I don't get the hatred for the fella. It's pretty sad joecool that you will try to find anything and everything to nitpick AS over, yet I can almost guarantee you that if we lose tomorrow because of Kaep you will avoid placing blame at his feet.

Can you explain how this math works, subtraction by addition? The team has succeeded in subtracting our identity and strongest asset (The inconvenient truth) so as to add a new wrinkle with Kaep. If anyone can explain how that's even logical I wouldn't be so frustrated with this team since after the Bears game. And anyone with a minimal football IQ could see that Kaep was going to have a fine 1st couple of games simply because he's a baller, and because the defenses hadn't gained footage of him yet.

What is our identity anyways? Are we a smash mouth team anymore, because I don't think that we are. I get the feeling that we are trying to be more like a prolific high flying Saints type of team rather than what has been a proven formula for us. I remember how excited I was watching our team come out in a million and 1 formations each week running exotic shifts and motions so as to gain the edge. Now I'm literally cussing out the tv everytime I see that damn shotgun read option crap!!!


How is Smith more consistent? His lowest three QB ratings were 43.1, 74.5, 78.1. Kaep's lowest three QB ratings were 72.0, 83.9, 84.7.

And look at who's more consistent by quarter...

Kaep QB rating:
1st Quarter 106.3
2nd Quarter 85.2
3rd Quarter 108.4
4th Quarter 98.8

Smith QB rating:
1st Quarter 99.1
2nd Quarter 109.6
3rd Quarter 122.7
4th Quarter 67.4

Kaep takes fewer sacks, fewer INT's, fewer turnovers, more YPG, more YPP, has a higher QBR, equal in touchdowns scored (both running and passing), is a far better runner, with a far better arm, with better accuracy, and he has been more consistent. Smith has the QB rating by a couple points and completion %, both of these stats are helped by the fact that he takes more sacks and doesn't attempt difficult throws.

With almost every conceivable stat, Kaep is better. With every physical attribute, Kaep is better. With team chemistry, we see Kaep laughing it up with his players on the sideline like we have rarely seen with Smith.

And how many times have you seen us do the read option the last few games? We have almost removed it entirely. We have probably done more audibles, shifts, and exotic formations with Kaep than with Smith.

Accuracy:
- passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage
Alex Smith: 22/26, 138 yds, 84.6%
Colin Kaepernick:16/21, 118 yds, 76.2%

- passes traveling 1-10 yds
Alex Smith: 100/135, 932 yds, 74.1%
Colin Kaepernick: 67/101, 624 yds, 66.3%

- passes traveling 11-20 yds
Alex Smith: 22/39, 388 yds, 56.4%
Colin Kaepernick: 23/43, 398 yds 53.5%

- passes traveling 21-30 yds
Alex Smith: 5/8, 137 yds, 62.5%
Colin Kaepernick: 11/13, 307 yds, 84.6%

- passes traveling 31-40 yds
Alex Smith: 2/6, 81 yds, 33.3%
Colin Kaepernick:2/7, 91 yds, 28.6%

- passes traveling 41+ yds
Alex Smith: 1/3, 55 yds, 33.3%
Colin Kaepernick: 0/4, 0 yds, 0%

The numbers don't support your accuracy argument, he only has 1 fewer turnover than Alex although he has put the ball on the ground twice as much...that's more luck than anything. He takes fewer sacks, but he loses more yds per sack than Alex does...7 yds to 5.7 yds. I mean, you can crunch the numbers all day and they'll never support your argument...at best, for right now, Kaepernick and Alex are fairly equal.
Originally posted by GoldClub219:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Originally posted by Jtninerfan210:
I've watched every Niner game for the last 10+ years so I can tell you that I've seen all of our QBs in that time span have shortcomings on the field. Through all of AS's time in the last few years he has been consistent when it comes to diagnosing what the defense is doing and taking what they give him. Why are people so enamored with a gunslinger type of QB when a consistent smart QB can win? I'm a Niner guy through and through and I tend to back up any player wearing our teams colors...this is why I don't get the hatred for the fella. It's pretty sad joecool that you will try to find anything and everything to nitpick AS over, yet I can almost guarantee you that if we lose tomorrow because of Kaep you will avoid placing blame at his feet.

Can you explain how this math works, subtraction by addition? The team has succeeded in subtracting our identity and strongest asset (The inconvenient truth) so as to add a new wrinkle with Kaep. If anyone can explain how that's even logical I wouldn't be so frustrated with this team since after the Bears game. And anyone with a minimal football IQ could see that Kaep was going to have a fine 1st couple of games simply because he's a baller, and because the defenses hadn't gained footage of him yet.

What is our identity anyways? Are we a smash mouth team anymore, because I don't think that we are. I get the feeling that we are trying to be more like a prolific high flying Saints type of team rather than what has been a proven formula for us. I remember how excited I was watching our team come out in a million and 1 formations each week running exotic shifts and motions so as to gain the edge. Now I'm literally cussing out the tv everytime I see that damn shotgun read option crap!!!


How is Smith more consistent? His lowest three QB ratings were 43.1, 74.5, 78.1. Kaep's lowest three QB ratings were 72.0, 83.9, 84.7.

And look at who's more consistent by quarter...

Kaep QB rating:
1st Quarter 106.3
2nd Quarter 85.2
3rd Quarter 108.4
4th Quarter 98.8

Smith QB rating:
1st Quarter 99.1
2nd Quarter 109.6
3rd Quarter 122.7
4th Quarter 67.4

Kaep takes fewer sacks, fewer INT's, fewer turnovers, more YPG, more YPP, has a higher QBR, equal in touchdowns scored (both running and passing), is a far better runner, with a far better arm, with better accuracy, and he has been more consistent. Smith has the QB rating by a couple points and completion %, both of these stats are helped by the fact that he takes more sacks and doesn't attempt difficult throws.

With almost every conceivable stat, Kaep is better. With every physical attribute, Kaep is better. With team chemistry, we see Kaep laughing it up with his players on the sideline like we have rarely seen with Smith.

And how many times have you seen us do the read option the last few games? We have almost removed it entirely. We have probably done more audibles, shifts, and exotic formations with Kaep than with Smith.

Accuracy:
- passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage
Alex Smith: 22/26, 138 yds, 84.6%
Colin Kaepernick:16/21, 118 yds, 76.2%

- passes traveling 1-10 yds
Alex Smith: 100/135, 932 yds, 74.1%
Colin Kaepernick: 67/101, 624 yds, 66.3%

- passes traveling 11-20 yds
Alex Smith: 22/39, 388 yds, 56.4%
Colin Kaepernick: 23/43, 398 yds 53.5%

- passes traveling 21-30 yds
Alex Smith: 5/8, 137 yds, 62.5%
Colin Kaepernick: 11/13, 307 yds, 84.6%

- passes traveling 31-40 yds
Alex Smith: 2/6, 81 yds, 33.3%
Colin Kaepernick:2/7, 91 yds, 28.6%

- passes traveling 41+ yds
Alex Smith: 1/3, 55 yds, 33.3%
Colin Kaepernick: 0/4, 0 yds, 0%

The numbers don't support your accuracy argument, he only has 1 fewer turnover than Alex although he has put the ball on the ground twice as much...that's more luck than anything. He takes fewer sacks, but he loses more yds per sack than Alex does...7 yds to 5.7 yds. I mean, you can crunch the numbers all day and they'll never support your argument...at best, for right now, Kaepernick and Alex are fairly equal.

It's time to let this go. I've had to, and we all need to do so. There is a LOT of reason to feel either way about the decision but nothing will change it. I just want to win.
  • Shemp
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,583
Originally posted by hofer36:
go alex go

my thoughts exactly, lol
Alex Smith fans in here are strangely silent.
Originally posted by GoldClub219:
Accuracy:
--------

The numbers don't support your accuracy argument, he only has 1 fewer turnover than Alex although he has put the ball on the ground twice as much...that's more luck than anything. He takes fewer sacks, but he loses more yds per sack than Alex does...7 yds to 5.7 yds. I mean, you can crunch the numbers all day and they'll never support your argument...at best, for right now, Kaepernick and Alex are fairly equal.


It's subjective of course to say one quarterback is more accurate than another. But completion percentage does not demonstrate accuracy, Smith looks for the easier completion, which has many benefits, but also many limitations. Kaep attempts more difficult throws, which likewise has advantages and disadvantages.

Looking at the throws Kaep makes down field, I think most would say he throws pinpoint passes more often than Smith does, but again, it's subjective. To prove it we would have to look at the throws and the space and the placement of a bunch of different throws. If you think Smith is more accurate, fine. It would take too much effort to prove it either way.
Only a blind alex smith supporter wouldn't understand the high completion percentage for Alex Smith are the results of check downs/dump offs/short passes.
Originally posted by Kaepernick12:
Only a blind alex smith supporter wouldn't understand the high completion percentage for Alex Smith are the results of check downs/dump offs/short passes.


Not trying to beat on Smith, but here's another example:

Smith throws one pass against Arizona when we played them in the last game. It was third down and 10 or something, and he completes a pass for 5 or so yards. That makes it fourth down and forces a punt. But now look at the stats. His completion percentage is 100% and his quarterback rating is in the 90's.
Just another example of why these two stats don't tell the true story.
Originally posted by Kaepernick12:
Only a blind alex smith supporter wouldn't understand the high completion percentage for Alex Smith are the results of check downs/dump offs/short passes.

Reported
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by Kaepernick12:
Only a blind alex smith supporter wouldn't understand the high completion percentage for Alex Smith are the results of check downs/dump offs/short passes.

Reported

Thank you. He is now on vacation, so lets keep the thread pleasant.
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