Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Right you are. We had 10+ wins 16 consecutive seasons. Now if you are right and Montana lost 5 and Young lost 6, and of course we won 5.
So in our 16 years of 10+ wins we won it all 31.25% of the time.
Now, if we bring it back to present, it would say that if we can win 10+ games for the next 2 seasons (total of 4, last year, this year, and next two years), we would have a good chance of winning at least one championship in that time.
There you go! Great perspective. I would caution that 10+ wins a season for a 16 year run is the longest single run of that type in NFL history so that kind of run, by definition, doesn't happen very often, but if Harbaugh keeps taking the team to the playoffs, chances are the Niners are going to go all the way again if not this year, one of these years. This season, I could easily imagine Kaepernick surprising a lot of people, getting hot, catching fire, and by doing that, making up for whatever the defense is going to lose by not having one of its most important players at full strength or on the field at all.