Week 14: Thoughts after rewatching the game...

Originally posted by vrabbit:
You could use numbers to make your argument, but I'm pretty sure we've both watched Luck and Kap so far this season and Luck's game is on a complete different level, yes he's made mistakes but, unlike Kap, his positives far outweigh his negatives up to this point. We could also use Kap's fumbles that either him or his teammates recover. I'm not really about to engage in this debate because 1) we're hijacking the thread, and 2) I consider it silly.

Andrew Luck played in a pro style (west coast) Offense while at Stanford. He thrived under Harbaugh. Now that he is in Indy he is being coached by Bruce Arians whom while with the steelers proved to be an agressive play caller. Roman and Harbaugh prefer to manage the offense with high percentage passing plays. Rewatch the Dolphins game and you will see that they played most formations with 1 wr and 2 te sets. This type of Offense will not allow us to see Andrew Luck type yardage.

Originally posted by Marvin49:

Originally posted by olapac:

Originally posted by vrabbit:

Originally posted by kidash98:

Originally posted by vrabbit:

Originally posted by kidash98:
One thing I still notice about Kaep is that he still holds the ball for too damn long. Not always, and he played well yesterday, but there were instances in which he could have let go of some of his passes earlier.

- 98

this is to expect, he's not andrew luck, he's not going to go out there his first 4 games and figure out his reads against the kitchen sinks defenses are throwing at him.

It's part of the risk you take when you put him out there

I understand that but it's not like he's a freakin' rookie either. I'm giving him credit for the last few games, he deserves it. Just making an observation.

- 98

he's a 2nd year QB after 4 starts, he STRUGGLES against zone defense for the most part. I wasn't trying to infer you weren't giving him credit FWIW

It's weird - after 4 games it *feels* like he's struggles, but Mike Sando had a blog entry showing Kap to have the highest QBR rating over the past few years for a QB making their 1st 4 starts. Granted, the Bears game skews the numbers quite a bit, as do the 2 50-yrd runs - and lots of folks hate the QBR as a stat - but I thought that was an interesting take.

I watched the game yesterday and was frustrated with him more so than any of the other 3 starts; yet he had a rating over 100, and I expect his QBR to be good as well.

See...I don't get that. What was frustrating? No wild throws. No turnovers. Displayed the big arm....what was so frustrating? The checkdowns? The Rams and Dolphins have gone to great pains to stack the box and play deep zone. THAT's why Kaep is checking down. Teams are leaving everything open underneath. They have also been strong pass rushes so when they try to throw deep the rush is getting to him. This isn't Kaep being scared to throw deep or the O being uber conservative...they are taking what the D is giving them.

Eventually, Kaep is going to figure all this out and then teams won't be able to play him this way. He will make them pay for it. Teams playing him this way now is a GOOD thing because it will teach him how to defeat it. The O-Line also needs to improve in pass protection.

BTW, if Delanie Walker catches that pass in the endzone against the Rams and Moss catched it against the Dolphins, we are having entirely different conversations.

Marvin, I agree with you. That's why I mentioned the stats claiming his 1st 4 games were better than any other QB making their 1st 4 starts recently. However, to me, what's frustrating is that none of the last 2 games does Kap look like the same QB on that Monday night against the Bears. Granted, some of that is because he's taking what the defenses are giving him. I was just hoping that the QB change was going to usher in a new era at offense, and it hasn't happened yet. Maybe it was wishful thinking to feel the offense would become a juggernaut overnight. We're about the same as we were before - conservative, efficient, and if we don't make mistakes to beat ourselves, we're 4-0 in the last 4 games. Now, if Kap gets more knotches in his belt, there's a real possibility next year that we could be more dynamic on offense, it just hasn't happened yet.

There was another post on this board saying that Kap and Alex are essentially the same. I agree to some degree. But if Kap doesn't turn the ball over, with the added dimension he brings from a running standpoint, this was the right move to make. I just *want* a little more excitement - similar to that Monday night destruction - and the last 2 games haven't produced that.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Marvin, I will take a once in a long time challenge to your viewpoint, altho not major. Getting Kap in in the last 5 games of the season was nuts(my opinion), in that the kid can't get his schidt together from a roman play call , to Harbaw, to Kap , in time for kap to read the D, change the call at LOS and then struggle to get the info transmitted to his teammates. Something has to give here. We have to shorten the time it takes to get info to Kap. My suggestions are two:

1)Cut roman out of the loop entirely. Let him help do the O gameplan then turn off his microphone. For everbody thinking he is such a wizard, my feeling is he is more a lizard. Shut him up. Let the HC be the OC , just like at stanford...and last yr to great extent....Getting the woeful roman in the way is just not working. The result as all 9er fans and all 31 other teams noted is that Kap cannot get the play in on time, change calls, and get the info distributed to his team before the 5 yrd penalty of delay of game goes off. And we saw Coach call T.O. how many times, plus kap got delay of game....unnnhhh, 5, 6, 7 or was it 8,9 or 10 times. Me, I don't want to see this hacked up game again. We looked for all the world like a team the NYG, GB, Vikes, TExans, ATL, NYG, SEA, Pats could just roll over. When that happens and we lose to SEA AND Pats, Coach is going to have to cut roman out of the loop and get plays in quicker, or he is going to have to go to the guy who could put up with this delayed call bs and call a play anyway...and that is alex.

2)Marvin, kap is definitely the better football player...but not the best for this team at present. He NEVER should have been made starter without winning #1 in PS and TC.. Learning how to get a late call in, change play at LOS, and not get a delay penalty is just too much to ask of him. Good as Kap is, he cannot overcome the late play calls coming in and sure can't get the play changed at LOS and communicated to his teammates. Only way to do this is either use alex who can do the above, or get roman out of playcalling period.

If and when we lose the playoff game with Kap, harbaw is going to get the blame and he should. NObody, no matter how talented, can learn to read Ds , change plays at LOS and then communicate to his teammates without a full yrs experience. To me the Kap experiment failed. Maybe cutting roman out of loop will help kap, maybe not. But any reference to our plays coming in late as a minor problem is way off track. It is THE ONE thing that will take this SB away from us and it is coach induced. Either roman or kap goes. If plays still can't get in on time, then we don't deserve to be in the playoffs....and right now....we don't.

I see what you're saying, but I disagree.

I like Alex. I've always defended him. I think we can all admit tho that he was limited. He played very well and I don't really like the way he has kinda been discarded, but I do agree with Harbaughs decision.

1st off, I applaud having the balls to make the move. Just about every coach in the NFL makes the "safe" choice. They don't want to overturn the cart. They don't want to put their neck on the line. Harbaugh knows that he is exposing himself to crticism and he doesn't care. I love that. Ya know who else was like that? Bill Walsh (Montana/Young). Jimmy Johnson (Traded Hershel Walker). Bill Belichik (Bledsoe/Brady). Bill Parcells (Simms/Hostetler...tho he did eventually go back to Simms). Harbaugh has a long way to go to be in that class, but he fact that he is willing to make that decision tells me alot about him as a coach.

As for the decision itself, I was on the fence when I first heard it. The more time passes, the more I agree with it. We are seeing Kaep play as a young player who is still learning and his results are similar to Alex when he is maxed out. He is taking some lumps and making mistakes from time to time, but I defy you to find a guy who is playing this well through his first 4 starts.

If the Niners lose in the playoffs, I am not putting this all on this decision. The assumption is of course that it was a poor choice and that Alex would CLEARLY have done better. Why? Why would Alex have done better? Most of the critical things I've read of Kaep lately have been checkdowns....and Alex throws a TON of those.

Kaep clock management needs work. No doubt...but what ELSE do you see that makes you so convinced this was the wrong choice.

The UPSIDE on the other hand is that he threatens defenses in ways Alex never will. He stretches them vertically and horizontally. The way these past few teams have defended him are completely different from how they would have defended Alex.

I do understand why people are a bit put off by the switch, but it's clear that Harbaugh thinks Kaep gives them the bast chance to win a SB THIS year. If he believes that, then I'm riding with Harbaugh on this one.

Originally posted by olapac:
Marvin, I agree with you. That's why I mentioned the stats claiming his 1st 4 games were better than any other QB making their 1st 4 starts recently. However, to me, what's frustrating is that none of the last 2 games does Kap look like the same QB on that Monday night against the Bears. Granted, some of that is because he's taking what the defenses are giving him. I was just hoping that the QB change was going to usher in a new era at offense, and it hasn't happened yet. Maybe it was wishful thinking to feel the offense would become a juggernaut overnight. We're about the same as we were before - conservative, efficient, and if we don't make mistakes to beat ourselves, we're 4-0 in the last 4 games. Now, if Kap gets more knotches in his belt, there's a real possibility next year that we could be more dynamic on offense, it just hasn't happened yet.

There was another post on this board saying that Kap and Alex are essentially the same. I agree to some degree. But if Kap doesn't turn the ball over, with the added dimension he brings from a running standpoint, this was the right move to make. I just *want* a little more excitement - similar to that Monday night destruction - and the last 2 games haven't produced that.

Roman was the run coordinator at Stanford. Cossell calls the 49ers the most creative with their run formations. I have not been impressed with our passing game under Roman. The Dolphins were better against the run then the pass, did we see more 3 or 4 wr formations or more power formations? Like Marvin, I am excited when he throws the ball intermediate to deep. He is more accurate than Smith whom throws were only the wr can get it, but not usually were the wr can still run after making the catch.

Marv, kudos as usual. Great minds think alike.

Great report as usual Marv.

Great read, as always, Marvin. I can't wait either!

Only thing I'd add is about Frank Gore. I agree with what you said, but I'd heap even more praise on the guy.

He's not the fastest back in the league, or even on his team, but he has great patience, terrific vision, and he makes some unbelievable lateral cuts.

Plus he's just got no "quit" in him.

He's not too bad at pass protection either.

Or run blocking. Remember that 50 yard run that CK made against the Rams--Frank made a pancake block to help get it started.

I'd love to see him get a SB ring, (along with Justin Smith, who's got similar attitude on D), but whether they ever win a SB with him or not, he will always be a champion in my eyes. He just plays at that level, every game, every play.

Once again a top-notch post.

Here are some of my thoughts:

1). Totally agree w/you on this one. Kap is getting better every week. I've always been an Alex supporter BUT Kap is a better option. I'm done with the Alex/Kap drama queens - GET OVER IT! Move on and comment on the game.

2). Moss is getting held and interfered with every game. Sooner or later we'll start to get the calls and he'll get more TD's.

3).

Well i watched again, and gonna be honest, i didnt see what some saw. And i have to say we in the zone are about 50-50. Which is some see half full, some half empty.

To say the kid doesnt have talent is an understatement. I'm gonna just go by stats over the past two games, thats simple. No passing Td's to a TE or WR in the last two games. Yup i said it correctly not one.

The rushing TD was cool this week, then i think he broke off one last week. But no one noticing a pattern. Good for one long run. and to me doesnt take the place of the entire game.

Im seeing more and more growing pains, but thats to be expected. Not gonna go into too much, cuz then the birds gonna come out, and oh yeah that aint right.

But i mean who cares. WE are in the zone to give our opinion, not have it liked by everyone.

I'm not gonna start with the Smith crap, because to be honest, I didnt talk about the backup ever as a 49er fan, and like the kid or not, he's not the starter.

I'll just say, had the QB previously not thrown a TD in two straight games, the zone would explode. Now dont get me wrong, CRabs is killing, but thats about it right now. Gore is MVP like as usual. How many 3 and outs did we have this week. I dont think we converted a third down until the 3rd of 4th quarter. But he played pretty good. Maybe i'm just missing something.

The last two weeks, i can count on two hands, how many deep balls he's thrown. You know the one that keeps him the starter. Even the announcers said in the 4th quarter, well we've only seen that one deep ball to Moss, but isnt this one of the reasons he's starting.

Now once again, is he playing like crap hell no. He's playing like a 2nd year quarterback with his first starting experience. And is 3-1. But i see him being bailed out just like the QB previously was. And witout the point in turnovers that Kaep is benefitting from. I mean two straight weeks a turnover in the beginning and the defense, and this week special teams bails him out.

I say give the kid his props, lets stop hoping he fails (some of us) just so Smith can be put in. Just support, and root for whomever is behind center.
But in no way sugarcoat what u see, regardless of any heat u get from fans, because we are all fans at the end of the day.

As we all say Go Niners!

Great post. 1 important point. I think we need the Seatle game more than NE if we had to pick. Somehow some way Arizona will get up for Dec. 30th. I don't want to take any chances. I suspect we'll beat NE. can we FINALLY win 3 in a row. It's time for a 7 game streak. NE, SEA, ARI, W, W, W!!

Sorry about that.

3). Was VD being double teamed often yesterday?

4). Finally, Dixon did something worthwhile.

5). Culliver was a steal in the draft.

6). We're not playing Championship caliber football yet. BUT I can see enormous potential right around the corner. Hopefully sooner than later.

7). Is Iupati's penalties in our past games coming from the same scheme? are the bad guys game planning that?

8). LMJ & AJ have come in a good time and impressed. Those guys are FAST! Great weapons to use in the upcoming games.

9). Not overly impressed w/Roman's game planning. He's hot and cold and is slow on adjustments. We can't be slow moving into the playoffs.

Thanks again Marv!

Originally posted by Jersey9er:
Well i watched again, and gonna be honest, i didnt see what some saw. And i have to say we in the zone are about 50-50. Which is some see half full, some half empty.

To say the kid doesnt have talent is an understatement. I'm gonna just go by stats over the past two games, thats simple. No passing Td's to a TE or WR in the last two games. Yup i said it correctly not one.

The rushing TD was cool this week, then i think he broke off one last week. But no one noticing a pattern. Good for one long run. and to me doesnt take the place of the entire game.

Im seeing more and more growing pains, but thats to be expected. Not gonna go into too much, cuz then the birds gonna come out, and oh yeah that aint right.

But i mean who cares. WE are in the zone to give our opinion, not have it liked by everyone.

I'm not gonna start with the Smith crap, because to be honest, I didnt talk about the backup ever as a 49er fan, and like the kid or not, he's not the starter.

I'll just say, had the QB previously not thrown a TD in two straight games, the zone would explode. Now dont get me wrong, CRabs is killing, but thats about it right now. Gore is MVP like as usual. How many 3 and outs did we have this week. I dont think we converted a third down until the 3rd of 4th quarter. But he played pretty good. Maybe i'm just missing something.

The last two weeks, i can count on two hands, how many deep balls he's thrown. You know the one that keeps him the starter. Even the announcers said in the 4th quarter, well we've only seen that one deep ball to Moss, but isnt this one of the reasons he's starting.

Now once again, is he playing like crap hell no. He's playing like a 2nd year quarterback with his first starting experience. And is 3-1. But i see him being bailed out just like the QB previously was. And witout the point in turnovers that Kaep is benefitting from. I mean two straight weeks a turnover in the beginning and the defense, and this week special teams bails him out.

I say give the kid his props, lets stop hoping he fails (some of us) just so Smith can be put in. Just support, and root for whomever is behind center.
But in no way sugarcoat what u see, regardless of any heat u get from fans, because we are all fans at the end of the day.

As we all say Go Niners!

Just to address part of your point above...

YES. He is in there to complete more of those longer passes. He WAS completing them against the Bears and Saints. What has happened since is that defenses are playing him differently than they had before and differently than they played Smith. They are playing zone deep down the field and leaving recievers open underneath.

Thats why he's completing shorter passes. Additionally, deeper passes require the QB to hold the ball longer and expose himself to the pass rush....and that's why he's been getting sacked.

They will work this out tho. Defenses are fearing that deep ball right now and it's the job of Harbaugh/Roman/Kaepernick to figure out how to expose that coverage.

BTW...YES....people would be ripping Alex apart if he had 2 games in a row without a TD...but they would have been equally wrong to do so.

Tough to tell from the stands but was the Dolphins TD a TD? I thought he tried to catch it with one hand and by the time he brought it to his body and controlled it he was out of bounds.

Originally posted by LasVegasWally:
Sorry about that.

3). Was VD being double teamed often yesterday?

Thanks again Marv!

Dolphins were pretty much in man coverage all game, with the exception to a couple of situational downs.

Originally posted by Marvin49:
Just to address part of your point above...

YES. He is in there to complete more of those longer passes. He WAS completing them against the Bears and Saints. What has happened since is that defenses are playing him differently than they had before and differently than they played Smith. They are playing zone deep down the field and leaving recievers open underneath.

Thats why he's completing shorter passes. Additionally, deeper passes require the QB to hold the ball longer and expose himself to the pass rush....and that's why he's been getting sacked.

They will work this out tho. Defenses are fearing that deep ball right now and it's the job of Harbaugh/Roman/Kaepernick to figure out how to expose that coverage.

BTW...YES....people would be ripping Alex apart if he had 2 games in a row without a TD...but they would have been equally wrong to do so.

WE dont send enough Receivers out..Defense take the deep ball..have a guy go underneath ...have the RB go wide to take the LB out of the middle

but we dont and continue with big packages and not enough outside speed guys