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Does Alex Smith have any Trade Value???

3rd round pick and a good kicker
Once again: KC is not trading for a QB again after their disaster the previous time they did so. They'll have the #1 overall pick and a new coach who will basically draft his guy. That's them out then. The same holds for all the currently terrible teams, including SD (definitely new coach, could keep Rivers and/or draft a new guy high). Jacksonville is an interesting case since they have a high pick as well (possibly #2), but they may not have written off Gabbert already (they might, but who knows). Still, they have the option of drafting again and hoping. Oakland similarly may try to draft and have Palmer front the rook. Carolina are set. And so on for the bad teams. Philly is a possible, but it seems from today's Babin cut that they may be blowing the whole thing up and rebuilding, and they will hold a high pick.

Which brings us to: you forget that Vick will definitely hit the open market as an FA (no way Philly or a trade partner takes over that contract. Now, it may well be that Smith is better than Vick (I believe so, anyway), but one is an FA and another will require a trade. He's bound to take some trade partners away. If you're Arizona for example, Vick might be a better option for you. Sure, that terrible OL will probably get him killed, but so will it do for Alex. Why not use the high pick and draft for OL, sign Vick and keep one of their current three stooges for backup (Skelton probably).

Furthermore, teams can just take the risk and wait until he gets cut, as he definitely will if he loses his job.

The Palmer doesn't compare, it was a panicked move in the middle of the season.

Whatever one thinks of the guy (and I happen to like him and appreciate what he's done for us) Alex's not going to have many suitors as trade bait, if any. I think the best for the team and for the guy is to let him go and try his luck in FA where he'll be far more desirable. He may get a good backup role in a place like the Jets were the incumbent is a muppet and may quickly make way for him, or get a veteran mentor stint to start while a rook is learning the ropes. Either way I either see that happening for him through FA, or through a low pick offer (4th or thereabouts).
  • fryet
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I have a couple of questions.

1. Can the 49ers trade Alex before they have to pay him?
2. If they pay him and then trade him, is he still a hit on their cap? (I assume that a roster bonus is not transferable in a trade)
3rd or 4th at best .
Originally posted by fryet:
I have a couple of questions.

1. Can the 49ers trade Alex before they have to pay him?
2. If they pay him and then trade him, is he still a hit on their cap? (I assume that a roster bonus is not transferable in a trade)

His roster bonus is due March 1st when the league year begins, so we would take a $1M dead money hit to trade him. It's best to cut him than risk a trade.
Next season will benefit Alex nicely just like when he was drafted. The QB prospects are just not that impressive. As a result I see a needy team trading to get a known commodity over a gamble in a weak QB class.
Well even if you wanted to trade Alex you can't right now. He's probably the best back-up in the league right now. What if Kaep gets hurt? If Kaep has success, I do agree Alex should get cut to help with cap room so sign other needs (goldson, etc.).
  • buck
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  • Posts: 8,486
Originally posted by dj43:
Yes, really. There are a lot of teams out there that are struggling with their current QB. They would love to have a guy who can lead the league in percentage and be high on the yards/att. list, as well as reading defenses well.


I agree.

But, does it make sense for a team to wait for him to become a free agent in March?

Given the quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class, some team like Kansas City, which should have the first pick in the draft, would love to get Smith.

Smith would solve one major problem and having him would let them pick best player available.

See what Harbaugh decides tomorrow. If Kaepernick is named the starter, Smith may want a trade.

If I were Baalke, I would work with Smith and Smith's agent to arrange a trade. .

I would accept a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 4th round pick in 2014 from the Chiefs.
  • cciowa
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  • Posts: 22,958
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by dj43:
Yes, really. There are a lot of teams out there that are struggling with their current QB. They would love to have a guy who can lead the league in percentage and be high on the yards/att. list, as well as reading defenses well.


I agree.

But, does it make sense for a team to wait for him to become a free agent in March?

Given the quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class, some team like Kansas City, which should have the first pick in the draft, would love to get Smith.

Smith would solve one major problem and having him would let them pick best player available.

See what Harbaugh decides tomorrow. If Kaepernick is named the starter, Smith may want a trade.

If I were Baalke, I would work with Smith and Smith's agent to arrange a trade. .

I would accept a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 4th round pick in 2014 from the Chiefs.
you do not trade him this year for gods sake. am i wrong?
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by dj43:
Yes, really. There are a lot of teams out there that are struggling with their current QB. They would love to have a guy who can lead the league in percentage and be high on the yards/att. list, as well as reading defenses well.


I agree.

But, does it make sense for a team to wait for him to become a free agent in March?

Given the quarterbacks in the 2013 draft class, some team like Kansas City, which should have the first pick in the draft, would love to get Smith.

Smith would solve one major problem and having him would let them pick best player available.

See what Harbaugh decides tomorrow. If Kaepernick is named the starter, Smith may want a trade.

If I were Baalke, I would work with Smith and Smith's agent to arrange a trade. .

I would accept a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 4th round pick in 2014 from the Chiefs.
you do not trade him this year for gods sake. am i wrong?

Wow I can agree with you sometimes. Why would we trade him this year. What would it prove? That the front office truly does hate him?
[ Edited by PA49ersfan on Nov 27, 2012 at 4:55 PM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,486
Originally posted by cciowa:
you do not trade him this year for gods sake. am i wrong?

I conditioned the the trade on Alex Smith wanting a trade IF Kaepernic is named the starter.

I guess I was not clear.

I have no idea what will happen tomorrow or how Alex would react to the naming of Kaepernick the starter.
[ Edited by buck on Nov 27, 2012 at 5:00 PM ]
Originally posted by dj43:
Smith has played in enough systems, and against enough other teams, to have significant value.

Here are the teams that are well settled at QB based on actual play (not the amount of money they have committed):
Atlanta
New Orleans
New England
Denver
NY Giants
Houston
Green Bay
Washington
Indy
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Carolina (barely)
12

These are on the bubble:
Cincy
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Detroit
4

All the rest would be glad to have Alex Smith as their starting QB. Question is: Would Alex be willing to go to any of the others? There are some very bad teams out there and they would be willing to give up a lot to have consistent QB play.

Who knows? Baltimore might balk at playing Flacco elite money, and settle for the cheaper Alex Smith.
Originally posted by bjghum:
I say KC and Arizona are the two likely options for Smith next yr.

He has zero trade value for us. Teams know we more than likely aren't going to swallow that 7 million dollar poison pill in April.

Coach Whisenhunt will be looking to stabilize the QB position, and save his job. (if he is even still there after this season)

Same more than likely goes for KC. If they all don't get fired after this season. They will be pretty desperate for a quick fix.

Other options would more than likely be clear back-up roles.

There were plenty of teams that needed another option at QB this off-season. Money talks. It just doesn't look like
any teams were willing to spend much of it on Smith.If there were teams out there, they all could have went and got him.

Going to Pitt to back-up Roethlisberger wouldn't be the worst place.They would be smart to spend a little cash on a solid back-up.

The $8 million "poison pill" isn't a poison pill for another team. It's at the low end of QB salaries, and is pretty much a one-year guarantee. Very cheap.

Someone recently suggested that one option is to backup Manning in Denver. It's a up-and-coming team, and Manning won't play much longer.
Maybe the only real question would be can he succeed in a different system?

He would be a solid backup for any team not in need of a turn key starting QB for sure.

What would really suck for him is to go to a team like the Jets. Teams like that where the coaching staff has no idea what they are doing and makes desperate moves. Probably look at Alex's successful couple of seasons and expect that level of play without taking into account everything that was in place for him here.

I could see trade value I just don't see us trying to get a trade for him in the first place. They would likely let him walk and he could see what he gets as a free agent. We aren't really desperate for players or draft picks here and what we would get for him would likely be a waste.
Originally posted by sfninerfanMax:
I think if Alex is traded it would be for at least a 2nd round pick, maybe a player added in. QB's come at a premium and some team would be willing to take the chance. As long as kaep's salary remains low, the Niners have leverage to keep Smith as the backup. If Kaep gets extended with a big raise--the leverage goes to the other teams.

It doesn't work that way. If Smith stays and continues to earn $8+ million as a backup, Kaepernick will demand higher pay. $17 million for the QB position would be too much.
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