Chris Mortenson "Niners going to win the Super Bowl this year"

Mort is correct.

Originally posted by Joecool:
They keep talking about our defense but defenses don't repeat what our defense did. We missed a prime opportunity to win a SB last season. The big if is whether or not our Offense can take the next step and make up for any drop-off of stuff that can't be game planned for such as turnovers.

Defenses are usually more consistent than offenses so I'm not too worried about them playing at or near the level of last season. The big question on defense for me is; can Justin Smith continue to play at such a high level? OTOH, Aldon Smith will add a lot more overall than last year.

I fully expect the offense to be much better than last season if for no other reason than the full off-season. Also, adding Manningham plus a draft pick to the mix of Crabtree and Williams, the receiving corps will be better. Now if Moss can even play enough to make the roster... The questions are still at RG and Center, as well as whether Gore can give something close to last season. Adding Jacobs and a more experienced Hunter should equal a run game to be at least as good as last season.

So much can happen, especially injuries, that it would be foolish to be the mortgage but this team should go deep into the playoffs again.

Dont tell me! Show me!

Originally posted by susweel:

Originally posted by ImaMod:

Originally posted by btthepunk:
And to think this time last year people were saying we were gonna be drafting Andrew Luck with the first pick this year.

there's still a possibility

Yah he might fall to us.

You guys got the cocaine to plant on him?

Look in my eyes

What do you see?

The cult of personality

I know your anger,

I know your dreams

I've been everything you want to be

Oh, I'm the cult of personality

If Jim Harbaugh had an entrance theme...I rmember this time last year...ESPN hated on us. What a difference a year makes.

What's his track record over the last 5 years?

It could be the Kiss of Death.

big deal. it's a safe bet for him to say that.

It's not that far of a stretch when we should have won it this year.

Man, kind of wanted to be a little under the radar. Guess that's hard to do when we made it to the Championship game last year.

Not only were we VERY healthy last year, a huge reason we were so good in 2011, turnover ratio. We had one of the best turnover ratios of all time...

2011

9ers = +28 = Won NFC West
Pack = +24 = Won NFC North
Pats = +17 = Won AFC East

2010
Pats = +28 = Won AFC East
Pitt = +17 = Won AFC North
Atl = +14 = Won AFC South

2009
Pack = +24 = WC
Philly = +15 = WC
NO = +11 = Won NFC South

2008
Miami = +17 = Won AFC East -
Tenn = +14 = Won AFC South
Balt = +13 = WC

2007
SD = +24 = Won AFC West
Indy = +18 = Won AFC South
Pats = +16 = Won AFC East

Couple things

1. Every team in the top 3 made the playoffs
2. Pats were on the list the most @ 3 times and made it to the SB in two of those years ( lost both )
3. Pack made it twice, but no other teams made it on that list a 2nd time in 5 years.

So what does it all mean? Making the top 3 guarantees that you make the playoffs the last 5 years and making it back into the top 3 is very difficult from season to season. We shall see if opening up the offense also lowers our turnover ratio in 2012. It may be worth it in the end if we can maintain a +15 or so ratio while increasing our PPG up from 23.8 ( 11th in the league ) and keeping our D in the top 5 for points allowed per game.

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by Ether:

Originally posted by Joecool:
They keep talking about our defense but defenses don't repeat what our defense did. We missed a prime opportunity to win a SB last season. The big if is whether or not our Offense can take the next step and make up for any drop-off of stuff that can't be game planned for such as turnovers.

Why not? 11 returning starters. Same head coach and coordinators. Same philosophy and scheme. The only reason our defense won't repeat what they did last year is because they will be even better.

i to do not understand why so many are so willing to pass our defense off as a one season wonder.The ravens have been a great elite defensive team for years,, who is to say we are not going to be team now?I have heard no logical reason from anyone as to why we can not have an elite defense again?Is it because after all those years of futility, some fans just can not accept the fact we could be on the cusp of a new dynasty?Is it because they hate alex smith so much they refuse to believe?i am just asking. joe, the ravens defense has repeated what they do year after year so why do you think we can not be that team now?The patriots have always been known for taking problem children and turning them around. who is to say we can not become that team?why?

I don't doubt our D and do think that it will improve this year over last year. I also think that our O will dramatically improve.

Having said that, JoeCool's point is valid in one respect: TURNOVERS. It is very hard to repeat the turnover ratio that we had last year. This is not due to any lack of skill or production, but rather just luck. Luck is an element of the game that cannot be fully eliminated or accounted for. An oblong ball, when rolling free, can go any number of ways. Player position does not always determine where it ends up. That is why I will not be surprised to hear that the Niners 2012 turnover stats are worse than the 2011 ones.

We are the trendy pick. We "overachieved" last year and have had a good off season. But our schedule is going to be tough.

Originally posted by NineFourNiner:
I don't doubt our D and do think that it will improve this year over last year. I also think that our O will dramatically improve.

Having said that, JoeCool's point is valid in one respect: TURNOVERS. It is very hard to repeat the turnover ratio that we had last year. This is not due to any lack of skill or production, but rather just luck. Luck is an element of the game that cannot be fully eliminated or accounted for. An oblong ball, when rolling free, can go any number of ways. Player position does not always determine where it ends up. That is why I will not be surprised to hear that the Niners 2012 turnover stats are worse than the 2011 ones.

yup, we got a lot of fortuitous bounces in 2011.

We have one of the best front offices in the league? Not that I disagree, but it's a amazing what a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, we had some rookie head coach, people complaining that we made a mistake to promote from within, and needed to bring in someone in a Bill Parcells type of role to oversea Trent Baalke. We wanted to draft Patrick Peterson or Prince Amukamara. Some even wanted Blaine Gabbert. I'll admit I was on the Robert Quinn bandwagon. we have really come a long way. I'm still not used to hearing such positive commentary everytime we are mentioned on TV. It's like being ugly all your life and all of a sudden you're the hottest thing in the room.

I think we should build upon our success. The offense will be better and the defense should be even more dominating. The only dropoffs I expect to see are in turnovers and maybe in the play of Justin Smith. No way he repeats that performance, but the drop off won't be by much.

Originally posted by 99problems:

Originally posted by chico49erfan:

Originally posted by Joecool:
They keep talking about our defense but defenses don't repeat what our defense did. We missed a prime opportunity to win a SB last season. The big if is whether or not our Offense can take the next step and make up for any drop-off of stuff that can't be game planned for such as turnovers.

and defenses with that many new starters learning a new system never do what That defense did.
With all starters returning and a offseason i will take those odds any day

Exactly. So we don't force as many turnovers. Big deal. We didn't force any (that the ref didn't reverse - a*****e) in the NFCC and the defense played lights out. They were just bullying the Giants around.